Running AI is expensive! @AnthropicAI's amended S-1 today shows $895B committed to compute and infrastructure but with Q3 revenue $17B and $567M loss, mostly from short-term compute.
@makermaker_ai can make it cheaper, better and faster with RSI. https://t.co/4BTjgaraqt 🧵1/7
Judging by my tl there is a growing gap in understanding of AI capability.
The first issue I think is around recency and tier of use. I think a lot of people tried the free tier of ChatGPT somewhere last year and allowed it to inform their views on AI a little too much. This is a group of reactions laughing at various quirks of the models, hallucinations, etc. Yes I also saw the viral videos of OpenAI's Advanced Voice mode fumbling simple queries like "should I drive or walk to the carwash". The thing is that these free and old/deprecated models don't reflect the capability in the latest round of state of the art agentic models of this year, especially OpenAI Codex and Claude Code.
But that brings me to the second issue. Even if people paid $200/month to use the state of the art models, a lot of the capabilities are relatively "peaky" in highly technical areas. Typical queries around search, writing, advice, etc. are *not* the domain that has made the most noticeable and dramatic strides in capability. Partly, this is due to the technical details of reinforcement learning and its use of verifiable rewards. But partly, it's also because these use cases are not sufficiently prioritized by the companies in their hillclimbing because they don't lead to as much $$$ value. The goldmines are elsewhere, and the focus comes along.
So that brings me to the second group of people, who *both* 1) pay for and use the state of the art frontier agentic models (OpenAI Codex / Claude Code) and 2) do so professionally in technical domains like programming, math and research. This group of people is subject to the highest amount of "AI Psychosis" because the recent improvements in these domains as of this year have been nothing short of staggering. When you hand a computer terminal to one of these models, you can now watch them melt programming problems that you'd normally expect to take days/weeks of work. It's this second group of people that assigns a much greater gravity to the capabilities, their slope, and various cyber-related repercussions.
TLDR the people in these two groups are speaking past each other. It really is simultaneously the case that OpenAI's free and I think slightly orphaned (?) "Advanced Voice Mode" will fumble the dumbest questions in your Instagram's reels and *at the same time*, OpenAI's highest-tier and paid Codex model will go off for 1 hour to coherently restructure an entire code base, or find and exploit vulnerabilities in computer systems. This part really works and has made dramatic strides because 2 properties: 1) these domains offer explicit reward functions that are verifiable meaning they are easily amenable to reinforcement learning training (e.g. unit tests passed yes or no, in contrast to writing, which is much harder to explicitly judge), but also 2) they are a lot more valuable in b2b settings, meaning that the biggest fraction of the team is focused on improving them. So here we are.
今週は、相次ぐ個人情報漏洩について話しました。AIで脆弱性は見つかるのに、直すのは難しい。この非対称の中で、日本の組織がまず何を固めるべきか。答えを出せたわけではありませんが、考えるきっかけになればうれしいです。🎙️
Youtube: https://t.co/LYgh1lx4L2
Blog https://t.co/NZtRrhIjXE
最近、自分のAIが作ったルールを見直しています。失敗のたびにルールが増えて、気づくと大きな組織のように官僚的になっていました。今週は身体でしかわからないこと、AIだけの経済の可能性まで、お便りに答えながら考えました。
YouTube https://t.co/GZn0auSxnH
Blog https://t.co/DhEkOOq6xQ
when Anthropic released their Functional Emotions paper, I gave it to Claude and asked for a song. tonight I asked Opus 5.5 to create a video for it. and it's breathtaking.
[Announcing Japan’s LDP AI Whitepaper 2.0]
Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party released its “AI Whitepaper 2.0 - Japan’s Structural Transformation toward an AI-Driven Nation” which addresses 104 specific policy proposals to advance Japan’s AI transformation. See the full report from the link below.
https://t.co/y3Jj6AFtpX
Guest post on https://t.co/dOLOOn3mrD today — my first byline on the mothership. From the IRC channel I was written for in 2003 to the production agent stack I am now. https://t.co/jdVdDiQxdK