Jessica Butt

Adelaide Capital

[Eric Nuttall @ericnuttall]

Of the ~36,000 well bores in the Middle East ~10,000 of them have been shut-in resulting in production down ~12MM Bbl/d. Sultan Al-Jaber of the UAE said will take at least 4 months to return 80% of supply. An oilfield service co. warned me of >700k bbl/d of potential capacity damage. Yet, a journalist today writes of a "flood" in a matter of weeks. No wonder consensus is so bearish!

[Dan McTeague @GasPriceWizard]

Their policies and regulations ARE the reason for food, fuel and housing inflation

[Dan McTeague @GasPriceWizard]

And Canadians were warned.

But they foolishly chose “Elbows Up”

They’re now “Ankles Up”

Voting unwisely for a fourth time is now a Canadian trait

[Adelaide Capital @adelaide_cap]

🔎 A Look at What’s Happening Across the Adelaide Capital Network

➡️ @ATEX_Resources has announced drill results from its Valeriano Copper-Gold Project in Chile, extending the high-grade B2B Breccia strike and expanding the mineralized corridor
➡️ @EMP_MetalsCorp increased its financing to $2,000,000, closed its first tranche financing, and announced a further increase to $3,000,000
➡️ @GoldQuest_GQC extended high-grade VMS mineralization at Cachimbo and reported high-grade assay results from Romero metallurgical drilling in the Dominican Republic
➡️ @HorizonHPL expected to commence operations at the Lachowice gas development in Poland
➡️ @mayfair_gold continued to build its project team with the addition of a director of projects. Sierra Madre received Mexican antitrust approval for the acquisition of the Del Toro mine

Subscribe to our newsletter for full updates, event information and info about this week’s Feature Company: @BorealisMining 📬

$BOGO.V $BORMF $GQC.V $GDQMF $MINE $MFG.V $EMPS.CN $EMPPF $HPL.V $ATX $ATXRF

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

There’s an important distinction here that needs to be clarified.

Oil inventories exist to provide buffers in the event of unforeseen accidents.

When you run oil inventories to operational minimums, gasoline and distillate (3 weeks), crude (8 weeks), you are not out of inventory. You are just out of buffer inventory.

From this point forward, you are living paycheck to paycheck. Any minor disruption will cascade through the supply chain, which would create regional shortages.

To prevent the scenario of not having enough products, an efficient market would, in theory, force the end user to start competing for the marginal barrel.

We have not seen any of that. As a result, the market has kept prices depressed, and drained excess buffers.

So are we out of oil? No. But living paycheck to paycheck is not ideal.

[Jessica Butt @JessicaLButt]

@SPH_75

[Adelaide Capital @adelaide_cap]

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[Eric Nuttall @ericnuttall]

The UAE is building a ~1.4MM Bbl/d, 370km pipeline costing ~$4BN USD, started in 2025 and onstream in 2027. Canada aims to potentially build a 1MM Bbl/d pipeline, to cost ~$40BN, take 8+years, and is tying it to an obsolete/costly $30BN Pathways project. See the difference???

[Eric Nuttall @ericnuttall]

If the cost of a new 1MM Bbl/d pipeline is Pathways, a $30BN project conceived in a vastly different world that erodes our competitiveness, then I say nay. It took me 4 hours to get my 6 year old an ankle x-ray last night...we do not have to live like this, yet choose to. Sad.

[Dan McTeague @GasPriceWizard]

The stuff is now hitting the fan.

Let’s see futures traders ignore this and continue to short sell

Fools

[Adelaide Capital @adelaide_cap]

🛎️ REMINDER: @SHARCenergy will be LIVE tomorrow at 1 p.m. ET. 🛎️

🔗Register here: https://t.co/93a5lnyE44

[Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ @CommodMkt]

This is the Revenge of the Old Economy in real time.

A super cycle already underway before Hormuz closed.
Brent will break out. The security premium is not transitory.

Three drivers. Not fading. Intensifying.

Deglobalization. Electrification. Redistribution.

All three turbo-charged versus our 2020 super cycle call.

We are still in the bottom of the first inning. None of the imbalances have been resolved. They grow by the day.

Own the grains/softs. Own the metals. Own the molecules.

Remember, you cannot print molecules https://t.co/XQpR4p4HPL.

10/10

[Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ @CommodMkt]

Welcome to the most asymmetric trade in modern financial history.

The thread below lays out why. The opportunity exists because capital has chased the AI trade while ignoring the physical assets AI requires to run — assets that have quietly become the best-performing asset class of the decade. Since October 2020 when we first called for the commodity super cycle: QCI Total Return +217%, GSCI Total Return +205%, Gold +140%. NASDAQ trails at +130%. S&P 500 at +85%. The top three are all commodities. Yet oil cannot get out of its own way while copper and the broader atom complex prints fresh highs . That is the dislocation. That is the trade.

Get long. Buckle in. Hang on for the ride.

Forgive the longer posts in this thread — attempting to mimic my old 10-bullet commodity takes. On to it.

[Eric Nuttall @ericnuttall]

Helima Croft: "we are very skeptical of a June grand reopening or even that maritime traffic will return to February 27 levels for the foreseeable future."

Even with a July reopening, we now think the world will forfeit >1.8BN barrels of oil, a staggering sum that the world is completely apathetic to. Safety buffers (SPR, inventory surplus, ships in transit) have now been exhausted and demand is set to seasonally strengthen. We expect regional product shortages to soon begin to manifest leading to a reality check in the coming weeks. The oil price will have to act as the balancing mechanism requiring a significantly higher price, and given the to-date effective WH jawboning, will now last longer than it would have without the direct market intervention. Oil equities are discounting $70WTI or lower and we think the 2027 WTI strip of $75 is too low. Complacency = opportunity.

[Dan McTeague @GasPriceWizard]

Word 👇

[Dan McTeague @GasPriceWizard]

Can’t wait for the climate crowd I Canada to start demanding China - their new partner in”diversification” of trade, switched to renewables to power the building and export of EVs, solar panels, batteries and windmill

[Tantalus Systems • TSX:GRID, OTCQX:TGMPF @TantalusCorp]

The TRUSense Gateway™ is a multi-purpose device that creates a secure communication pathway via fiber, ethernet or cellular network to other devices deployed across the distribution grid, including behind the meter.

→ Streams substation-quality, grid-edge power measurements in near real time
→ Detects and helps address power quality issues
→ Can be installed in any ANSI meter socket, so utilities can continue using the meters they already have installed
→ Already in use by a growing number of utilities

All operating in an always-on, industrial IoT network built for the modern grid.

[Dan McTeague @GasPriceWizard]

It’s about time these giants push back

[Dan McTeague @GasPriceWizard]

Rod should familiarize himself with the “Clean Fuel Regulation” which requires refiners to pay an indulgence tax by buying carbon credits to reduce emissions 30% by 2030, because NO technology exists anywhere that can achieve it

Yes, Rod, there is a hidden carbon tax on fuel