Jeff Kirk

Meteorologist/former Broadcast, veteran Rideshare Driver. Ranked in Top 20 of competitive putters at Amateur Tee2Green Golf. Animal Lover.

[Jeff Kirk @JeffKirkWeather]

Godzilla is coming…

[Colin McCarthy @US_Stormwatch]

The 2026-27 El Niño is simply astonishing.

Tropical Pacific waters are running nearly 7 weeks ahead of where they’ve ever been at this point in an El Niño cycle in modern history.

Models now put the peak strength at 3.6°C on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), the new standard for measuring El Niño that adjusts for background ocean warming from climate change.

That would beat the previous record (Dec. 1877, the strongest El Niño ever observed) by 0.7°C. In the context of climate, that’s completely blowing the previous record out of the water. For context, an El Niño is informally considered a Super El Niño when, for 3 months, the Niño 3.4 index is 2.0°C or above.

Frankly, expect extreme climate and weather impacts over the next 12-18 months.

Forecasts have also been consistently, aggressively wet for California and the southern US. Many of California’s largest floods have hit during El Niño years, and in very strong events, El Niño typically becomes the single best predictor of a very wet winter in California. It also elevates the odds of a megaflood in the state. @Weather_West’s research found 7 of 8 modeled ARkStorms occurred during moderate-to-strong El Niño years.

The bigger picture: 2027 could be the first year Earth briefly touches 2°C above preindustrial levels. With each successive model update, the forecasted strength of El Niño is increasing, with ensembles now putting a 94% chance on a Super El Niño this winter. Virtually certain.

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

CEO of Anthropic (Claude):
“it’s my worry that in 6–12 months such a swarm could be capable of taking over the entire internet with a persistent botnet(potentially causing hundreds of billions of dollars in damage), and that the scale of damage would continue to increase from there if AI becomes more powerful without the necessary guardrails.”

[Jeff Kirk @JeffKirkWeather]

@edgarrmcgregor Whatever adds to the warmth of the water up to SoCal will just enhance any tropical moisture plumes that head that way later this month/October plus add fuel to what will be a screaming subtropical jet setting up this fall/winter.

[Jeff Kirk @JeffKirkWeather]

As you probably know by now, I don’t trust the Orange Buffoon with a 10 foot pole. (1) We’re far better off having him OUT than getting a $5,000 bandaid. (2) He is a proven pathological liar. Don’t do it, people. Are you really going to fall for this a$$hole AGAIN??? Please NO.

[The Associated Press @AP]

President Donald Trump pledged to send every American adult $5,000 if Republicans retain control of the House and Senate in the midterm elections. The promise, made at the GOP's midterm convention in Dallas, could cost over $1 trillion and would require congressional approval. https://t.co/bObutXdLFw

[Jeff Kirk @JeffKirkWeather]

Pretty much unforecasted rain from what I could tell, at least to this extent. First pic current, second is HRRR sim. WOW! A tease for what is to come next few months, not just SoCal. I’m talking to you in the Southeast. It’s gonna be CRAZY! #GodzillaElNino

[Jeff Kirk @JeffKirkWeather]

Nice moisture plume impacting SoCal today, originating from distant Hurricane Marie in the hyperactive tropical Pacific, brought in by upper level steering. #GodzillaElNino

[Jeff Kirk @JeffKirkWeather]

This is Bullshit. Fight your own war. Send your kids to die in vain for your greedy, terrorist goals.

[MascMillennial @MascMillennial]

I thought for sure this had to be fake. What are we even doing anymore man.

[Sen. Bernie Sanders @SenSanders]

No, President Trump. The American people don’t want to rename Lake Ontario Lake America.

They want affordable healthcare, childcare, housing, education & nutrition assistance — all of which you have massively cut in order to pay for your $1 trillion tax break to the top 1%.

[Jeff Kirk @JeffKirkWeather]

Unbelievable

[Nikhil saini @iNikhilsaini]

This is seriously scary. CCTV footage from Gyirong Port in Tibet, China, directly opposite Nepal’s Rasuwa district. This flash flood hit here first and later caused massive havoc in Nepal. Can’t even imagine someone surviving this. Prayers for everyone affected. 🙏

[Jeff Kirk @JeffKirkWeather]

This is a tough one. Rest In Peace.

[Dolly Parton @DollyParton]

Global icon and humanitarian, Dolly Parton, known to the world as a beloved singer, songwriter, philanthropist, actress, playwright, and author died peacefully today in Nashville, Tennessee. She was 80 years old.

