Joumanna Nasr Bercetche

Anchor of Bloomberg Horizons Mideast & Africa. Chief Mideast Correspondent @bloombergtv . On maternity leave now.

[Joumanna Nasr Bercetche @JoumannaTV]

Welcome to our new show
Bloomberg Horizons Middle East & Africa is now launched!
#BloombergHorizons @business @bloombergtv

[Piers Morgan @piersmorgan]

WTF????

[Annmarie Hordern @annmarie]

Cleanview: Nine states now have a governor or governor-elect who has promised or already imposed a pause on new data centers. Those states hold 158.6 GW of planned capacity, or 41% of the US pipeline.

[Amena Bakr @Amena__Bakr]

The blue wave pushes prices down

[Salih Yilmaz @salihenergy]

Latest in energy:

1. Oil is holding near a two-month low -- Brent is around $95/bbl and WTI near $88, more than 20% below October highs as markets price a lower near-term risk of renewed US-Iran escalation.

2. European gas is down almost 20% this week -- TTF is near €86/MWh, but the physical balance remains tight: EU storage is only around 74% full and Germany is near 61%.

3. Asian LNG has slipped below $30/MMBtu -- lower prices are starting to pull South and Southeast Asian buyers back into the spot market after weeks of very expensive cargoes.

4. BP has sold a 5% stake in Aker BP for about $1.1bn -- reducing its holding to roughly 10.9% as balance-sheet repair remains a priority. BP now expects around $9bn of divestment and other proceeds this year.

5. Lower crude is giving Asian oil importers some relief -- currencies including the Philippine peso and Thai baht have strengthened as the recent oil selloff eases pressure on import bills and external balances.

6. Engie is guiding toward the top of its profit range -- the French utility says full-year recurring net income should land toward the upper end of its €4.9-€5.5bn guidance after a strong nine months.

7. Emerging Asia’s LNG buildout is struggling -- IEEFA says a large share of planned import terminals and gas-fired power projects across markets including Vietnam, the Philippines, Thailand and Bangladesh have been canceled or stalled as financing and fuel costs rise.

The broader theme: energy prices are falling quickly as geopolitical risk comes out of the market, but the underlying system still looks tight in gas and LNG -- while high financing and fuel costs continue to reshape investment decisions. #OOTT #TTF

[Kaitlan Collins @kaitlancollins]

Asked when the Iran war will end, Trump says, "Whenever I want it to."

[Jake Tapper 🦅 @jaketapper]

Lots of focus on the “End the war” part of this VP Vance what-went-wrong list but the
“Change our relationship to Israel” is far more longer lasting as a policy decision and arguably more consequential as a GOP policy change.

[Joumanna Nasr Bercetche @JoumannaTV]

Eventually all US administrations learn that actively engaging in wars in the Middle East becomes a political liability back home

[Joumanna Nasr Bercetche @JoumannaTV]

“The reason we lost is the war”
The VP in a moment of contrition.

Adds: was it worth it?

[JD Vance @JDVance]

One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.

So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."

Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.

There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.

But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.

Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:

1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel

Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)

In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.

The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.

If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.

But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.

I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.

[Joumanna Nasr Bercetche @JoumannaTV]

The war has exposed the vulnerability of US presidents to disruptions in Gulf energy supplies.Future admins will have to consider how quickly a military confrontation in the Mideast can translate into higher gasoline prices, domestic political pressure, &electoral consequences ⬇️

[Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش @citrinowicz]

The Midterms May Signal the End of the War with Iran, Even if Another Round of Escalation Comes First

The midterm elections may ultimately be remembered as the turning point that brought the war with Iran to an end. That does not mean another round of escalation is off the table. Trump may still decide to launch a major strike to demonstrate strength, pressure Tehran into concessions, and claim victory before ending the campaign.

But the political reality in Washington has changed. The connection between the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, rising global oil prices, and higher gasoline prices for American consumers is difficult to ignore. What began as a military confrontation thousands of miles from American shores has become a domestic economic and political problem. Americans are paying more at the pump, and the administration is paying a political price.

