John Arnold Private

Market intelligence for discerning minds. Deep stock research, price action, and timely insights-shared selectively with a trusted few! MAIN PAGE: @johnarnold

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

after every sports team transaction I think to myself 'how can the buyer possibly make money on that' and then the next franchise trades 10% higher.

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

Hannah-Jones includes some version of the word "unequal" 15 times, "segregation" 25 times, and "resources" 4 times, but not one instance of "accountability," "union," or "standards."

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

Vanderbilt came in favored by 3.5 points.

With 7 seconds left, NC State is up 3 with the ball. Teams leading, with ball, and <10 seconds were 1046-1 in past 20 seasons. NC State bettors think they win. But no...

NC State unfathomably fumbles in end zone, Vandy recovers for TD with no time left. Vandy wins by 3. NC State bettors are relieved; team loses but still covers the line. But no...

Play is reviewed. Call upheld but 1 second put back on clock. Vandy has time to kick extra point. It's good. Vandy wins by 4 and covers.

Lesson here: don't bet on sports.

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

West Coast: we're approaching an economic transformation unlike anything in modern history.

East Coast: we're looking at three more years of 2.1% GDP growth.

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

I wrote an op-ed for today's WSJ:
The most popular policy response to future AI disruption is job training. Call it the Dolly Parton of social policy. Everyone likes it.
But there's one problem: There are scores of job-training programs today but few work.
https://t.co/nhDyHk0ovC

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

3 updates on our energy work at @Arnold_Ventures.
We recently released the US Energy Data Platform that has been receiving great reviews. It takes data that is often fragmented, technically dense and difficult to interpret and makes it more accessible.
https://t.co/KN8k02Q85H
1/3

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

The Lighthouse Energy Institute @LHEnergyInst, a new nonpartisan think tank that focuses on improving state and federal electricity policy, officially launched today. Policymakers need independent sources they can trust to help improve grid reliability and affordability.
2/3

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

Nobody likes to hear their schools aren’t performing well. The two options are to improve schools or to lower/eliminate the metrics. The latter is easier.

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

Problem: high schools graduate students who lack basic reading and math skills

Solution: require students to demonstrate basic proficiency before graduating or advancing

Problem: parents, schools and politicians don't like resulting increase in students held back or not graduating

Solution: state ends proficiency testing for graduation and promotion

Problem: high schools graduate students who lack basic reading and math skills

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

One of the surprising things rewatching 9/11 news coverage as it happened was how slowly people realized it wasn't an accident. Stock futures were still positive 16 minutes after the first plane hit WTC. It wasn't until minute 17 when the 2nd plane hit that futures went negative.

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

Every AI policy paper starts out perfectly rational until the What About China section at the very end where the whole proposal falls apart.

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

Every administration since Reagan has talked about addressing the deficit through future growth. If only it were so easy.

Reagan: "Strong and steady economic growth is the best way to reduce deficits."
Bush 41: "we were going to grow our way out of the deficit problem." -- CEA Chair Boskin
Clinton: "economic growth could take the deficit down even more quickly"
Bush 43: "let’s just be patient about solving this federal deficit… let’s grow our way out of it."
Obama: "We can’t just cut our way out of the problem; we’ve also got to grow our way out of the problem"
Trump 1: higher GDP growth would be “helping to erase our fiscal deficit" -- Treasury Sec. Steve Mnuchin
Biden: "the best way to responsibly reduce the deficit is to grow the economy"
Trump 2: "the way you take care of debt is with growth… The growth will take care of that very easily."

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

"The Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates that average growth of 3.5% to 4% over a decade would stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio."
GDP is function of productivity + hours worked but working age pop growth is almost zero given bad demographics and drop in immigration.

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

If his name was Arch Smith no one would be talking about him as the potential #1 pick. Or #10 pick. Or...

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

The US just started a natural experiment to test the value of the marginal campaign dollar in high-profile congressional races that are already awash in money and attention. My hypothesis is that it is almost zero.

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

The horseshoe has bent so far that the biggest legislative policy difference in the TX Senate race between Paxton and Talarico is whether to fund more healthcare, childcare, education, and housing spending via tax credits or direct government subsidies.

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

The oil market is quietly inching up to levels we saw in the spring. But, unlike then, global oil stocks are bullish. Here's my 2 cents on the market this year, as told through time spreads.

The difference between the price for a commodity today versus in a few months is a better signal of near-term fundamentals than outright prices. The oil market has gone through 5 stages in 2026, represented in this graph of the premium of month 1 vs month 3.

Stage 1: Pre-war - Oversupplied market. Inventories are high and rising. No premium for physical barrels.

Stage 2: Immediately after attack on Iran - Market put some risk premium for the uncertainty but expected a quick resolution.

Stage 3: War drags on, increasing attacks on energy infrastructure - Market wildly swings between panic over Strait remaining closed and widening conflict vs predictions of near term peace deal.

Stage 4: Inventory withdrawals and workarounds to export crude weigh on market - The large premium for near term crude incentivizes commercial inventory withdrawals from stocks that entered the war at elevated levels. Combined with releases from global strategic reserves, physical markets are surprisingly weak. Premium for near term barrels largely disappears.

Stage 5: Reality sets in - After 4.5 months of major supply disruption, inventories surpluses are eliminated and continuing to draw. No visibility to opening Strait. Market slowly starts to build premium for physical barrels. Significant price premiums exist for diesel and gasoline. Recent skirmishes increase concern about how long market can remain subdued.

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

The market initially had enough inventory to substitute stored barrels for disrupted production. Seven months later, that buffer has disappeared.
Focus on solid red line on this graph from JPM. Things are close to getting dicey.

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

MMT as a brand peaked around 2021. MMT as a governing philosophy has never been stronger.

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

I think the parties should get into a bidding war about which will send the largest checks.