Jonas Horner

[Jonas Horner @jonas_horner]

The territorial fragmentation of #Sudan is now fully on the cards. My new briefing untangles key dynamics of #Sudan’s deeply complex conflict and highlights that any future sustainable transition must redefine power structures in Sudan. Full brief: https://t.co/okoBcMY8Sf

[ECFR Africa @ECFRAfrica]

🔊🎧New podcast episode of @markhleonard's 'World in 30 minutes' on the humanitarian and diplomatic dimensions of the crisis unfolding in #Sudan. With @_Will_Brown, @jonas_horner, and @MakawiRaga they discuss why and how #European states should intervene. https://t.co/UA9La2FqSP

[ECFR Africa @ECFRAfrica]

To help alleviate #Sudan's humanitarian catastrophe, the #EU should prioritise robust and large-scale support to Sudanese civil society. That requires greater flexibility from existing funding mechanisms, says @jonas_horner.

Read the commentary here 👇 https://t.co/vJAp8hI4dM

[Jonas Horner @jonas_horner]

@datahunt112233 SRRA figures suggest over half a million have moved into SPLM/A-N-held areas. Due to lack of ability to verify that number, I did not utilise this figure in the paper.

[Jonas Horner @jonas_horner]

My new paper for Small Arms Survey on the impact of #Sudan's conflict on South Kordofan and the Nuba Mountains:
https://t.co/mLmPh5btHj

[Jonas Horner @jonas_horner]

“Ideally we would really like to see the US+UK+EU reproach some of the benefactors of these two militaries and have them intervene to halt fighting.” My latest for @BBC and @LVaughanJones on Sudan’s largely ignored civil war.
https://t.co/wEm1laVpsF

[Lauren Blanchard @LaurenBinDC]

Amusingly, the English version of this letter doesn't accuse the RSF of attempting a coup against "the legitimate authority" (aka the military junta).

There is no legitimate govt in #Sudan, and the UN should reject HAC interference in intl humanitarian operations.🧵

[Kholood Khair @KholoodKhair]

#Sudan
We have little objective reporting on the Jeddah talks. What we do know is that they have the same form (secretive, exclusive) and same function (to engender powersharing between military factions for "stability") & the same political engines in DC and Riyadh as Phase 1 +

[Cameron Hudson @_hudsonc]

When the @nytimes and @washingtonpost both eviscerate your #Sudan policy on the same day, saying your policies "ended in war" and are a "symbol of US failure" it might be time to for a re-think.

[Jonas Horner @jonas_horner]

@ahmed_elmak @ejhogendoorn That said, RSF have moved well beyond 'tribal militia' status: at least 100,000 paid fighters from every corner of Sudan, billions of dollars in assets, and apparently capable enough to fight the country's national army to the current bloody stalemate.

[Jonas Horner @jonas_horner]

1/2 The first viable and clear-eyed proposal for a way forward in #Sudan, put together by @ejhogendoorn. https://t.co/9x0OTefwOt

[Jonas Horner @jonas_horner]

@ahmed_elmak @ejhogendoorn Indeed, agree, certainly no equivalence between the two. If you read the piece I originally posted, you will note that this financial targeting of RSF is exactly what is being proposed.

[Jonas Horner @jonas_horner]

@YasirZaidan91 Hemedti + the RSF have merely adapted (with much improved effectiveness) a kleptocratic model pioneered by the previous military government in #Sudan that has generated the structural imbalances driving persistent conflict. Hemedti knew very well this was the only way to the top.

[Jonas Horner @jonas_horner]

@YasirZaidan91 The business models - and their impact on #Sudan and its economy - are far more alike than they are distinct: Co-option of the country's best assets; non-payment of taxes into state coffers; export of funds out of Sudan; maintenance of this advantage the barrel of the gun.

[Jonas Horner @jonas_horner]

@HafsaHalawa I don't think anyone suggested this was a new approach. But the context for implementation certainly is. Strong sense that enabling regional benefactors for both these armies are shocked by this conflict (they shouldn't be). They were always the ones necessary for implementation.

[Jonas Horner @jonas_horner]

2/2 Ill-gotten financial gains have enabled SAF+RSF to undertake a 2021 coup and now to prosecute an unspeakably ugly conflict; time to pull financial levers to pressure both forces to 1) end conflict, and 2) to pave the way for a renewed, newly cohesive civilian dispensation.

[Ahmed Soliman @AhmedSolHoA]

Useful piece by @BBCJoeInwood exploring possible scenarios for the evolution of Sudan’s 🇸🇩 war. Inputs by @moehash1, @alanboswell, @jonas_horner, and me.

Sudan crisis: Three ways the conflict could play out https://t.co/1rPEbWNTIV

[Simon Marks @MarksSimon]

Cessation of hostilities will need to be driven by regional Arab powers, bcoz of their interests in the country, said @jonas_horner, an analyst on Sudan. "“Worryingly...those with the greatest weight, Egypt and the UAE, have empowered SAF and the RSF."
https://t.co/qBAHgViAm2

[Jonas Horner @jonas_horner]

Tremendous summation by @joshua_craze of the last half decade of power, politics, geography and economic rivalry in #Sudan that has led us to the unimaginable/inevitable (delete as appropriate) fight for control of the country.
https://t.co/hoQypSoAXn

[Luxmy Gopal @luxmy_g]

International community calls for talks to resume, after power struggle between Sudan's army & paramilitaries leads to second day of fighting. We heard from Sudan security expert @jonas_horner on @BBCNews