CNAS

The Center for a New American Security develops strong, pragmatic, and principled national security and defense policies. Join us:

[CNAS @CNASdc]

“Understanding Russia’s Calculus on Opportunistic Aggression in Europe,” lays out the case of a future Indo-Pacific conflict drawing U.S. forces away from Europe, where Putin could see it as his best chance to test NATO. https://t.co/iNsfHrdPj9

[CNAS @CNASdc]

Reports indicate that China fed Iran satellite imagery to help target a U.S. base in Jordan and Russia did the same ahead of a strike in Saudi Arabia.

@RHFontaine and @AKendallTaylor look at how Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea are learning to make their network work, without ever fighting each other’s wars https://t.co/XqaMvAATGx

[CNAS @CNASdc]

In a 2025 report, @AKendallTaylor and @lokker_n argue Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was the critical catalyst for deepening cooperation among Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. https://t.co/lISxw26x1q

[CNAS @CNASdc]

Check out our full documentary, Digital Lifelines 👇
https://t.co/J6TMrIysqo

[CNAS @CNASdc]

Thank you to DCM Felipe F. Cariño @philippinesusa and Andrea Yang @TECRO_USA for a great conversation today on protecting subsea cables in the Pacific. Moderated by @RyanHClaffey.

[CNAS @CNASdc]

Tune in for a live discussion on subsea cables
https://t.co/004GLJzex1

[CNAS @CNASdc]

"For the Philippines it's a matter of survival." DCM Felipe Cariño III on the importance of subsea cables.

[CNAS @CNASdc]

Watch the live event: https://t.co/004GLJyGHt

[CNAS @CNASdc]

Felipe Cariño III discusses the importance of multilateral cooperation in securing the Indo-Pacific region.

[CNAS @CNASdc]

LIVE a discussion on the risks posed to subsea cables by China's increasing gray zone warfare tactics and how the U.S. and allies should respond. With Felipe Cariño III, Andrea Yang @TECRO_USA, @RyanHClaffey, and @RHFontaine
https://t.co/004GLJyGHt

[CNAS @CNASdc]

Digital Lifelines https://t.co/004GLJzex1

[Ryan Claffey @RyanHClaffey]

🇺🇸🇵🇭🇹🇼 China is waging gray-zone warfare against subsea cables connecting the U.S., the Philippines, and Taiwan. Allied action is urgently needed

Excited to share Digital Lifelines, my new CNAS documentary short. Watch the full documentary below

[CNAS @CNASdc]

Register here: https://t.co/BJbgFeCqUa

[CNAS @CNASdc]

Tomorrow! @AKendallTaylor joins @ForeignPolicy's @RaviReports at 1pm ET to discuss Kyiv's path forward as the US begins to purchase Russian diesel and Russian ties with North Korea, Iran and China deepen.

[CNAS @CNASdc]

Are you a graduate student or young professional interested in national security?

Enter the CNAS and @BreakingDefense Pathfinder essay competition for the chance for publication, and honorarium and entry to the 2027 CNAS national security conference.

Apply by November 8! https://t.co/3JMPn57FTb

[CNAS @CNASdc]

Read the full report here: https://t.co/P5lwnnSbbV

[CNAS @CNASdc]

@CarltonHaelig explains how AI could transform military supply, maintenance and logistics well before autonomous weapons enter the force.

[Richard Fontaine @RHFontaine]

U.S. policy toward Russia and Ukraine has reached a turning point:

1. The President just waived sanctions on Russia, weeks after he signed the Graham bill that imposes them. He struck a deal to buy Russian diesel despite previously putting tariffs on countries, like India, that import Russian oil. And the President announced an energy ceasefire that, while desirable, neither Russia nor Ukraine agreed to.

2. Then there’s the mounting pressure on Ukraine. Trump called for Zelensky to be replaced by new leadership. Ukraine’s Starshield service slowed, making it harder to counter incoming drones and missiles. The administration reportedly threatened to cut intelligence and weapons sales if Kyiv didn’t stop striking Russian energy sites.

3. All that has happened over just the past week. In total, it marks a sharp shift away from supporting Ukraine and toward relaxing the pressure on Moscow. Why?

4. It’d be nice to believe that the administration has reached some new, heretofore unimagined theory of victory, in which Russian aggression won’t succeed but Ukrainian independence will.

5. Nyet such luck. The driver of this policy shift appears to be the President’s desire to lower diesel costs before the midterm elections. 

6. Diesel prices are high, mostly because of the Iran war, which admits of no near-term solution. So the administration wishes to boost Russian supplies, even at the price of hobbling Ukraine’s offensive against Russian refineries. The rest seems personal frustration that Zelensky, quite understandably, won’t comply. 

7. Domestic political considerations always influence U.S. foreign policy, but here we face the worst of all worlds. Diesel prices are unlikely to come down much and, even if they do, the President’s party looks likely to lose at least one house of Congress anyway.

8. The bigger casualty here is U.S. support for the victim and U.S. pressure on the aggressor. Perhaps forgotten after 4+ years of war is that it is about more than Ukrainian survival.

9. The cardinal rule of the postwar world is a prohibition against forcible conquest. Countries can’t simply decide they’d like to take another’s territory and wage war to get it. 

10. Allowing that, and without imposing severe costs for it, is a step toward a global law of the jungle. The U.S. has resisted that for 80 years, and for a simple reason: we’ve seen that world before, and it was not good.

11. Americans thus have stake in ensuring Ukrainian survival. At stake is far more than the price of diesel.

12. At this turning point, the saving grace is that U.S. policy is likely to turn again. In our era of inconstancy, Washington might tack back toward Kyiv - after the elections, or if diesel prices retreat, or in light of Russian depredations, or just because. Given the costs piling up now, that return cannot come soon enough.

[Clearer Than Truth @ClearerThnTruth]

What’s next for American leadership? **Richard Fontaine**, CEO of CNAS, discusses the challenges shaping U.S. foreign policy and global security.

🎧 Full episode on *Clearer Than Truth*.

#ClearerThanTruth #Geopolitics