JC

[JC @joncottonuk]

6/6
None of this means stocks are cheap, or that the oil shock won't hurt.

But it means the 3 instruments being used to call a bubble from a valuation POV are all miscalibrated.

Full piece with all the charts 👉 https://t.co/n3NIDrW0PU

[JC @joncottonuk]

1/6 Everyone says it's 2000 all over again.

CAPE at 42. Buffett Indicator at 200%. S&P/M2 above dot-com highs.

There's just one problem: all three of those instruments are broken.

A thread. 🧵

[JC @joncottonuk]

5/6 S&P ÷ M2 is the scariest chart — above 2000 highs.

But four structural biases inflate it:

→ $12T in foreign capital in US equities (not in US M2)
→ 401k growth moved savings from deposits into stocks
→ M2 velocity has halved since 1997
→ 2020 QE spike still in the data

[JC @joncottonuk]

@rushieGupta Not only you. Pasting images from clipboard crashes the mac desktop appv26.19.65

[Omas gegen Rechts Leipzig @OmasGgRechtsLE]

Hat jemand SCHNELL 100.000€? Die iranische Kinderbraut Goli Kouhkan, Opfer von körperlichem und emotionalem Missbrauch, wurde 2018 zum Tode verurteilt. Mit NUR 100.000€, kann ihr Leben gerettet werden — und die Familie ihres Mannes soll an dem Geld ersticken. #SaveGoli [RE]

[JC @joncottonuk]

@SAMRIReports Is there a gofundme?

[JC @joncottonuk]

@finimize is your audio team on holiday? Suddenly seems to be text only…

[JC @joncottonuk]

@OmniFocus All very nice all this finessing the UI, but what we really want is collaboration. The fact we use Omnifocus for ourselves but have to duplicate things into Asana etc for our teams is…less than ideal.

[JC @joncottonuk]

@instablog9ja Kid just chilling

[JC @joncottonuk]

@fan30_trans @soncharm Title suggestion: “Dogs’ Diner”

[JC @joncottonuk]

@CryptoGertje @JTheretohelp1 Imagine thinking things need to be 100% inverse to be useful signals. Anyone who has watched indices for long enough knows knows DXY is a very useful indicator for stocks.

[JC @joncottonuk]

@kwaku_piccaso @FAFO_TV No it’s not…

[JC @joncottonuk]

@HiggsBosonMusic @RebelHQ @mikegalsworthy How’s that €350m a week for the NHS going?

[JC @joncottonuk]

@RichEffects @EndWokeness Yay, bring back lynch mobs and drowning witches.

[JC @joncottonuk]

@primobe_com “Don’t put anything smaller than your elbow in your ear” -my doctor

[JC @joncottonuk]

@testesilvasauro @jjbbllkk Amen.

[JC @joncottonuk]

@elonmusk Um..