🇺🇳 Global Grain Balance Tightens As Price Pressure Builds 📈
🌾 The IGC outlook keeps the global grain market on a tighter footing. Production has been revised higher by 4m t m/m, but remains below last season, while weaker crops across Oceania, Europe and the Americas contrast with better harvest prospects in North Africa and Near East Asia – potentially limiting import demand from those regions.
🚢 Trade conditions remain challenging. Black Sea disruptions have left wheat flows unusually slow, while total grain trade is expected to fall by 16m t y/y. At the same time, global grain use is projected at 2,444m t, with stronger food and industrial demand offsetting weaker feed use.
📉 Inventories remain the key pressure point. Global grain stocks are expected to finish the season 24m t below opening levels, with wheat and maize accounting for much of the tightening. Soybeans show a similar contrast: stronger production and trade are being absorbed by solid demand, while reserves among major exporters could fall by almost one-fifth y/y.
📊 Prices are already reflecting the changing balance. The IGC GOI climbed 6% to a three-year high and stands 20% above last year, with wheat up 6%, maize 5% and soybeans 7% over the latest reporting period.
❓Which factor is likely to matter more for global trade flows: tighter inventories or weaker import demand in key regions?
#GrainMarkets #BlackSea
@GiuseppeSa85932 Situazione pazzesca, un’agricoltura anziana in cui pur di coltivare si è disposti a sacrificare finanche la pensione! Basta coltivare, è questione di dignità
Basta coltivare,
@spiga_dorata Fair. But if we managed 50% 1-2CWAD last year(which we did) we will have no problem achieving that this year with what’s in the bin. And that goes straight to Africa not Italy. There will be plenty of high protein 3cwad for Italy.
The granular urea paper market strengthened further, with Brazil and the US Gulf extending gains while Egypt moved sharply higher and the Middle East held firm.
🌀 Read the full report on our WhatsApp channel.👇
https://t.co/44AB5mLn2Q
#urea#fertilizer#fertilizantes#gübre
The Bloomberg Commodity Index has SURGED to its highest level in OVER A DECADE. It's risen by a STUNNING 32% YTD.
MORE EVIDENCE THAT A COMMODITY PRICE SUPER CYCLE IS IN GEAR.
@JohnDePape1@RyanBonnett1 Yep. The #durum world is upside down...and it doesn't stop here. Why should farmers keep growing it when even feed wheat is at a premium? Something epic will happen next seeding campain if the wind doesn't change...
“Risultati che si scontrano con una pesante realtà di mercato, con costi di produzione lievitati di 150-200 €/ha. Per il grano duro oscillano tra i 2.200 € e i 2.700 €/ha e agli attuali prezzi servirebbe una resa aggiuntiva di circa 25 q/ha, quasi il 40%, per coprire le spese”
Secondo l'analisi del Coordinamento cerealicolo di Legacoop Agroalimentare sulla campagna 2026, calano del 15% le superfici di #grano duro per il maltempo mentre il tenero cresce del 12,5%, con una produzione totale in aumento del 27,29%.
#ANSATerraGusto
https://t.co/452eoa7Hn5
Secondo l'analisi del Coordinamento cerealicolo di Legacoop Agroalimentare sulla campagna 2026, calano del 15% le superfici di #grano duro per il maltempo mentre il tenero cresce del 12,5%, con una produzione totale in aumento del 27,29%.
#ANSATerraGusto
https://t.co/452eoa7Hn5
🚨 AUSTRALIA’S WHEAT MARKET IS FLASHING WARNING SIGNS
El Niño-driven drought is tightening Australia’s wheat outlook, with local wheat prices jumping 9.4% in August to $291/t.
Australia is a major wheat supplier to Asia. Lower export availability means Asian buyers may increasingly turn to Black Sea origins.
And the global wheat balance is already under pressure from weaker EU production.
Argentina’s record crop may help, but domestic demand + logistics could limit its ability to fill the gap.
🌾 Australia ↓
🌾 EU ↓
🌾 Argentina ↑ but constrained
🌾 Black Sea demand ↑
📈 Wheat price pressure building
If El Niño keeps hurting Australian production, the global wheat market could get much tighter into 2026/27.
Arrivasse pure a 35 che garanzia c’è? 🎢
Serve si stabilizzi e se il gasolio è come ora servono 45…fissi!
Di questo passo si arriva a Natale, un pochino tardi per seminare
Arrivasse pure a 35 che garanzia c’è? 🎢
Serve si stabilizzi e se il gasolio è come ora servono 45…fissi!
Di questo passo si arriva a Natale, un pochino tardi per seminare
Oggi si rischia meno coltivando altro, ci sono meno spese, ma la cosa tremenda è che molti hanno deciso di non coltivare proprio nulla sulle ristoppie e quelle sono più del 50% della superficie prima seminata a #granoduro