The man who once said he would sell his kidney before selling his Bitcoin has finally sold.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have now seen 13 consecutive days of net outflows, totaling $4.37 billion, the longest outflow streak on record.
BTC has also broken below its monthly EMA50 support at $65k.
I’m not trying to be bearish. I just don’t think we should pretend the risks aren’t there.
The bigger issue is this: BTC is falling while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are hitting new highs. Institutional capital is chasing AI, not crypto. As Bloomberg analysts put it, BTC is now “stuck in the middle”: neither the best safe-haven asset, nor the best growth asset. That is the real market dilemma right now.
Could $50k happen?
Technically, BTC has already lost its monthly EMA50 support at $65k. The next key support sits around the 50-month SMA at $59k, followed by the $52k-$48k range.
Fundamentally, CPI is picking up, Fed cuts look increasingly unlikely, ETF outflows have yet to stop, DAT dividend pressure remains unresolved, and upcoming IPOs from SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic could further drain liquidity. These are all very real structural pressures.
Looking back, the last time Saylor sold Bitcoin in 2022, it was almost exactly the bottom of the previous cycle. This time, after he sold at $77k, BTC briefly fell below $62k. If history rhymes, maybe we are already getting close to a local bottom.
I remain long-term bullish on BTC. After all, the long-term trend of global monetary expansion has not changed. But being bullish does not mean ignoring risk.
Stronger liquidity, easing structural sell pressure, ETF inflows returning, and crypto narratives coming back are the real signals of stabilization.
Until then, staying clear-headed matters more than staying optimistic.
#NFA #DYOR