When I first posted the 15% Band, I compared Republicans vs. Democrats, so it covered 30 Senate races.
Now that results are nearly final, I updated it to include every vote: Republicans, Democrats, independents, third parties, everyone, in all 35 Senate races. Then I ran a new regression analysis. Once again, the number came back .85.
34 of 35 Senate Republicans fell below President Trump's 2024 share. Red states and blue states lost the same proportion.
In some states the lost votes went to Democrats. In others, like Idaho, Nebraska and Montana, they went to independents. Different opponents, different places for the votes to go, and the Republican share still landed at about 85%.
This isn't just an average. An average can hide states scattered all over the place. A regression tests whether one rule fits every state.
Here, it does: Trump's 2024 share × .85 lands close to the Republican result state after state after state, and explains 87% of the differences between them (R² = .87).
Five nights ago, I was pretty sure. Tonight, I know.
This is real. It deserves an answer.
@RealJackHibbs People came out to vote but people can’t beat the algorithms in the rigged machines…wake up and do a little more research! You are not paying attention!
@EricLDaugh So, are we not talking about all the massive midterm fraud? The results that were clearly part of an algorithm? That got swept under the carpet real quick 🤷🏻♂️🤦🏻♂️ too many people have the memory of a goldfish…
We cracked their cheating algorithm.
85/15 algorithm….for every 1000 Trump votes (most likely during early voting when Dems front loaded everything) 150 switched to Dems.
It’s the same pattern in every state that went blue.
@mtgreenee You talk as if the results of the midterm elections were normal when much of it were statistically impossible. You are part of the problem. You are all corrupt.