Josh Blechman

Managing Director, ACSI Funds - Capital Markets - Unapologetic UofM Sports Fan - NYU Stern MBA - Located in NYC - Go Blue!

[Josh Blechman @jmblech]

Watch to see how the S&P 500 moved through every year since 2000 on Performance, Volatility and P/E

X-Axis is YTD Annualized Vol.
Y-Axis is YTD SPX Return
Size of Bubble = T12M P/E

Bet you can’t just watch this once.

#Fintwit - Notice anything interesting? Point it out!

[Josh Blechman @jmblech]

@TasgallTrader @MapotherThimas @Seawolfcap Vey back of envelope. It was a $250m Convertible @ $10 (right where mkt is now). Took a rough guess at what that delta would be. Gave a very wide range assuming not everyone is going to be hedged. Not representing it as anything more in depth than that.

[Josh Blechman @jmblech]

@MapotherThimas @Seawolfcap Back of the envelope is that 10 to 15 million shares (20 – 30 % of SI), related to hedging the August '23 $250m convertible notes. Significant, but not the majority

[Josh Blechman @jmblech]

@private_dataguy To be clear, it would not invalidate the point you are making, just wondering how that is accounted for and haven't seen anything from management breaking out how that would affect unit economics.

[Josh Blechman @jmblech]

@private_dataguy How do you think about the (presumably) large additional CapEx (no capacity to actually compound 400m+ lbs) & the large/continuous working capital (purchase 250+m lbs vPP). At scale, this can solve itself (w/offsetting impact to FCF), but would it need dilution/debt to pursue?

[Josh Blechman @jmblech]

@balajis @CesareHail Confounding factor - Ballmer became CEO in 2000. The 2001 anti-trust settlement/ongoing scrutiny likely limited "Exploration" in favor of execution on *allowed* markets/products. All penalties expired by 2012 giving Satya more freedom to pivot. (does not undo your larger point)

[Josh Blechman @jmblech]

@GoBlueJC @MichiganNation2 @StephenToski I did not screen shot it, but I did google search the images

[Josh Blechman @jmblech]

@MichiganNation2 @GoBlueJC @StephenToski It's not shown in the archived screenshot, but interesting to note that as of yesterday morning, the website had fake pictures for both Corrigan & Haxhija (a stock photo and a foreign professor) before they were removed

[Josh Blechman @jmblech]

@quantian1 There is a min size to remain in the S&P500. A constituent will never be as relatively "small" vs the field and AAPL is "relatively large". Top weight right now is .86%. Anytime RSP ($40BAUM) outperforms SPY, YPS will outperform both. easy way to acess to size/value in large cap

[Dan Weiskopf @ETFProfessor]

Structure Matters (SM): Why is it that Customer Satisifation is so low by companies in the $SPY. Note using our Tools - below that $ACSI has only 23% overlap to $SPY and high #activeshare with few overlap with other ETFs. Don't think alone! Join teh @ETFThinkTank

[Josh Blechman @jmblech]

@goodalexander Other than management patting themselves on the back during this call, genuinely curious what part seemingly screams "Undervalued" at 24x sales, when the market is pretty ruthlessly compressing this class of company

[Josh Blechman @jmblech]

@goodalexander Seems that using BILL as *THE* example is a strange choice. The company has a (post-drawdown) $11.5B Mkt Cap while posting ~$500M in REV and ~$300M in operating LOSS over the last 12 months. $1.6B in Cash on books, but current market not conducive to raising $.

[Josh Blechman @jmblech]

@kittysquiddy On vacation this week and met someone running a (Fortress backed) home lending business in S.Florida. Said business has ground to a halt in past 1+ month.
How good were the last two years? Good enough that he was in East Hampton looking to buy a family compound.

[Josh Blechman @jmblech]

@INArteCarloDoss Requesting open DM 🙏🏻

[Josh Blechman @jmblech]

@INArteCarloDoss @kittysquiddy 💯💯👋

[Josh Blechman @jmblech]

@choffstein Make sure you shout it out if you see an answer you like! Asking for a friend...

[Josh Blechman @jmblech]

@CliffordAsness Somebody is carrying a pretty big stick to bully JPM into setting the terms of their own Margin Call - and maintaining access markets and credit.
Also LME requiring a justification(!!!) for large players looking to long Nickel.

LME now only for producers and physical users??

[Josh Blechman @jmblech]

@CliffordAsness Is there ANY precedent for protecting a single market participant like this? Making their position un-callable? Refusing to close out a short position until market comes down? Is this a CCP too big to fail institution and JPM has to choose to backstop or functionally exit China?

[Josh Blechman @jmblech]

@philbak1 Retail traders are the pawns

[Josh Blechman @jmblech]

@philbak1 @MidwestHedgie There is no more accountability in politics, there are only agendas and election narrative. As infuriating as it is exhausting…

[Josh Blechman @jmblech]

@DaveNadig @philbak1 @cullenroche That being said, AAPL did outperform both by 80,000%, so maybe I do want them making my capital allocation decision!