This is precisely what Tehran hoped to achieve. By disrupting energy flows through Hormuz, Iran sought to demonstrate that Washington cannot wage war in the Persian Gulf without consequences for the American economy and, ultimately, the president's political standing. The midterm results suggest that this strategy has had an impact.

Trump now faces another problem. He certainly does not want to be remembered as the president whose war with Iran contributed to a major Republican electoral defeat. With Democrats gaining power in Congress and growing concerns within his own party, the political space for continuing an open-ended confrontation is narrowing. At some point, the cost of sustaining the conflict may become greater than the political benefits of continuing it.

Of course, this is Trump, and predicting his next move is never straightforward. He may respond to political pressure by escalating rather than compromising, particularly if he believes another powerful strike could allow him to declare victory on his own terms.

Nevertheless,it seems that the elections mark the beginning of the end of the current campaign against Iran, even if another military confrontation takes place before it concludes.

The longer-term implications may be even more significant. The war has exposed the vulnerability of American presidents to disruptions in Gulf energy supplies. Future administrations will have to consider how quickly a military confrontation in the Middle East can translate into higher gasoline prices, domestic political pressure, and electoral consequences.

This experience could fundamentally change Washington's calculations regarding military intervention in the region. And Tehran, having witnessed the political impact of its ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, is unlikely to forget the lesson either.

#Iran
#iran

[Peter Baker @peterbakernyt]

The Democratic margin of victory in the overall national vote for House seats is expected to be about 13 percentage points, per @nytimes projection, the largest that either party has lodged in a congressional election since at least 1976. https://t.co/8VEgtFcY65

[Joumanna Nasr Bercetche @JoumannaTV]

One of the biggest winners of the US midterms?

Gadi Eisenkot.

Odds of him becoming next Israeli PM have shot up from 25% to 42% overnight on Kalshi

[Joumanna Nasr Bercetche @JoumannaTV]

“Iran was a piece of it”

[Joumanna Nasr Bercetche @JoumannaTV]

@piersmorgan Who will win the PL this year?

[Joumanna Nasr Bercetche @JoumannaTV]

One perspective on what the Blue Wave could mean for Netanyahu’s future ⬇️

[Amir Tibon אמיר תיבון @amirtibon]

התוצאה הלילה בארצות-הברית היא רעידת אדמה פוליטית, ויש לה השלכות חשובות מאד על ישראל. קחו כמה דקות לקרוא, זה חשוב.

הדמוקרטים השיגו הלילה ניצחון מוחלט, אבל באמת, לא בסיסמא. ניצחון שגם הסקרים הכי אופטימיים עבורם לא יכלו לחזות.

הם מסיימים את הלילה עם כ-250 מושבים בקונגרס, הרוב הכי גדול בעשרים שנה האחרונות, ועם שורה של ניצחונות בלתי-נתפסים בסנאט: טקסס, קנזס, דרום קרוליינה - מדינות שהם לא ניצחו בהן עשרות שנים.

טראמפ חטף מפלה היסטורית, והשנתיים האחרונות של הנשיאות שלו יוקדשו לחקירות בלתי-פוסקות שלו, של משפחתו, של יועציו ואנשיו, על-ידי ועדות הקונגרס בשליטת הדמוקרטים. הוא לא יכול יותר למנות שופטים, לא יכול לקדם חקיקה, וגם הכוח שלו לקדם הסכמים בינלאומיים מאד מוגבל - קשה לדמיין את הקונגרס הזה מאשר חבילת הטבות ענקית לסעודיה בשביל הסכם עם ישראל. לפחות לא כל עוד נתניהו ראש ממשלה.

דבר אחד צריך להיות ברור, גם לאור ההתחזקות המטאורית של הדמוקרטים וגם לאור הכעס והאכזבה בצד הרפבוליקאי: המשך כהונתו של נתניהו זו סכנה מיידית ליחסים המיוחדים שלנו עם ארצות הברית.

