Jonnagap

The stock market has changed my life. Nothing else comes close.

[Jonnagap @jonnagap]

@dannycheng2022 That is the most important and hardest lesson. Very easy to understand. Extremely hard to follow.

[Jonnagap @jonnagap]

@VJNCapital Hard to find the constant sentiment and get the multiple expansion it may deserve.

I just came to the conclusion that there are easier battles to fight in the market

[Jonnagap @jonnagap]

@SixSigmaCapital It’s like they are paying for the party but it is everyone else thats having fun.

[Jonnagap @jonnagap]

@VJNCapital You’re right. I think the only thing Microsoft is so lacking is their own model. I think Satya will fix the Copilot issue. I feel like people are really underestimating him and Microsoft here.

[Jonnagap @jonnagap]

@VJNCapital Both great buys at this level considering their irreplaceable moats. There is no 2nd place to Microsoft in enterprise reach and no 2nd place to Meta in consumer and small business.

[Jonnagap @jonnagap]

Absolutely. It cannot be “trust us guys” narrative.

The only 2 names that can definitively show this growth fairly soon I think are $META and $GOOG.

Meta because they have a single largest use case for agentic commerce being the largest recipient of small business ad dollars and attention. But it’s going to take some effort to show this clearly to the market (even though I am already convinced!)

Google because they are the only player that is completely vertically integrated from Chip to application at the frontier level.

I think everyone else has to struggle to make their case.

[Jonnagap @jonnagap]

You just have to remember that the very names that are flying right now lay dead for years and years.

Look at $MU $INTC $IBM $DELL

$MELI $AXON turn will come. However, I doubt there runs will be anywhere as explosive as the above names.

But I think the overall lesson here is that one definitely needs significant exposure to the AI names in a portfolio. It is going to be very hard to outperform the index without those names.

But at the same time, one can’t build a portfolio with just those names only.

In my case, I do have significant holdings in $MELI $AXON and $ISRG. But I also hold significant positions in $TSM $AMD $NVDA $MU $AVGO.

Would I have been better off in terms of pure returns if I didn’t have those positions in MELI Axon and ISRG and put that money into other AI stocks? Sure!

But I would rather a slightly weaker return for holding a portfolio that holds not just today’s winners but also tomorrow’s.

[Jonnagap @jonnagap]

@SayNoToTrading @JamesTrvdes Just curious if you are keeping your rocket lab position that large due to tax considerations from the cap gains or is that symbolic of how bullish you are on the company? I definitely know where you stand on Amazon!

[Jonnagap @jonnagap]

I think the common perception is that $Meta is spending recklessly. Hence the suppressed multiple. But that’s also an easily reversible problem that can lead to massive re-rating.

$Meta has a near stranglehold on small business marketing budgets. Adding agentic AI services to that is like rocket fuel.

In 3 years time, I can see them have a huge service business with recurring revenue on the side from being the agentic service vendor to small businesses as they are where customers and small business are meeting.

Yes, it is unnerving to watch Zuck spend. But I think it’s going to pay off.

I have added heavily to $Meta and $Nvda at these levels. First adds since liberation day.

[Jonnagap @jonnagap]

Yup. At this point investors are simply paying for the loyal installed base and not really a company.

To call Apple unambitious and lethargic would be an understatement. While the other large tech companies are borrowing handover fist to build the Tech of the future, Apple is sitting there acting like they are Coca Cola or General Mills.

Being disciplined “capital allocators” is simply a mask to conceal the truth about a complete lack of creativity and imagination at the leadership level.

[Jonnagap @jonnagap]

@VJNCapital I hear you!

[Jonnagap @jonnagap]

Agree. I feel like the fact that it’s always at such a valuation irrespective of news and market conditions is a feature and not a bug. Just like with $COST

It’s hard to find any companies at the intersection of the most defensive sector long term (healthcare) and the most promising sector of the next several decades (robotics).

Plus the switching costs are unimaginable. It’s truly a gem.

[Jonnagap @jonnagap]

@saxena_puru Why be in cash when you can buy down names like $NFLX. The risk reward there is way better than holding that much cash.

Having said that, I am sitting on a larger than usual cash position. But actively deploying into names that I think win in this next round.

[Jonnagap @jonnagap]

@SelfMadeMastery I bought $NFLX $CRVW $CELH $ISRG

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@benitoz @firstadopter Imagine the drive and hunger to hustle this hard sitting where he is. He is 1 of 1

[Jonnagap @jonnagap]

@SelfMadeMastery Agree. I was on the fence till I see everyone on X piling on the abuse!

[Jonnagap @jonnagap]

@anni_sen Makes sense! Glad to see you’ve had a great run this year! Cheers 🥂

[Jonnagap @jonnagap]

@anni_sen I took some profits on Micron in the 1000s. I got in at the 340s thanks to you 😊

Any reason you are staying away from Dram? Is it because you think pure $MU is the best way to play this?