Dr. Mike Israetel on the economic fallacy he says explains why AI won't cause mass unemployment:
"Once we have 4 billion robots doing labor in the world, which we're like orders of magnitude off of that currently, then we've just only doubled the human workforce."
"From 1700 to today, we've 10 or 20x'd the human labor force. And, seemingly, the economy's not like, ah, we don't need any more people, that's enough. We could just consistently have better jobs and pay people even more money."
"This idea that robots are gonna show up and all of a sudden we're all completely unemployed makes a technical fallacy in economics called lump of labor fallacy. It's the idea that all the jobs currently are the only jobs that could be."
"Imagine in 1750, you're like, well, 98% of us work in farming, and then you come back from the future and you're like, you guys, 2% of people in the 1990s work in farming. It'd be like, so everyone's starving to death? Like, no, no, we're super fat, actually."
@misraetel
Seems crazy but it’s real. They’re consulting on plans to downrank independent YouTubers in favour of “the beloved shows and valued services that the nation’s trusted and regulated broadcasters provide” on misinformation grounds. https://t.co/ZEm06fk9XF
Brilliant stuff, more vibes-based policy decision making. This is what demagogues do btw. To put it differently: imagine if Nigel Farage won power and then decided to cut contracts with organisations he did not ideologically agree with, citing them as ‘woke’ or similar.
Interesting FT piece with some more detail on Andy Burnham's AI strategy, including a reassessment of driverless cars in London
Slightly strange use of the word "headlong" to describe a multi-year process to adopt something that's already commonplace in the US and China
We can finally say AI isn't killing jobs.
A new paper from me, @tryramp, and @RevelioLabs uses firm-level spend and workforce data across 21K U.S. businesses to measure AI's impact on jobs.
Firms that adopt AI heavily grow headcount 10% over two years following adoption. Low adopters see no statistically significant change.
Burnham's speech is bigger for what it doesn't say. All this focus on industrialisation, without seemingly any recognition that industry in Britain struggles because of Government policy - on energy costs, regulatory costs, employment costs, and so on. Pure vibes