@renzosalpha To not try to turn $1k into $1m. Realize first the path is to turn $1k into $1.5k. Then turn $1.5k into $2k. Scale responsibly until you meet your goal. Trying to turn $1k into $1m will result in $0k.
Highly recommend listening to Stan Druckenmiller's latest interview with Morgan Stanley.
Some of my favourite thoughts:
- Contrarianism is overrated. The crowd is right 80% of the time - just don't get caught in the other 20%
- Your edge isn't being right, it's sizing when you're right and cutting when you're wrong. Soros playbook.
- You don't need to understand everything. He couldn't spell Nvidia. He trusted people smarter than him on the details, then made the call
- Volatility isn't the enemy. It's your entry point if you have conviction
- TA and price/news signals worked until everyone learned them. Edge dies when it becomes consensus
- Courage (Balls) matters more than wisdom. He's smarter now than in his 30s and was a better PM then. He had more nerve
- Scars don't go away - and they shouldn't. But mistakes are a moment in time. Get over it and move on
- Growth investors didn't want Teva, value investors didn't want it either. That's exactly where the opportunity was - stocks stuck in no man's land between investor bases
- Where the smartest young people are going is a leading indicator. He tracked Stanford kids shifting from crypto to AI before the trade was obvious
- Knowing when something is big doesn't mean you'll hold it perfectly. He sold Nvidia at 800, it went to 1400. Even with the right thesis you'll still screw up the execution
- Pattern recognition compounds over decades. There's no silver bullet, just 40 years of seeing things before
Threadguy realizes that OG traders during the dotcom bubble were just like memecoin traders today
“This is literally the pumpfun trenches, 20 people in a room trading new pairs”
“This is deadass Cupsey on Axiom, buying like 8% pre bond”