נתניהו רעיל בעיני הדמוקרטים, הם זועמים עליו על היחס המשפיל שלו כלפי אובמה וביידן, על כפיות הטובה כלפי יהדות ארצות-הברית, על ההתערבות הבלתי-פוסקת שלו בפוליטיקה הפנימית שלהם.

העניין הוא שאחרי הלילה הזה, נתניהו הופך לרעיל גם בעיני הרפובליקאים. הם הולכים להאשים אותו בהפסד שלהם, בתור מי שדחף את הנשיא טראמפ לסבב לחימה ארוך, יקר ומתסכל מול איראן. פרשנים שמקורבים לסגן הנשיא ואנס כבר מתחילים לצייץ את המסר הזה: הפסדנו בגלל שהקשבנו לנתניהו. המסר הזה רק יילך ויתחזק בימים הקרובים.

המשך כהונה שלו זה מתכון לאסון בזירה האמריקאית, במיוחד אחרי הניסיון המחפיר שלו לבטל את תוצאות הבחירות בישראל ולגייס למשימה המלוכלכת הזו את ראש השב"כ זיני. חשוב לזכור, אין לישראל תחליף לארצות-הברית בזירה הבינלאומית, פשוט אין. וכיום בארה"ב, המותג נתניהו הוא מותג רע מאד, שגורם נזק מסוכן לישראל.

הערה לגבי המשא ומתן הקואליציוני: נתניהו מבטיח לשותפים שלו לצאת לבחירות נוספות ולהביא בהן 61 מנדטים. זו הבטחה שקרית. גם אם הוא יביא 61 מנדטים בבחירות חוזרות (אני בספק אם זה יכול לקרות), נתניהו לא יוכל להקים שוב ממשלה עם בן-גביר, אלא אם הוא רוצה להביא סנקציות משתקות על מדינת ישראל. גם סמוטריץ והמפלגות החרדיות צריכים להבין את זה. ממשלת בן-גביר 2.0 לא תקום, אלא אם רוצים שמדינת ישראל פשוט תתאבד.

אם ישראל רוצה להתחיל לשקם את מעמדה הגרוע מאד בארה"ב, היא חייבת להיפרד מנתניהו. זה לא יפתור את כל הבעיות שלנו בזירה האמריקאית, אפילו לא חצי מהן. אבל זה צעד ראשון והכרחי, שבלעדיו הדברים הולכים להידרדר למקומות מסוכנים מאד.

[Joumanna Nasr Bercetche @JoumannaTV]

Does the lame duck period (before new Congress take seats in Jan) increase probability of Iran War escalation?

Does an angry Trump ramp up intensity with hopes (once again) of a decisive blow OR does he become more inclined to get a deal over the line &try to close this chapter

[Joumanna Nasr Bercetche @JoumannaTV]

NYT: In an interview with two Times reporters, President Trump blamed the G.O.P.’s losses on the fact that he was not on the ballot and said he was willing to work with Democrats.

President Trump said Tuesday night that he would accept the results of the midterm elections

[Joumanna Nasr Bercetche @JoumannaTV]

Not a great ROI

Via FT

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

Trump calls @EdwardGLuce out of the blue to tell him he's not planning to bomb Iran.

[Joumanna Nasr Bercetche @JoumannaTV]

It wasn’t me

[Kaitlan Collins @kaitlancollins]

President Trump is still watching the election results in the East Room tonight. As his handpicked candidates are struggling, a White House official is offering this assessment: "President Trump did a better job promoting many of the candidates on the ballot than the candidates did themselves."

"President Trump was not on the ballot, and it’s proven that Trump voters show up when he is on the ballot."

[Joumanna Nasr Bercetche @JoumannaTV]

Waking up in Dubai to big likelihood of Democratic sweep as counting underway. House already projected to move towards Democrat control by Decision Desk HQ. Senate moving in that direction

Bloomberg has lifted paywall for election night coverage. Follow live blog there