I want to share our new publication titled “Commodity Prices and Production Networks in Small Open Economies” (joint with @Asilvub P. Caraiani and J. Olaya) at the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control https://t.co/QITcUV1CVC
New paper on recent US tariffs with Matt Rognlie and @a_auclert
Our focus: effects of temporary increases in tariffs (“tariff shocks")
Three Qs:
1 Will tariffs lead to a recession?
2 Will they reduce the trade deficit?
3 Why are they not appreciating USD? (as in std theory)
🧵
📢📊Can professional forecasters be "Rationally Inactive"?
Along with the great @isaacbaley we wrote a VOXEU Column to discuss the main findings of our recent paper "Lumpy Forecasts". https://t.co/lHt7ggzDGK
Interesting to see some basic demand theory applied to tariff choices. So…
What’s wrong with it?
Used in isolation on a single small trading partner the formula makes some sense. But if applied widely to many non trivial ones it does not. 1/2
@AriamSofi@settenisok Peor que el promedio, sobretodo hoy. No digo que el peor de todos. En USA y Australia he estado en estos casos, locales vs otros. A mejorar lo que hay que mejorar y punto.
@AriamSofi@settenisok No concuerdo. No es una discriminación contra latam. Es simplemente que en latam nos portamos peor. Pareciera al final que Cerundolo le pide perdón en nombre del público, no?
@heeney_luke It covers 4 of the 5 points suggested for math preparation, with the exception of real and complex analysis. This is advanced economics master level in many countries. About real/complex analysis, it can help but not a must. In most PhD programs you learn in your 1st year anyways
@heeney_luke Plus, if you’re interested in economic policy, having a solid background in economics and econometrics is key for succeeding at places like the RBA, Treasury, or the Productivity Commission. Key jobs for a country. If you can get these skills in programs such as BAFE, great too
@heeney_luke It’s not that they’re bad for finance or consulting—it’s just that they aren’t really designed for those jobs. On the other hand, if you’re thinking about a PhD in economics, an honours degree in econ is a much better choice than a math degree.
@abestar777@S_RF_CA@TvRFTennis Federer faked running to his backhand (very subtle but effective) hoping for a shot to his forehand. Smart(er) in those key points.
@pavyg@DeadGod60434@alexdeminaur He could have done better? Perhaps, we all do every second. So is your feedback : just believe more in yourself Alex? Alex will potentially become a top-4 but if he does not, what is the big deal? I am sure he wants that more than anyone. He is a great player and person.