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Alex Caruso over 11.5 PRA

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Posted hours early in Discord. Analysis⬇️
Alex Caruso is in a very strong spot tonight given both the matchup and the minutes he should see.

OKC is getting back Jalen Williams tonight, but will still be without SGA and Ajay Mitchell. Even when OKC is fully healthy, Caruso is a key piece and he typically gets mid 20's minutes in competitive games.

The thing with the Thunder is the fact they have had plenty of blowouts against bad teams (typically at home). Game is @ LAL here and OKC is without their best player, so I am expecting the game to stay reasonably competitive.

That's important as Caruso has averaged 24 mins in games decided by 10 or less pts this season. Last season in these games, he also averaged 24 minutes and 15.4 PRA per game (over this line in 20/26 games).

Caruso returned from injury 2 games ago, he's seen 19 and 26.5 minutes. Notably the low min game was a massive 36 point blowout win where he didn't touch the court in the 4th. His rotation vs HOU last game was playing about 6-7 mins per qtr, I expect that here tonight vs LAL.

To get a big enough sample going back to the beginning of last season, Caruso has a 15.45 USG, 16.0 AST% and 7.12 total reb% with SGA off the court. In this sample he has averaged 14.95 PRA per 24 mins.

Since joining OKC when Alex gets 23-28 mins, he has covered this prop in 27/31 games and averages 16.9 PRA. Specifically in 3 games with SGA out and JDub in, Caruso has averaged 10 FG+FTA and 10 reb+ast opportunities per game.

Matchup looks great, Lakers are 22nd in DEF rating and allow the 6th most PRA to his position. Coach JJ Redick usually is fine leaving lesser shooters open and enticing them to get usage, Caruso should see plenty of good looks here.

In 3 games vs LAL since joining the Thunder, he's had 12, 16 and 17 PRA on an avg of 8.33 FGA in just 17.66 mins. Great spot and value here, it's also a "revenge" game against his former team for what it's worth.

Widely available on many different DFS sites and sportsbooks, this is at 10.5 at a select few places BET365/MGM. Best odds at 11.5 PRA is -106 at FD currently.
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