Market thoughts very simple right now
68-72k is the area where a perfect long with clean invalidation below presents itself. But not sure if you get that good an entry
If you took profits with me on the way up, that’s when you size up again
Charts tomorrow
My ideal scenario on bitcoin:native is this...
I have talked about how important it is that we continue to hold and stay above 2025 Yearly Lows, that has been my bull-case/bear-case thesis.
Above it, we can continue to move higher, below it we need to be open for downside.
As long as we continue to hold above $74,492 area on weekly closes, I remain bullish and looking for more upside.
Ideally, we continue up from here, next level of importance to me would be 2025 Summer Lows, around $98,173. We drive higher towards that area before seeing a real correction.
When does that real correction come? You guessed it, around or after Mid-Terms of this year. Post Mid-Term corrections have been dimensioning each cycle. 2018: -52%, 2022: -27% and for 2026 I think somewhere from -17% to -20% would be a good target for that correction that occurs.
A correction of roughly -20% from the 2025 Summer Lows would basically put us where we are sitting right now, $78k-$76k.
History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes is a good saying for this because although it hasn't painted exactly like prior years, I think it has been close enough for the bottom to be in on bitcoin:native.
When prices exceeds the 10/10 Massacre wick ($102,329), its full on balls to the wall ATH's and clear blue skies time.
Same thoughts as Shark here. Things probably slow a bit, no reason to force anything but still want to stay active and continuiang to watch PA because the move
will likely happen quick when it does.
$ETH
$ETH - This isn't bearish, it's the reality that after such an explosive move things often consolidate. A lot of people will over trade consolidation instead of being patient.
Currently we seeing a rejection from the 81k level, which would dictate that we still in a downtrend until proven otherwise.
I know everyone is bullish, I know everyone says we back. We indeed look very optimistic and definitally not calling 40k from here.
But factual, we didn’t break previous high 82.4k, we still in a lower high downtrend.
For me, scalping and playing the range, ideally I want to see the 74k level tested again, why? Previous ATH, and severe hold level for break below or continuation up.
10/10 was insanely unhealthy, but so was last week.
Currently in healthy profits, across the board, scalping/ intra day playing the range(s)
$btc
ethereum:native
Forming a range here- currently have a set of poor highs on the 3D profile so if we sell off the best area to long would be below 2300
Continuation setup is the gameplan
$ETH - Kind of a similar setup as last time if this is the bottom. Would be happy for an acceleration straight to $3k but consolidation would actually be bullish to build a new base. This is usually how the market gets people to close longs before the next move up by chopping.
$BTC 1W
As euphoric as everyone was last week I think its important to zoom out.
We failed to break & close a new macro high + we closed with bearish divergences. We're ultimately retaining bear market structure that could very easily take us back to lows.
Be careful!
$BTC has now formed intra bear divs as its rejected 80k resistance with somewhat low volume.
Again - way more macro bullish signs but this doesn’t mean we can’t put in one last low.
Important to watch this week’s close!
A few months ago I said that at some point we’d get a substantial bounce strong enough to make everyone scream “the bull market is back.”
Well, I’m sorry to tell you: it’s not.
I expect the next leg down to be fast and painful. $BTC
Not many calling the pico lows on $ETH months in advance.
We recognized $1,559 nPOC print mid-June and create a “Long Entry” based on that print.
Not only did we locate that area, we also took the trade and capitalized on it.
+52% move, since then. Trade walked through with all VIP members each day with our telegram and livestreams.
"Regardless what people believe or think, I am still in the mindset long term these are going to be great buying opportunities, even if they aren't "correct" in the beginning."
$BTC +20%
$ETH +52%
Since this post. Premium and Discounted range trading.
Roman is the only $BTC trader on my timeline who played this cycle from top to bottom with real conviction.
Took a lot of heat for calling a $60k bottom while price was still above $100k.
Bought near the lows and has been calling the moves cleanly ever since.
Must follow @Roman_Trading