John K. Warden

defense and foreign policy analyst @Livermore_Lab | [email protected] | former #NSC46 @HASCDemocrats @IDA_org @PacificForum @CSIS @SAICinc

[John K. Warden @jkwarden]

My latest with @RebeccaLissner in the Mar/Apr issue of @ForeignAffairs -- "Ukraine and the New Way of War: Learning the Right Lessons for the Conflicts of the Future" https://t.co/aXY640EtuR

[Foreign Affairs @ForeignAffairs]

“The war in Ukraine laid bare the reality of nuclear risk in the twenty-­first century,” write @RebeccaLissner and John Kawika Warden. “But it has also demonstrated the limits of nuclear threats in compelling submission.”
https://t.co/FyHAT7nnXY

[Foreign Affairs @ForeignAffairs]

“If Washington fails to learn from its experience in Ukraine, it will find itself dangerously ill equipped to wage a great-power war, at a moment when the likelihood of such a conflict is growing,” warn @RebeccaLissner and John Kawika Warden.
https://t.co/jWVLFhHoD3

[Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists @BulletinAtomic]

"Golden Dome and arms control: impediment or opportunity?" by @pranayrvaddi and @jkwarden.

This Bulletin magazine article is available to all readers for a limited time. ⬇️
https://t.co/xzcc6uYok0

[John K. Warden @jkwarden]

@shashj @TheEconomist Limited War in the Nuclear Age by Mort Halperin

[Institute for Defense Analyses @IDA_org]

#ICYMI: IDA researcher @jkwarden was a panelist at the @CNASdc virtual conversation on April 20 about China's nuclear buildup and the risk of nuclear escalation in a war to defend Taiwan. Watch below.

[CNAS @CNASdc]

LIVE: A discussion of the CNAS report "Avoiding the Brink: Escalation Management in a War to Defend Taiwan" with authors @StaciePettyjohn and @hannahddennis + panelists Dr. Phillip C. Saunders and @jkwarden. Join the conversation with #CNAS2023 https://t.co/aYGAmF5unQ

[John K. Warden @jkwarden]

@Ryan_M_Tully 🤣

[John K. Warden @jkwarden]

@JohnHar05137790 @IDA_org Thank you, sir! You’re far too kind. I wouldn’t have had the opportunity without your support, and am extremely grateful!

[Institute for Defense Analyses @IDA_org]

#NewsRelease: John K. Warden Honored for Contributions During IDA Fellowship https://t.co/8BBkwYeQ0L

[John K. Warden @jkwarden]

@DavidSantoro1 The time has been right since at least 2015… https://t.co/b7qguh5UI5

[John K. Warden @jkwarden]

@NarangVipin At least in theory, they also could be better for endurance (an attribute not discussed enough), promptness, and survival against convention counterforce.

[John K. Warden @jkwarden]

@harries_matthew You've seen this? https://t.co/Mj644k0cBU More explanation of the justification than in the factsheet.

[John K. Warden @jkwarden]

@NarangVipin @JackieGSchneid Hah, fair enough. I certainly won't die on the hill of calling deterring X from doing Y "tailored deterrence"!

[John K. Warden @jkwarden]

@NarangVipin @JackieGSchneid I’d say that’s core to understanding and mitigating the risk of inadvertent escalation. And, from my perspective, is usually what people mean when they say we need to "tailor deterrence."

[John K. Warden @jkwarden]

@NarangVipin @JackieGSchneid there is certainly utility in thinking about how US obj., regional posture, approaches to competition and warfighting, etc. need to be adapted to countries that have dif. objectives, capabilities, geographic positions, concepts of deterrence and esc., experience in conflict, etc.

[John K. Warden @jkwarden]

@daltman_IR Is that an example of a "fait accompli"? Depends on your definition. Regardless, I think this is the military problem that @ElbridgeColby et al. are focused on.

[John K. Warden @jkwarden]

@daltman_IR ...then convince the U.S. to accommodate the new SQ--Taiwan becoming part of the PRC--rather than take on the high cost of dislodging a PLA force entrenched on Taiwan.