JKE

Management consultant and value investor. Tweets are not investment advice. Luke 12:48

[JKE @jkecapital]

@TripleNetInvest This is nonsense. Berkshire’s most succesful investments: GEICO, Coca Cola, Gilette, AMEX were all long term investments driven by compounding, not short-term insider plays. Buffett understood what most investors don’t focusing on long-term durable economics.

[JKE @jkecapital]

Seth Klarman adds a position in MOH according to his Q4 2025 13F filing released today. Great to see one of the value investing GOAT’s adding here.

[JKE @jkecapital]

Health insurers got hammered in 2025, but one stands out as a mispriced gem: Molina Healthcare ($MOH). It’s an excellent business with industry-leading cost control , yet it’s priced as if 2025’s challenges are the new normal at 11x 2026 earnings. Here’s a breakdown 🧵:

[JKE @jkecapital]

I posted an update to my Molina Healthcare thesis following their Q4 2025 earnings report yesterday.

Check it out here:
https://t.co/qPLZBrwS4J

[JKE @jkecapital]

Health insurers got hammered in 2025, but one stands out as a mispriced gem: Molina Healthcare ($MOH). It’s an excellent business with industry-leading cost control , yet it’s priced as if 2025’s challenges are the new normal at 11x 2026 earnings. Here’s a breakdown 🧵:

[JKE @jkecapital]

@SayNoToTrading This is an unprecedented time; one no insurer was prepared for hence the volatility in earnings and guidance. Not a broken business, their competitive advantages remain and pay dividends in times like these.

[JKE @jkecapital]

@SayNoToTrading If you believe “management doesn’t know what they’re doing” than how would you explain their industry leading cost efficient in both care delivery and SG&A as well as capital allocation evident in their extremely strong historical ROIC.

[JKE @jkecapital]

@DeepIceValue Bottom line these are short term earnings headwinds, not long-term threats to UNH - the largest and most profitable managed care provider.

[JKE @jkecapital]

@DeepIceValue The 0.09% headline scare is misleading because Medicare Advantage economics are not driven primarily by the base rate. Insurers’ revenue per member is also influenced by risk adjustment, star ratings, and bid dynamics, which have historically offset low base updates. (1/2)

[JKE @jkecapital]

@DeepIceValue CMS cannot structurally underpay Medicare Advantage for long without insurers exiting markets and seniors losing coverage, which creates political and operational pressure to allow the economics to normalize. We’ve seen this cycle repeatedly over the past decade. (2/2)

[JKE @jkecapital]

@DeepIceValue Interesting to see a “deep value investor” that gets upset when a share price dips. If you’re confident in the long-term economics of the business why does this matter? It should only create a buying opportunity.

[JKE @jkecapital]

@mutuaIfunds @TheRonnieVShow People don’t even know what they’re buying these days

[JKE @jkecapital]

@TheIcahnist Well done, thanks for sharing!

[JKE @jkecapital]

@oguzerkan Very good, thanks for sharing!

[JKE @jkecapital]

@QualityInvest5 There’s a lot of question marks and investors don’t like uncertainty. They’re paying quite a premium.

[JKE @jkecapital]

@aakashgupta A 13F shows positions, not intent. Citadel runs long/short, market making, stat-arb, and options at once. Those tech holdings could be hedges, pair trades, or inventory. You can’t see net exposure or holding period. Inferring an AI thesis from this is a ridiculousness.

[JKE @jkecapital]

@DividendDynasty Meta might be the biggest “value” trap in the market right now

[JKE @jkecapital]

@InvestInAssets I always laugh when I see people claim META is “undervalued” because they have a lower P/E than the rest of the MAG 7. Meta has destroyed significant value by allocating capital to speculative investments, likely doing the same with AI.

[JKE @jkecapital]

@F_Compounders EBTIDA is useful for capex/inventory light businesses as a rough benchmark as to how much cash flow is available to service debt (useful in PE)

[JKE @jkecapital]

Full in-depth analysis and valuation details are available in my Substack (for free) post here: https://t.co/L0ydy7ymkk

[JKE @jkecapital]

Health insurers got hammered in 2025, but one stands out as a mispriced gem: Molina Healthcare ($MOH). It’s an excellent business with industry-leading cost control , yet it’s priced as if 2025’s challenges are the new normal at 11x 2026 earnings. Here’s a breakdown 🧵:

[JKE @jkecapital]

If EPS bounces back to ~$22–24 (close to 2024’s level), a normal valuation (~13–15× P/E) would put $MOH well into the $300s. In short, the market is pricing in a worst-case scenario, while Molina’s earnings power should recover as conditions normalize. 11/11