Jonathan

Interested in financials markets, investing and economics.

[Jonathan @JonathanStolpe]

@brianbeers @brianbeers Love this! I have just recently bought a heavy machinery repair shop and would love to hear more of your story and the playbook you have used! I wasn’t able to message you!

[MastersInvest.com @mastersinvest]

"HEICO was built for long-term and sustainable cash generation, which permits our earnings and cash flow to compound decade-after-decade, not just year-after-year. We are not into programs of the year, buzzwords, or comparing ourselves to others, hoping to get a higher multiple on our shares. We're designed for long-term challenging, but sustainable earnings increases."

- Eric Mendelson, Heico Q1 2026 Earnings Call

[Quartr @Quartr_App]

Are you familiar with $PUUILO? This Finnish discount retailer has quietly become one of Europe’s most operationally efficient players.

Puuilo by the numbers
❉ 52 stores (aiming for 70+ in 2028)
❉ 30,000+ SKUs per store
❉ €400M revenue (LTM)
❉ 17.5% EBITA margin (LTM)
❉ €1.1B market cap

Founded in 1982 as a toy workshop, Puuilo today serves price-conscious DIY customers with a broad selection of construction supplies, tools, HVAC and electrical materials, pet products, and everyday household items.

Operational excellence
Puuilo's highly efficient operating model relies on five key pillars: an extensive selection of fast-moving, small-ticket items; a growing percentage of private label products (~22% of sales in 2024, aiming for 30%+); centralized volume purchasing; a standardized store concept; and a lean cost structure driven by a frugal culture.

Store economics
A new Puuilo store is profitable within its first operational month on an EBITDA basis, and fully paid back after 19 months. The low cost structure is enabled by the stores’ compact size, standardized design, and the fact that they are primarily built outside city centers – the “Potato Field Principle,” as IKEA founder Ingvar Kamprad used to call it.

To learn more about Puuilo's business, we highly recommend the company’s 2024 Capital Markets Day presentation.

[Mr Family Office @MrFamilyOffice]

"The ultimate luxury is doing something every day that you love doing with people that you love doing it with"

[Ian Cassel @iancassel]

Everyone wants to invest in wonderful businesses, but the big money is made by buying them before everyone thinks they are wonderful.

[Jonathan @JonathanStolpe]

Special mail arrived – now everything is ready for next weekend’s AGM! 👍🏻

[Jonathan @JonathanStolpe]

@StockBrain247 Mielenkiintoinen case. Itselleni suurin murheenkryyni on pääoman allokaatio. En ymmärrä, miksi kasvuun investoidaan samanaikaisesti niin monessa maassa. En myöskään ymmärrä, miksi yritys haluaa maksaa isoa osinkoa nyt, kun velkaantuneisuusaste on korkea.

[Brian Feroldi @BrianFeroldi]

Warren Buffett talking to Peter Lynch:

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

We began accumulating shares in @Hertz late last year, and as of today, we have a 19.8% stake in the company comprised of outright share ownership and total return swaps.

Hertz can be thought of as an operating company combined with a highly leveraged portfolio of automobiles. A misstep years ago with respect to the company’s purchase of Teslas created operating issues, some customer demand issues, and exposed the company to an unanticipated reduction in residual values when @Tesla dramatically reduced the price of its cars, leading to large operating losses.

We believe that a combination of: (1) an improving industry structure and more rational competitive behavior, (2) the near resolution of the company’s over exposure to Teslas, (3) a successful operational turnaround plan under a new management team with a track record of success in an adjacent industry, and (4) the company’s leveraged capital structure will enable Hertz shareholders to generate a highly attractive return on investment.

The U.S. car rental industry operates as an oligopoly where @Enterprise, @Avis, and Hertz account for nearly 95% of the market. The industry’s pricing discipline has improved since the pandemic. Enterprise’s high profit margins (we believe +20%) – currently, the best managed industry player – demonstrate that the car rental business can be very profitable.

