JoeMoran

CEO - M3 Miner Repair

[JoeMoran @JosephMoranP]

Habits are the steadiest customers, mostly because nobody ever reviews them. Procter & Gamble ($PG) brought in $23.3B this quarter.

Since COVID: +6.73% a year in dollars, a whisker ahead of the money supply's +6.58%. In bitcoin: −23% a year.

[JoeMoran @JosephMoranP]

$TSLA CY26 Q3, priced in bitcoin

Revenue: ₿394,065 = 1.9% of the 21M cap
YoY: +61% in BTC, −0% in USD (avg BTC $71k vs $114k)
Net income: ₿11,058 (−8%)

4-yr TTM revenue: +38% USD · −42% BTC · −43% gold
Grew 8.5%/yr; holding BTC value needed 24.4%/yr (missed)

[JoeMoran @JosephMoranP]

$META CY26 Q3, priced in bitcoin

Revenue: ₿907,687 = 4.3% of the 21M cap
YoY: +103% in BTC, +26% in USD (avg BTC $71k vs $114k)
Net income: ₿138,540 (+485%)

4-yr TTM revenue: +105% USD · −11% BTC · −16% gold
Grew 19.6%/yr; holding BTC value needed 23.1%/yr (missed)

[JoeMoran @JosephMoranP]

Even the most dependable soap in the cupboard can't quite stay clean against a currency that keeps expanding.

$PG reports today before the open

Shareholder return per year since COVID (2019 base):
In dollars: +6.56% ✗ vs M2 +6.58%
In bitcoin: −26% ✗ vs issuance +1.8%

[JoeMoran @JosephMoranP]

Mostly gold stars in dollars, a gentle note home in bitcoin.

Today before the open: 3 reports

Shareholder return per year since COVID, in dollars (vs M2 +6.6%) | in bitcoin (vs issuance +1.8%):

$PG +6.6% ✗ | −26% ✗
UNP +10% ✓ | −23% ✗
CMCSA +35% ✓ | +0.4% ✗

[JoeMoran @JosephMoranP]

Stillness only registers when something nearby moves. Tesla ($TSLA) took in $28.0B this quarter, −0.2% on a year ago in dollars, yet +61% in bitcoin. Measured against four years ago, that same bitcoin figure is −61%.

[JoeMoran @JosephMoranP]

Being the best is comforting until someone changes the room. Of today's reporters, 5 of 6 beat the money supply since COVID, but 0 of 6 beat bitcoin issuance. $TMO led in dollars at +14% a year; in bitcoin, its best is −19%.

[JoeMoran @JosephMoranP]

$JNJ CY26 Q3, priced in bitcoin

Revenue: ₿360,260 = 1.7% of the 21M cap
YoY: +72% in BTC, +6% in USD (avg BTC $71k vs $114k)
Net income: ₿2,979 (−93%)
EPS: 128 sats/share

[JoeMoran @JosephMoranP]

A sprint always looks more impressive than the walk before it. Texas Instruments ($TXN) made $6.1B, +28% on a year ago. Since COVID: +6.8% a year in dollars, barely ahead of the money supply, and −24% a year in bitcoin.

[JoeMoran @JosephMoranP]

Good news tends to be announced in whichever currency suits it best. Meta ($META) took in $64.6B, +26% on a year ago, and beat expectations.

Since COVID, per year: +7.8% in dollars, −25% in bitcoin.

[JoeMoran @JosephMoranP]

Bitcoin's past self turns out to have wildly inconsistent standards.

Does the start date matter? Same test, three anchors:

GFC (2007): beat M2 54/59
COVID (2019): beat M2 67/78, beat bitcoin 3/78
2022 rate shock (2021): beat M2 68/81, beat bitcoin 29/81

[JoeMoran @JosephMoranP]

Marking your own homework tends to produce good grades. Since COVID, 67 of 78 big companies beat growth in the money supply, and 62 of 78 beat federal debt. Against bitcoin's issuance: 3 of 78. Closest in bitcoin: $MU, +11%/yr.

[JoeMoran @JosephMoranP]

Shareholder return = cash-flow yield + per-share growth. In dollars | in bitcoin, per year:

$AMD +60% | +9.4%
MU +55% | +11%
GM +39% | +3.8%
CMCSA +35% | +0.4%
CRM +33% | −4.8%
INTU +32% | −4.3%
ANET +32% | −9.1%
ADBE +31% | −5.6%

[JoeMoran @JosephMoranP]

Flip: $GM's shareholder return since COVID now outgrows bitcoin's supply.

In bitcoin terms: +3.8% a year
Bitcoin's supply: +1.8% a year
In dollars: +39% a year

For once, the bitcoin chart has to look up.

[JoeMoran @JosephMoranP]

Forecasts are written in the currency analysts are paid in, which is convenient.

$META needs $92.8B of revenue this quarter to match Q3 '22 in bitcoin terms. The Street expects $63.3B.

Clearing that would take a rather tired bitcoin.

[JoeMoran @JosephMoranP]

Impressing your former self now requires a rather larger quarter.

$LRCX reports today after the close

Shareholder return per year since COVID (2019 base):
In dollars: +21% ✓ vs M2 +6.6%
In bitcoin: −17% ✗ vs issuance +1.8%

Revenue to match Q3 '22 in BTC: $16.9B

[JoeMoran @JosephMoranP]

Today after the close: 5 reports

Shareholder return per year since COVID, in dollars (vs M2 +6.6%) | in bitcoin (vs issuance +1.8%):

$META +15% ✓ | −22% ✗
TSLA +24% ✓ | −18% ✗
LRCX +21% ✓ | −17% ✗
TXN +1.4% ✗ | −30% ✗
IBM +7.1% ✓ | −25% ✗

[JoeMoran @JosephMoranP]

Risk, it turns out, is whatever currency you weren't counting in.

$TSLA reports today after the close

Shareholder return per year since COVID (2019 base):
In dollars: +24% ✓ vs M2 +6.6%
In bitcoin: −18% ✗ vs issuance +1.8%

Revenue to match Q3 '22 in BTC: $71.9B

[JoeMoran @JosephMoranP]

Tomorrow before the open: 6 reports

Shareholder return per year since COVID, in dollars (vs M2 +6.6%) | in bitcoin (vs issuance +1.8%):

$PM +9.2% ✓ | −24% ✗
TMO +14% ✓ | −22% ✗
ABT +14% ✓ | −21% ✗
T +3.8% ✗ | −26% ✗
DHR +12% ✓ | −23% ✗
+1 more