Dolly is preceded in death by her beloved husband of 59 years Carl Thomas Dean (1942 – 2025), her mother Avie Lee Caroline Owens (1923 – 2003), and father, Robert Lee Parton, Sr. (1921 – 2000).

A rhinestone life that shone bright enough for the world to see, Dolly will forever stand as an inspiration not only through her timeless music and prolific songwriting, but also her wit, warmth, and kindness that made us all feel like family. Dolly Parton’s legacy is one of love, compassion, and resilience. With a seven-decade career, she inspired multiple generations of artists and fans with her music and an unwavering commitment to making the world a better place. Her songs will continue to resonate with people of all ages, and her philanthropic work will have a lasting impact.

At Dolly’s request, a small, private service will be held for immediate family. Dolly’s fans and friends from around the world are encouraged to pay tribute to Dolly on social media by tagging @DollyParton or by leaving a message at https://t.co/cLu9I7M2wC

In lieu of flowers the family asks for donations to be made to Dolly Parton’s Imagination Library at https://t.co/arzrqInqJA

[Michael Snyder @SeattleWXGuy]

In your wildest El Nino Fantasy, you wouldnt dare come up with something so ridiculous as compared to whats going on now. Complete El Nino perfection and still getting stronger. These up coming months and into 2027 are going to be a wild ride....

[Jeff Kirk @JeffKirkWeather]

@WeatherProf Agreed, the flooding and tornado potential coast to coast across the South shouldn’t be underestimated. That includes unusual frequency of tornado threats in SoCal in addition to obvious places like FL. If it somehow isn’t too bad, then great.

[Colin McCarthy @US_Stormwatch]

A Category 5 marine heatwave has been ongoing along the coast of Peru in recent weeks due to El Niño. Water temperatures have reached up to 13°F (7°C) above normal.

Lima, the capital city, recorded a tropical night in the middle of winter on August 14, with a low of 71°F (21.7°C), its warmest August night ever recorded.

This El Niño is in its own league.

[Jeff Kirk @JeffKirkWeather]

@boston_drives Yep, and the only thing that goes up on the turbo zones are the mins on the short rides you get. Obscene fare replacement on many medium and most longer rides, at least where I am. The only time all rides are great is when there is a big event, and then the turbos don't matter!

[Jeff Kirk @JeffKirkWeather]

@ClarkKenwxman I've been doing a deep dive with my AI assistant (how times have changed, right?) and a couple things that really stand out right now are the ARMOR3D deep ocean heat vault (+5 to +8C) and the Indian Ocean Dipole Alignment. Able to defy PDO, MJO stuff. We'll see, stay safe.

[Jeff Kirk @JeffKirkWeather]

I am concerned about the power of this strengthening, unprecedented #GodzillaElNino. Severe flooding and an unusual frequency of tornadoes this fall/winter highlight my concerns. From coast to coast across the South, especially CA, TX, Gulf Coast, Florida, Georgia, Carolinas.

[Matthew Todd 🌏🔥 @MrMatthewTodd]

Clearly it’s not far off now.

The ‘grandfather of climate change’ Dr James Hansen @DrJamesEHansen

[Jeff Kirk @JeffKirkWeather]

Welcome to the team Camden Brown lol. #GSU #Cowboys

[Jeff Kirk @JeffKirkWeather]

So, apparently, big earthquakes connected to each other from the opposite (antipode) side of the world is a thing. Venezuela then Colombia and just now, Indonesia. See @StefanBurnsGeo for more. Also, can't help but wonder if the #GodzillaElNino plays a role in causing more quakes

[Jeff Kirk @JeffKirkWeather]

Show this to people who say our current rate of climate change is normal, thanks.

[Climate Dad @ClimateDad77]

The gently sloping line at the bottom is our world 252 million years ago, when temperatures increased by 8C across 60,000 years killing 90% of all species.

It is a period known as The Great Dying.

That vertical red line is the world our children live in.

[Jeff Kirk @JeffKirkWeather]

@WeatherProf I also think higher dew points (than models realize) from the Pacific likely get transported east in blowtorch fashion, resulting in significantly warmer nights, so the amount of “cool” on some of these models may be overdone, until late winter during sharp decline of the El Niño

[InfoGram @_InfoGram_]

Abdul El-Sayed is now Trump’s new headache after brutally defeating his teammate 🔥🔥

🇺🇸Trump: "Abdul doesn't love Israel. He hates them."

🇺🇸Abdul: "Nah I love America. I love people. Americans come first for me. Unlike you, I’m not about to ship our money to Israel for wars that kill people."🔥🔥

What a courage 👏. He absolutely cooked him💪