We believe that the improvements that CEO Gil West and his management team are making by rotating Hertz’s fleet, increasing unit revenues, and reducing operating costs will significantly improve profit margins over the next several years. Hertz has already made meaningful progress in rotating out higher cost vehicles that had temporarily elevated depreciation expense, which should meaningfully lower vehicle depreciation going forward.

While Hertz has a highly leveraged balance sheet today, the substantial majority of the company’s debt does not mature until 2028 and 2029. Hertz has ample liquidity – including cash on hand, available revolver capacity, and
debt capacity within its asset-backed securitization facilities – to support its fleet rotation, and to address maturities and other financial liabilities.

Hertz is uniquely well-positioned in the current tariff environment, where auto tariffs are likely to cause used car prices to rise. Hertz owns a fleet of over 500,000 vehicles valued at approximately $12 billion. A 10% increase in used car prices would equate to a $1.2 billion gain on its auto assets – equivalent to approximately half of the company’s current market capitalization.

The company finalized its 2025 model year purchases with OEMs earlier this year on attractive terms prior to the tariffs being enacted, ensuring a favorable basis in the replacement fleet.

Valuation
Using management’s nearer term targets of $1,500 revenue per unit (RPU), low $30s/day vehicle operating expenses, and ~$300 depreciation per unit (DPU), and assuming modest increases by 2029, including an increase in fleet utilization from 80% to 85%, we estimate that Hertz could generate approximately $2 billion of Adjusted EBITDA (a metric which is net of auto depreciation and interest expense for the company’s fleet and asset-backed financing).

At 7.5 times EBITDA, a valuation that we believe to be conservative in light of improvements in the competitive posture of the industry, we estimate that Hertz will be worth ~$30 per share by 2029.

While the tariff announcements have created a near-term cloud over the travel industry – we have low expectations for Hertz’s Q1 and r first half results – we believe that over the intermediate term, the company will generate sustainably higher profitability.

Now for a fun thought experiment:

What if UBER partnered with Hertz on an AV fleet roll out over time?

Hertz’s large installed fleet of 500k vehicles, its expertise in vehicle maintenance and servicing, and the significant scope and scale of its thousands of locations (11,200 globally) and other difficult to replace at scale physical infrastructure make it an ideal partner for @Uber, a partnership which could greatly improve the utilization and profitability of Hertz’s vehicle fleet.

Come to think of it, I am going to call @dkhos.

Investing is risky. There are no guarantees of a successful outcome. Caveat emptor.

[Boring_Business @BoringBiz_]

The best investor in the world is holding $300 billion of cash and you are buying?

[internet hall of fame @InternetH0F]

Teacher of the year award goes to this guy

[Magnus Andersson🦎 @Lou_Mannheim]

Boeing- Proudly made in America! 🙂

[ Q-Cap  @qcapital2020]

Compounding

[Boring_Business @BoringBiz_]

Total number of US-listed public companies vs private equity-backed businesses

A clear trend in private equity becoming increasingly important to our overall economy

[Kevin Carpenter @kejca]

Charlie Munger on the difference between investing in mediocre companies and great ones.

[🇺🇦 HSEn viimeinen hissipoika 🛗 @hissipoika]

Wolt (2024):
-liikevaihto 105M€
-tulos -579M€ (mistä 125M€ työntekijöiden bonukset) 😂

[Jonathan @JonathanStolpe]

@SteadyCompound Valuation, thanks!

[Jonathan @JonathanStolpe]

@JohannesKuusis1 Hyvä kuva! Mikä kirja kyseessä?

[Finding Compounders @F_Compounders]

As time horizons grew, equity losses plummeted.

Stay focused on the long term !!

Source:S&P, Bloomberg , BofA

[Sami Pakarinen @SaPakarinen]

Millainen on Suomen talouden iso kuva?

Tässä tiivistys. Onneksi tämä tulevaisuudenkuva saadaan kirkkaammaksi, mutta se vaatii kovasti töitä ja kipeitäkin päätöksiä. Ketjussa lisää kuvia.

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