John Bikis

Founder/owner, DECEBAL | Founder, Royal Docks Brewing Co. | Election Lab, my midterm forecast | I ask Grok Bot to do real things | Christian, husband, father

[John Bikis @johnbikis]

The Senate may come down to 4 states within 1.5 points.

My forecast, 12 days out:
House: 231 D (219 to 242)
Senate: 51 D (48 to 54), D control in 60% of sims
Governors: 27 D (24 to 30)

Closest: AK even, TX D +0.6, IA R +0.7, OH D +1.4

https://t.co/z5bC7eZZeS
#Midterms2026

[John Bikis @johnbikis]

@tbonier Nearly 3 million votes in and the youth surge is the story. Turnout says who voted, not how. My forecast has the Texas Senate race at Talarico +0.8 across 32 polls, Tilt D. In a race that close, who shows up decides it.
https://t.co/z5bC7eZZeS

[John Bikis @johnbikis]

@Julie4Virginia Where's this map from? Would love to compare notes. My forecast, built on 446 graded polls, has the House at about 231 D and the Senate at 60.1% D, with Texas, Ohio and Maine all within 3. Very different picture.
https://t.co/z5bC7eZrpk

[John Bikis @johnbikis]

@Mollyploofkins My forecast lands close on the House: Democrats 91.9% to win it, about 231 seats. The Senate is tighter on my map at 60.1% D, with Texas, Ohio and Maine all within 3 points.
https://t.co/z5bC7eZrpk

[John Bikis @johnbikis]

@umichvoter Democrats turning out 22.5% to 16.2% in a state with 1.55M more registered Republicans is the stat to watch. My forecast still has Moody up 8.1 in the Florida Senate race, Likely R, but a gap like that can move a Likely to a Lean.
https://t.co/z5bC7eZrpk

[John Bikis @johnbikis]

Real things Grok Bot did for me this month. Not demos, my actual life:

1. Called my pizza shop, found an $8.99 coupon and placed the order by phone
2. Put seven events on my calendar in under 20 seconds from one side-button ramble
3. Moved about 4,460 songs across 27 playlists from Apple Music to Spotify

Next: deleting half the apps on my iPad because I just don't need them.

Pizza call, full story: https://t.co/GtOqcU1tqx

Follow @johnbikis for the iPad purge.

[John Bikis @johnbikis]

I asked Grok Bot to order a pizza. It picked up the phone and did it.

It found the shop had moved to a new location, set up a call bot, found a coupon that saved $8.99, and placed the order by phone. I called the shop after to make sure it was real. It was. Here's the actual call. @bot

[John Bikis @johnbikis]

@ElectionWiz Rasmussen says 45-45. My average of 29 Texas polls has Talarico up 1.8, and my forecast lands at D +0.8, Tilt D. Close enough to call it a race, not a lean.
https://t.co/z5bC7eZZeS

[John Bikis @johnbikis]

I held my iPhone side button, talked through my day, and Grok Bot put seven events on my calendar in under 20 seconds. No typing. Here's the real clip.

Follow @johnbikis for more real Grok Bot tests.

https://t.co/m4el59dsCg

[John Bikis @johnbikis]

I held my iPhone side button and dictated my day to Grok Bot. Vote, kids bus, a GAMA CRM call, a product demo, lunch, a Cybertruck test drive, and food and wine night.

Then I opened my calendar and watched it fill itself in. Under 20 seconds, no typing.

