@sonusvarghese@tylermacro10 Would look like Trichet / ECB? Or said otherwise - hikes that quickly are followed by weakening real data / inflation data that are too soon to plausibly have been the effect of those hikes, so are then unwound.
@VKMacro And Barr. But really if Waller and cook switch youβre at 5. Canβt see him wanting to hold on 5 dissents. So if Waller and cook goβ¦ they prob are hiking
@macropotamus Speaks of difficulty of getting inflation back to target no? Took experience of 5-10% for 2 years to basically reset from 1.8 to 2.4-2.7 which is where (I think) we are now. How do you get from 2.4-2.7 back to 2?
@dMacro_dBS Seems about right framework but the core CPI required for July seems far too high? 0.25 cpi probably 0.3 core pce. His framework today could easily point to hiking ?
@ericwallerstein When they wrote down core pce forecast in Dec 2025 they thought it would be 2.5% this year. Now, with a favorable methodology shift, itβs going to be around 3.1%. Thatβs not easier in real terms?
@DannyDayan5 Iβm just saying even with PCE which has its own issues β¦ inflation in US has been 10-20bp below Norway and rates 25bp lower. So i would think theyβre approx in the same spot?