WE ARE HIRING!
An RV park manager to oversee 2 parks in S. OK. Between DFW & Oklahoma City.
The parks have 151 pad sites combined & are 35 mins apart.
We offer a competitive salary, healthcare benefits & the option to live for free on site. Link to apply is below.
NYC real estate developer Larry Silverstein is a multi-billionaire and his story is my favorite real estate story of all time
In this clip, he shares how he went from broke leasing broker, unable to scrape together $15k for a deposit, to eventually buying his first building w/ a group of investors
This first acquisition would lead to a series of deals that would help propel him into one of the most well known RE operators/developers in New York
I recommend this clip for anyone interested in real estate or investing in general
For more business and founder stories just like this, make sure to follow @TripleNetInvest
As a general partner in 4 Rv parks, I've learned that you should make 100% SURE you never miss a utilities payment. The biggest expenses on RV parks is utilities, and that's pretty much what they are: a provider of utility hookups.
There is a reasonable chance that multi-family real estate suffers a blood bath next year.
It took me a long time to understand why, but at a lunch with a guy that has purchased over $1B in real estate, I finally got it.
Here's why: 👇
If you buy multifamily real estate with a floating rate loan, the bank often requires you to get a rate cap.
Rate caps are basically a form of insurance against higher interest rates.
Without a rate cap, if interest rates rise, your mortgage payment goes up because you have a floating rate loan. That's pretty easy to understand.
If you purchase a rate cap, it means that someone else will pay the difference between your mortgage payment today when interest rates are low, and your mortgage payment tomorrow when mortgage payments are higher.
This is really smart on the part of a bank.
Lets say you collect rent of $1M per year on an apartment building you own, and your mortgage is $800K per year in 2021. If interest rates go up, your debt service will quickly rise to something like $1.1M, and you won't collect enough rent to pay this.
So the rate cap ensures that you can pay your mortgage.
Here's the rub:
If you get a fixed rate loan, the fixed rate lasts the length of the entire loan - something like 15 or 30 years.
Rate caps have a much shorter duration - typically only 3 years.
A three-year cap at 3% for a $100 million loan cost $98,000 in April 2019. Today, the same cap costs $3.48 million. That's a 35X increase in price!
That means if you bought a property in 2020 with a floating rate loan, your rate cap will expire this year and you've got to come up with $3.5M. You can do this by no longer paying your investors (stopping distributions) or asking your investors for more money (a capital call, which means you messed up on understanding the market big time). You can also sell your property before you have to purchase a rate cap, or try to refinance into a fixed rate loan which will be much higher interest rate now. None of these are good options.
Here's the second rub:
In 2021 and 2022, the share of floating-rate loans in the CMBS market was ~60%. Back in 2005 and 2006, when interest rates were also rising, the share was below 15%. That means MOST people have floating rate debt!
Conclusion:
- Property purchased in 2020 may be okay right now, because rents have gone up so much in the past 3 years that you may be able to service a higher level of debt. Still, some people will suffer in this cohort.
- Property purchased in 2021 and 2022 is in a lot of danger. If higher interest rates last another year and if it doesn't look like the Fed will cut in 2024, these people will have to pay a fortune for rate caps. And they don't have the money to do this. Rents haven't gone up enough to justify this. You can expect a blood bath in multifamily real estate if this happens.
Options for this cohort:
1. Capital Calls: Investors don't want capital calls in real estate - real estate isn't like VC where companies require rounds of financing. It should be like a bond - I pay in once and I get a return every quarter - and a capital call from a real estate GP means they royally messed up up.
2. Give the keys to the bank. They can't afford to make debt payments anymore, so they just lose all the money. Worst Option.
3. Try to sell. Keep in mind that this means two massive cohorts of real estate will all sell at the same time, so prices will come down. It also is happening at a time when interest rates are up, so I can get 5% from the US Government. Not the ideal outcome, but maybe the best of the 3.
I had the honor of speaking to a group of students at Harvard Law School last week.
One of them asked me what makes a good lawyer.
Here are my thoughts: