Alvaro Silva

Economist at @BostonFed. All views expressed are my own.

[Alvaro Silva @Asilvub]

1/8 New NBER WP: Why do Sudden Stops hit EMs harder? We show production networks (may) amplify shocks via profits→collateral→borrowing. Joint w/ Jorge (@JorgeMirandaPi5), Eugenio (@_e_r_b), and Felipe. https://t.co/fucj5jJchD

[Alvaro Silva @Asilvub]

@ErnestoPasten2 @johar_arrieta @peterkaradi @antonnakov @NunoGalo @DominikThaler1 Tremendo! Congrats!

[Alvaro Silva @Asilvub]

@mickey_gb @pontus_rendahl Indeed! The point I wanted to make was that we need to define what the "AI industry" means in the data, precisely because its sales and, more importantly, its network position [+others] may matter for aggregates, as you pointed out.

[Alvaro Silva @Asilvub]

@mickey_gb @pontus_rendahl I guess then an important question is how can we truly construct the size of the “AI industry/sector” in the data. Not obvious to me how to do so at a first glance.

[Alvaro Silva @Asilvub]

@CesarChavezP29 Unconventional Latin American paths make the journey harder, but those experiences shape our view of the world. It turns out to be a gift at the end IMO. You'll do great! Wishing you the best in the upcoming season!

[Marco Rojas @marcorojas89]

📢 ¡Estamos contratando!
🏦 En @bcentralchile estamos buscando 1 analista (similar a RA, pre-doc)
👩‍💼🧑‍💼Gran ambiente laboral, exposición a temas de frontera en economía, increíbles datos, y apoyo para estudiar fuera
📅 Postula hasta el 01/06
https://t.co/cB87lHaZqg

[Alvaro Silva @Asilvub]

@soumitrashukla9 I thought this was gonna take a bit more time [for them to remove the $20 subcription]. Impressive how fast this is going.

[Alvaro Silva @Asilvub]

Ya ps. Estariamos entonces

[Bernardo Fontaine @berfontaine]

Cuánto Chile creció más rápido del orden de 6,5% anual, en los noventa, la tasa de impuesto a las empresas, que es la que pagan las empresas por ahorrar e invertir sus utilidades, era 15%. Con 27%, crecemos al 2% anual. Impuestos altos a la inversión nos condena a la mediocridad

[Alvaro Silva @Asilvub]

@MahdiKahou Indeed, a gem. Always admired how @JesusFerna7026 can explain this in plain English, making connections to several literatures and other parallelisms along the way. Thanks for sharing!

[Alvaro Silva @Asilvub]

🥳🥳🥳

[OpenAI @OpenAI]

We’re updating our ChatGPT Pro and Plus subscriptions to better support the growing use of Codex.

We’re introducing a new $100/month Pro tier. This new tier offers 5x more Codex usage than Plus and is best for longer, high-effort Codex sessions.

In ChatGPT, this new Pro tier still offers access to all Pro features, including the exclusive Pro model and unlimited access to Instant and Thinking models.

To celebrate the launch, we’re increasing Codex usage for a limited time through May 31st so that Pro $100 subscribers get up to 10x usage of ChatGPT Plus on Codex to build your most ambitious ideas.

[Ivan Werning @IvanWerning]

Congratulations to Ludwig! Extremely well deserved. Very happy for him and a testament to all his great coauthors. Here he is as a 3rd or 4th year student presenting in our macro student lunch at MIT.

[The Will of Marco (マルコの意志) @TheWillOfMarco]

One Piece Chapter 1179 will go down in history as the chapter that finally revealed Imu’s face and true character design—after 8 long years since his introduction in Chapter 906. 📖

To all our fellow One Piece nakamas who have sadly passed away without witnessing this historic moment… we honor you, we remember you, and we pray for your souls. 🕊️

We who are still here are truly fortunate—to witness these peak moments, to feel the excitement, and to continue the journey. 🌊

For those of us who are still here, let us engrave these scenes and moments deep into our hearts and minds… because one day, when we meet again beyond this world, it will be our duty to tell them everything—the full story of this masterpiece which is called "One Piece." 🏴‍☠️📜

Stay safe. Stay healthy.

Let’s keep sailing together… until the very end of One Piece. 🌅⛵

Onwards to Laugh Tale!!! 👉🌊

[Alvaro Silva @Asilvub]

Needed to read this!!! thanks @GusMicrotoMacro

[Gustavo de Souza @GusMicrotoMacro]

This is my overall take on research: follow your calling. Write a paper that only you could have written.

Each of us is a unique, complex individual. We have our own experiences, knowledge, curiosity, interests, fears, loves, and traumas. These rich personal idiosyncrasies, if well channeled, can translate into a new angle on any topic.

If it’s a question someone else could have answered, in a way someone else could have done it, written as someone else would have written it, LET SOMEONE ELSE DO IT. That is not your calling.

There is something out there, in the space of all knowledge to be gained, that only YOU could have taught the world. Your mission is to find that and teach us.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ And I, honestly, look forward to that.

[Alvaro Silva @Asilvub]

@totuma87 Sin duda. Yo creo que eso no esta en discusion. Me parece que la discusion es si deberian pagarlo asi de un momento a otro o algo mas gradual. Quizas habia espacio para gradualidad. Y esto habla directamente a lo de mas arriba.

[Alvaro Silva @Asilvub]

1/
Con el alza de la gasolina de 370 pesos en Chile, no me aguanté y dado que ejecución ahora es menos costosa (gracias Codex y CC! 🤖) me puse a mirar la data. Respuesta: enorme mes a mes, no tan enorme año a año👇[todo nominal!]

Obviamente: mi opinión y no la de mi empleador.

[Alvaro Silva @Asilvub]

@totuma87 Ahi la pregunta es: cual bienestar? Lifetime? Proximos 4 años? Y ya condicional en eso, estaran haciendo la optimizacion bien (?) [esto ya es mas en la linea de misspecification/non-rationality del problema de parte del gob].

[Alvaro Silva @Asilvub]

@totuma87 Me quedo con esta parte “no tengo claro cual es la funcion objetivo/constraints”. Estamos en la misma pagina yo creo. Por esto decia “hay algo que no estoy viendo”.

Quizas el feasible set que tienen es distinto del que yo creo? Porque Quiero pensar que buscan max bienestar.

[Alvaro Silva @Asilvub]

@totuma87 Aun le estoy dando vuelta.

Fijo no quieren seguir la tendencia de deuda.

No veo que el nivel de deuda sea tan alto como para meter un shock de este estilo [traspasa todo a consumidores]. Me habria inclinado por algo + híbrido/programado. Pero quizás me falta info?

[Alvaro Silva @Asilvub]

Y bueno, no ando tan lejos con mi calculito simple. Veremos :)

[Nicolás Paut @nicopaut]

¡OJO! Se proyecta IPC de 0,8% en marzo y 1,4% en abril. Con eso, la UF subirá $800 y pasará $40.000 la primera quincena de mayo.

Con todo esto, imposible que el Banco Central baje la tasa de interés en el corto plazo.

[Alvaro Silva @Asilvub]

También debo el punto 4; se perdió en el camino. A ver si lo encuentro algún día.

[Alvaro Silva @Asilvub]

PD: si a alguien le interesa, más rato subo los datos y los códigos de Python! Dejé muchas cosas fuera [a uds miro amig@s economistas!] pero era para decir que cadenas de producción importan, algo en lo que pienso seguido y creo toma más relevancia estos dias /Fin