Only one scenario saves bitcoin:native and $MSTR in the short-term.
Saylor has to come out and say (via Monday's 8K, or next Monday's 8K):
"I sold $4 bn of MSTR and BTC... we now have 2.5 years before we have to raise money again... dividends are covered for 2+ years, debt doesn't mature til sept 2028 (puttable in 2027) and that's easy to refinance via more converts".
If he does that, the market rips, and might even rip 20-30%. It once again makes MSTR uninteresting for years, but that's a good thing. STRC probably goes back close to $100, but he won't be able to sell more. And while capital markets might be closed to MSTR for awhile, it at least buys a ton of time, and in that time who knows what other catalysts might pop up.
He should have done this last week instead of that misguided $2.5mm teaser sale.
If he doesn't, and he continues to just wait it out (only has 5 months), or he sells tiny amounts as he goes (just enough to pay each monthly dividend), this selling won't stop
Some quick thoughts here on this BTC dip this week
Obviously the geopolitics playing their part. We started the week looking very hopeful for a US/Iran deal only to see a “not ceasefire ceasefire” 😂
The longer this drags on, the more markets will threat over inflation and Fed needing to hike (the Fed aren’t hiking under Warsh fyi)
Month end! As we always highlight, month end typically bad for liquidity and makes for choppy trading as portfolios rebalance and hedges adjust
The other point to note on the liquidity front is a heavy US bond issuance schedule over the next week with the US treasury issuing circa 150bn of bills and treasuries which again has a negative impact on liquidity
Taken together, reasonable to see us correct lower
Bear market fatigue too especially with everyone seeing stocks push new record highs and data chip companies ripping
Expect more chop into next week as liquidity remains tight (barring any real peace developments with Iran)
Pretty solid support into the 70/72k zone
As liquidity returns suspect June we test back to those 82k levels
Don’t be a Panican 💪
I stopped crying about the Bitcoin performance when I realized that there's actually no reason for $BTC to pump just because AI stocks are pumping
Its not that deep
Eventually BTC finds a reason to pump but its not now
I hate that we're so attached to Saylor, Tom Lee, some randoms on TradFi saying BTC will hit $300K by next month (every month)
We need our main characters to be less important
We're lucky to finally having tokens that perform properly without needing to piggyback off of Bitcoin
That's the game you have to play until further notice
Adapt or die
Update: Bitcoin bounced out of oversold, rallying against Gold.
Every time this has happened in Bitcoin's history, it was the start of a 2+ year bull market.
$GME on Solana ran to nearly $300M market cap. Now we’re seeing a similar setup with $HIMS.
A movement coin tied to better health, mixed with that same viral GME style narrative, could catch fire hard on TikTok and beyond.
Peptides are shaping up to be a major part of the future of healthcare and narratives like this spread fast.