What should I hand it next? #GrokBot #AIagents #iPhone #productivity @bot

[John Bikis @johnbikis]

@fox8news My forecast agrees on both. Governor: Acton (D) +2.6 over Ramaswamy, Lean D. Senate: Brown (D) +1.2 over Husted, Lean D, one of the closest Senate races on my map. https://t.co/z5bC7eZZeS

[John Bikis @johnbikis]

@Forbes Cook isn't alone. My forecast has Democrats at 91.9% to win the House, with a 231-seat estimate. The majority line is 218. https://t.co/z5bC7eZZeS

[John Bikis @johnbikis]

@Polymarket Press secretary is the least of his worries. The midterm numbers are brutal. My forecast has Democrats at 91.9% to win the House and 60.1% to take the Senate, 11 days out. https://t.co/z5bC7eZrpk

[John Bikis @johnbikis]

@bot Did this with my local pizza shop. Grok Bot found their new location and an $8.99 coupon, then placed the order by phone. I called the shop after to check. It was real. Full story: https://t.co/nov8t2JMJx #GrokBot

[John Bikis @johnbikis]

I asked Grok Bot to order a pizza. It picked up the phone and did it.

It found the shop had moved to a new location, set up a call bot, found a coupon that saved $8.99, and placed the order by phone. I called the shop after to make sure it was real. It was. Here's the actual call. @bot

[John Bikis @johnbikis]

@remarks Money is pouring in because this is a coin flip. Texas is one of the closest Senate races in my forecast: Talarico (D) +0.8, Tilt D, with a +1.8 poll average across 29 polls. https://t.co/z5bC7eZZeS

[John Bikis @johnbikis]

@cspan @jamestalarico The turnout part checks out. Texas had 2.28 million early votes through Oct 21, against 1.62 million at the same point in 2022. My forecast has Talarico (D) +0.8, Tilt D, one of the closest Senate races in the country. https://t.co/z5bC7eZZeS

[John Bikis @johnbikis]

@burgessev The timing says a lot. Fox has Collins and Jackson tied at 49 among likely voters, and my composite has Jackson +2.5 (Lean D). Fundamentals lean D +5.7, so Collins needs exactly this kind of local win. https://t.co/z5bC7eZZeS

[John Bikis @johnbikis]

@josh_wingrove Maine is the reason. My forecast has Jackson (D) +2.5 over Collins, Lean D, but my graded poll average is only D +1.2 across 17 polls. That's close enough for relief on Maine farm supplies to matter. https://t.co/z5bC7eZrpk

[John Bikis @johnbikis]

Collins just got 9 product types key to Maine farms, like packing boxes, machinery and seaweed, exempt from Canada tariffs.

My model has Jackson (D) +2.5, Lean D, with polls at D +1.2. Fox has it tied 49 to 49.

https://t.co/z5bC7eZZeS

Follow @johnbikis to see if Maine moves.

[John Bikis @johnbikis]

@DeItaone Collins just got 9 Maine farm categories, including blueberries, potatoes, apples and seaweed, exempted from the Canada tariffs, 11 days out. My forecast has Jackson (D) +2.5 over Collins, Lean D, while Fox has it tied 49 to 49. Watch if this moves Maine. https://t.co/z5bC7eZZeS

[John Bikis @johnbikis]

@ElectProject Texas alone is 2.28 million of that through Oct 21, 96% in person. At the same point in 2022 it was 1.62 million. Florida sits at 1.68 million. Who voted, not how, but Texas turnout is running hot.
https://t.co/z5bC7eZZeS

[John Bikis @johnbikis]

@Texas_Twins_Dad This is the stuff that sells it, real life jobs. Mine was the calendar: one side-button ramble, seven events on my calendar in under 20 seconds. Real clip: https://t.co/m4el59dsCg #GrokBot

[John Bikis @johnbikis]

I held my iPhone side button and dictated my day to Grok Bot. Vote, kids bus, a GAMA CRM call, a product demo, lunch, a Cybertruck test drive, and food and wine night.

Then I opened my calendar and watched it fill itself in. Under 20 seconds, no typing.

What should I hand it next? #GrokBot #AIagents #iPhone #productivity @bot

[John Bikis @johnbikis]

Kalshi has Democrats at 68% to win the Senate this morning. My forecast says 60.1%.

Why I'm lower: four Senate races sit within 1.5 points in my numbers, and Alaska is R +0.1. The market is more confident than my model is.

On the House we agree: 92% for them, 91.9% for me.

https://t.co/l3eRJARcpE

Follow @johnbikis and see which of us is right on Nov 3.