James Macdonald

Author of When Globalization Fails: The Rise and Fall of Pax Americana, and of A Free Nation Deep in Debt: The Financial Roots of Democracy.

[James Macdonald @jmacd22]

If Ukraine holds off Russia, it would be as if Hitler invaded Czechoslovakia in 1938 and was defeated by the Czechs. Imagine the different turn of history if that had occurred.

[Peterson Institute @PIIE]

How much revenue would universal US tariff increases generate? After accounting for economic impacts & foreign retaliation:
10 percentage point (pp) tariff increase—$1.6 trillion
15 pp tariff increase—$1.5 trillion
20 pp tariff increase—$791 billion
More: https://t.co/FC5FlcuQey

[Conflict Capital @Conflictal]

🇪🇺Ammunition Breakthrough: The Math Behind Europe's Artillery Surge
In early 2024, the picture was bleak:
🇺🇸 U.S. supplies had ceased entirely, though they had delivered twice as much as the EU since the war began (2 million vs. ~1 million rounds);
🇪🇺 Europe struggled to scale up production;
🇺🇦 Ukraine lacked sufficient domestic manufacturing capacity;
🇷🇺 Russia was receiving massive ammunition shipments from North Korea (over 1 million rounds).

As of Q1 2025, things look very different:

➡️ The U.S. contribution now consists solely of pre-contracted aid from the previous administration — no new packages are on the table.

➡️ Europe has become the main supplier. Just yesterday, news broke that British defense firm BAE Systems is launching a new line in Glascoed, expected to boost output 16-fold from pre-COVID levels, with deliveries to Ukraine starting this fall (link).

➡️ Similar announcements have come from Germany’s Rheinmetall (major expansion underway) and Denmark’s Nammo, which is restarting a shuttered factory in northern Denmark to produce both small- and large-caliber rounds (link).

Currently, STV Group (Czechia), in partnership with Rheinmetall, can produce ~1 million shells annually. Nammo adds another 360,000. In short: Europe is in a far stronger position than a year ago, though supply still hasn’t caught up with battlefield demand.

📊Projected capacity by 2026:
🛑 BAE Systems (UK): 500,000 155mm shells/year
🛑 Rheinmetall (Germany): 750,000 (with expansion to 1.1 million by 2027)
🛑 Nexter-KNDS (France): 100,000+ shells + 96,000 casings via Forges de Tarbes
🛑 PGZ (Poland): targeting 150,000
🛑 STV (Czechia): stabilizing at 150,000

That’s a combined ~2 million shells per year — enough to support 5,000–5,500 daily rounds if all were shipped to Ukraine, especially when factoring in Ukraine’s own 152mm output.

🇷🇺 For comparison: Russian firepower has declined. Moscow’s current rate is ~12,000 rounds/day — propped up heavily by North Korea, which now accounts for ~45% of Russian artillery supplies. The “Russian machine” is incapable of sustaining 2 million rounds annually on its own.

Back in Europe, this production surge is being powered by the EU’s ASAP (Act in Support of Ammunition Production) program — a blend of long-term offtake contracts and co-financed purchases of critical equipment (hydraulic presses, ovens, etc.).

Yet key bottlenecks remain: explosive materials like TNT, RDX, IMX-104, and nitrocellulose for propellants.

That’s changing:
🇩🇪 Rheinmetall Nitrochemie has opened a third nitration line in Aschau;
🇬🇧 BAE is rolling out containerized RDX micro-factories across the UK and at the Holston AAP in the U.S.;
🇫🇷 Eurenco-PB Clermont is doubling output of energetic materials.

Together, these efforts could raise Europe’s artillery ceiling to 2.4 million shells/year by 2026 — but full impact will be felt only next year. Until then, every batch of explosives is still being carefully allocated across plants.

🇺🇦 Meanwhile, Ukraine is ramping up too. Since August 2024, a joint Rheinmetall-Ukroboronprom 155mm line has been operational, aiming to produce 80,000–100,000 shells this year. State-owned Artem and several private firms are scaling up output of Soviet-era calibers (152mm and 122mm).

In just three years, Europe has gone from “almost handmade” production in 2022 to output levels rivaling China’s. If projections hold, Europe’s annual 155mm shell production will jump from 250–300k to 2 million by 2026.

[Yaroslav Trofimov @yarotrof]

How Ukrainians see US-Russian relations now.

[Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss]

In five years we’re going to learn he was secretly buying European defense stocks this entire time.

[Guy Verhofstadt @guyverhofstadt]

The problem with Trump is not only that he sides with the Russian position in its war with Ukraine, but that he embraces Putin/Medvedev worldview…a competition between three Empires:China, Russia and the US…Europe not around the table but on the menu ….time to become an empire ourself, a European Federation !

[Nick Tyrone @NicholasTyrone]

Macron’s approval ratings going up now. Trump may end up being the saviour of centrist politics in Europe, with right-wing populism becoming associated with Trump’s weak, erratic “leadership”. Silver linings and all that.

[Simon Schama @simon_schama]

of course he's still talking his stuck record WW3 drivel and lying about 350b $ because all he has is drivel and lies and then he goes golfing while subjecting Ukraine to murder from the skies. His version of " settle" is capitulation to an aggressor. Morally as well as serially bankrupt

[Akash Maniam @ManiamAkash]

"I won't provide air defense because I want to stop death"

Remember these words. A US president chose to enable russia's airstrikes to compel their victim into submission.

[Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼 @Noahpinion]

Of course. Russia hates Japan, and Trump's one foreign policy rule is to do whatever Russia wants.

Japan needs nuclear weapons immediately.

[John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch]

NEW: The actions of Trump and Vance in recent weeks highlight something under-appreciated.

The American right is now ideologically closer to countries like Russia, Turkey and in some senses China, than to the rest of the west (even the conservative west).

[JL 🍉🍒🏖🇺🇦 @Pharmspice]

@KareemRifai The US made a lot of such deals…we should keep them.

[Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼 @Noahpinion]

Either these people are complete fools, or someone is paying them to destroy the American economy

[Julia Davis @JuliaDavisNews]

“White House says Ukraine weapons and intel pause will lift when Russia talks set”

All Russia has to do now is indefinitely postpone setting this date.

https://t.co/srByf4yifV

[ian bremmer @ianbremmer]

americans who currently consider canada to be an ally/friendly country: 82%

canadians who currently consider america to be an ally/friendly country: 33%

-yougov

[Kevin Schofield @KevinASchofield]

NEW: YouGov poll reveals Keir Starmer's approval ratings have risen to their highest level in 6 months following his response to the Ukraine crisis.

By contrast, the number of Brits with an unfavourable view of Nigel Farage has risen to 65% over the same period.

[Mario @PawlowskiMario]

So here is something to consider about Europe. We just need to unite 💪

[Jeffrey J. Hall 🇯🇵🇺🇸 @mrjeffu]

Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba: "Russia's aggression against Ukraine is an outrageous act that shakes the very foundation of the international order. Such unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force must not be tolerated anywhere in the world."

[Carl Bildt @carlbildt]

There are facts that Trump 🇺🇸 just refuses to see. His world is often more a world of fiction.

[Niall Ferguson @nfergus]

The events of the past week have bitterly disappointed those who thought they had conveyed to the new administration the seriousness of the threat posed to the West by the Axis of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. https://t.co/XIoascF7L2

[YouGov @YouGov]

Britons tend to say it is more important to support Ukraine than to maintain good relations with the US

More important to support Ukraine: 48%
More important to maintain good relations with the US: 20%
Neither: 14%