John B. Woods

engineer, nomad, investor, fx trader

[Tatara @0xTatara]

this paper is f*cking insane

a HKUST paper built a model that spots market crashes by tracking correlations break down across 24 assets

the result: 1.13 Sharpe, 15.6% CAGR and -7.5% max drawdown, versus 3.7% CAGR and -33.7% drawdown for buy & hold

the crazy part is it doesn't wait for volatility to spike

it catches diversification vanishing before the crash arrives

bookmark it before this thread gets buried

[Filip Janur 🇪🇺 🇵🇱 @FilipJanur]

Odważny i waleczny naród. Już nigdy nie wrócą pod okupację Rosji.

[Pope Leo XIV @Pontifex]

Dear friends, during some recent medical examinations, the doctors found a small, localized nodule in my lung. It was detected at a very early stage and is well-localized. The doctors believe that it is best to intervene, so, following their advice, I have decided to undergo surgery to remove it. The operation is already scheduled to take place in the coming days. I thank you for your spiritual closeness and entrust myself to your prayers.

[ⓧ Maestr0 @Converse_81]

@PhilKonieczny

[Andrew Panella @Longevity_EDU]

Inflammation.

The hidden cause of every chronic condition from heart disease to obesity.

10 dead-simple methods to cure your inflammation:

1. Grounding

[Linda Raschke @LindaRaschke]

Market delivers on a silver platter. This has been a staple for me the past 30 years. If no trade to pit session 15 minute EMA on a trend day , it WILL revert to the mean the next day.

[John B. Woods @johnbawoods]

@PauloMacro He is the Sam Bankman Fried of the AI cycle.

[Matthew LaBosco @matthew_labosco]

Everyone knows you should "just meditate" to lower cortisol.

But most people don't know these 8 unconventional yet powerful tips to lower cortisol: 🧵

1. Hum for 60 seconds

[Camus @newstart_2024]

To fall asleep you first have to forget where your body is.

Andrew Huberman explained that one of the key steps into sleep is losing track of body position. An old technique that circulated years ago involved slowly moving the eyes side to side, then in circles, then toward the nose while exhaling. He tried it and often woke up the next morning without remembering the transition.

A pair of researchers at MIT later built on the same idea with a sleep mask that gently stimulates the muscles behind the ears, creating the eye movements for you. Huberman said it can drop people into sleep in under six minutes. You feel a light twitch at first, adjust it, and then the eyes simply start moving on their own. He has no financial relationship with the company.

A simple physiological lever most of us never think about.

[Justin Banks @RealJGBanks]

THIS SIMPLE STRATEGY WILL MAKE YOU YOUR FIRST $100K

1. Mark the previous day’s High and Low.

2. Wait for a 1-hour candle to break above the High or below the Low.

3. Wait for the retest of that level and enter in the direction of the break.

Read this Before you trade next.

[Brett Erickson @BrettErickson28]

As reporting is circulating this morning about potential discussions for a new deal between the United States and Iran, I want to discuss one of the core problems to what I am seeing.

Trump isn’t being realistic… at all…

Based at least on the initial reporting, President Trump is trying to essentially strike a deal that reverts back to the terms of the original Memorandum of Understanding. Put nicely… that’s ridiculous.

Unfortunately for Trump, unfortunately for everyone, the Trump Administration took guidance from the Lobby and Hawks that called for Washington to revoke the oil sanction waivers (General License X) that were issued under the MOU. Even worse, during the 10-day wind down period, Treasury added an escrow account mechanism. This means that any oil sold during this window would be controlled by the United States. Of course, Iran would never willingly do that, so it was essentially torched without notice.

This is significant because the oil waivers were the only real concession that Iran received up front in the original MOU. Because the Trump Administration revoked them without notice, they cannot simply “reissue them” again in a future MOU. This is because countries that MIGHT have purchased Iranian oil under the original deal know that the US is willing to revoke them without notice. Therefore, there is no durability anymore, and they effectively lose all value as a future concession.

On top of this, the United States also never released any of Iran’s frozen assets during the 27 days the MOU was in effect, and this only further degraded any trust that the United States will hold up their end of the bargain in any deal.

To take it a step further, before the MOU was “officially” destroyed, the United States imposed new sanctions on Iran, which explicitly breaches Article 9 of the MOU.

President Trump putting forth an “offer” that essentially reverts back to the prior terms of the original MOU… that’s simply delusional. He knows it. Iran knows it.

It’s not a serious offer.

The problem with this though, is it fundamentally guarantees that if Iran holds the cards, which I think most everyone understands that they do, President Trump WILL be forced to agree to far worse terms under a future deal than he received in the original MOU.

As much as I hate to say this… the odds the Iranians accept these terms are zero. Nada. Zilch. It’s an entirely unrealistic set of terms from Trump, and this will only signal to Iran that the United States is not serious, and not willing to make a real deal to end this war.

[Grzegorz Kurek 🚴‍♂️✍️🏔️ @delanteradeoro]

Paliwo rakietowe na którym jeżdżę - nic lepszego i zdrowszego nie kupicie, zresztą kupne ma z reguły masę syfu w sobie.

Baza płynna (1 Litr):
530 ml wody wysokozmineralizowanej (np. Muszynianka) – główne źródło magnezu. >>

[Jason @3PeaksTrading]

VVIX Divergences - The Hidden Edge in Options Trading

🧵 When VVIX moves opposite to VIX, something BIG is about to happen

These divergences predict major volatility shifts 3-7 days early
Here's how to spot them and profit 👇

1/ What is a VVIX divergence?

When VIX and VVIX move in opposite directions

Bullish divergence: VIX rising, VVIX falling = Fear exhausting

Bearish divergence: VIX falling, VVIX rising = Complacency ending

Both signal regime changes

[M4ikoL. @MZora0419]

Estas dos personas tienen 62 años y la diferencia no es solo genética, sino también de hábitos.

Estos son los hábitos que te mantendrán joven.

1. Respira por la nariz.

[Andrew Panella @Longevity_EDU]

The 56-year old whose biological age is 36:

Julie Clark.

She's outpacing Bryan Johnson, the $2 million/year biohacker, on just $4/day.

Here's her record-breaking longevity routine that's almost too simple to believe (bookmark this): 🧵

[Bryan Johnson @bryan_johnson]

Being mean is bad for your health.

A single hostile interaction:
+ locks you in a cortisol penalty box for 60-90 min
+ suppresses recovery capacity
+ elevates your heart rate

Kindness conserves your energy resources.

[Matthew LaBosco @matthew_labosco]

Robert Sapolsky is the Stanford neuroscientist who proved stress ages you from the inside.

Cortisol shrinks your brain, killing memory neurons — and it may not reverse.

Here are 7 natural ways to slow the clock (without medication):

1. Cold water on your face.

[Steve Burns @SJosephBurns]

Building a Mathematical Trading System:

1/2 🧵

[John B. Woods @johnbawoods]

@rafal_zaorski Kupiłem jak bilet na loterie. Strace? Trudno. A moze zarobie? Kupowalem na tej samej zasadzie w 2023 NFT Trumpa. I NFT pewnego apartamentu na Zlotej 44. Ja obydwu zarobilem. Najwazniejsze są nie wejscia ale wyjscia, prawda? Zawsze "sell the news". Z traderskim pozdrowieniem.