Jeff Arnold

data scientist / machine learning engineer

[Jeff Arnold @jrnld]

Always surprising to see experiment systems interpreting overlapping confidence intervals as non-significance for experiments.

[Jeff Arnold @jrnld]

Initially, I was concerned about my fever of 101, but then I plotted it with the y-axis starting at zero and realized it was no big deal.

[Jeff Arnold @jrnld]

@chrisalbon So true. I'm like a different person when I'm regularly sleeping & exercising vs. not.

[Jeff Arnold @jrnld]

@seanjtaylor @MotifAnalytics Looking forward to the details! This is so cool.

[Sean J. Taylor @seanjtaylor]

At @MotifAnalytics we've adapted LLMs to work on event sequences, and how we are using this approach to generate a far deeper understanding of user experiences and behaviors. Our models don't write SQL for you, they just read your data directly! https://t.co/HR1LjSg7cx

[Jeff Arnold @jrnld]

@Carnage4Life Sounds like a nice method to have zero incrementality.

Oh someone in your timeline is already talking about Ant Man? Let's make sure we charge the advertiser for it.

[Jeff Arnold @jrnld]

@alexpghayes He's just saying that most rct designs don't attempt to estimate pate, right?

[Jeff Arnold @jrnld]

@seanjtaylor @MotifAnalytics If you are looking outside of the business domain in which you are working there are a few intl event datasets

- https://t.co/Ljtibs9VuN
- https://t.co/xdQkgpT90V

[Jeff Arnold @jrnld]

@seanjtaylor @MotifAnalytics Criteo click logs: https://t.co/IQZSUnUq3t

[Jeff Arnold @jrnld]

@seanjtaylor If you ever want to ruck or run around Lake Merritt let me know

[Jeff Arnold @jrnld]

@ManagerTactical A club's ownership made some transfers and negotiated salaries. The sum of transfer fees and its wage bill was larger than the number the ownership had in its budget. So now the club refuses to pay the player's wages and transfer fees they agreed to

[Jeff Arnold @jrnld]

@mattLarnold @HeyBethMay We need him to replicate this beauty: https://t.co/gjWxRsMBOH

[CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ @CBSSportsGolazo]

WESTON MCKENNIE!

The goal, the celebration 😍

[Sean J. Taylor @seanjtaylor]

I ❤️these slides from @mgershoff about Bayesian vs. Frequentist analysis that concludes:

"This is second order issue.... What you are testing, design of experiment, and execution are all an order of magnitude more important than form of analysis."

https://t.co/IoktWx2nrJ

[Jeff Arnold @jrnld]

@seanjtaylor @MotifAnalytics @mikpanko Congrats! Very cool.

[Sean J. Taylor @seanjtaylor]

Part 2 of "Casual Forecasting at Lyft" is out! Excited they can share how we built a reliable, holistic model of Lyft's entire business.

Great post by my former teammates @DuaneJRich and @SameerSManek (+ @heng_kuang_ was heavily involved in the project).

https://t.co/De6gCcCNBw

[Stephan Seiler @SeilerStephan]

I want to highlight one pattern in the data that surprised us and (we think) warrants further analysis:

We generate pricing policies from different demand models and evaluate profits. Surprisingly(?) profit predictions are almost uncorrelated with statistical measures of fit.

[Stephan Seiler @SeilerStephan]

"Optimal Price Targeting" (with @adamnsmith__ & @Iagg11) is now forthcoming @Mrktng_Science:

https://t.co/NkijGNDFXP

We benefitted hugely from the input of @avicgoldfarb, @Guenter_Hitsch, and 2 anonymous referees who helped us improve the paper during the review process.

[Your Friendly Neighborhood Numbersmuncher @NumbersMuncher]

This Mikhail Gorbachev Pizza Hut commercial is what historians will someday say marked the real end of the cold war and is a masterpiece.

[Jeff Arnold @jrnld]

The end of American exceptionalism: better soccer (football), less democracy

[Jeff Arnold @jrnld]

@Carnage4Life Dysfunctional for the company, but may actually be better for societal innovation. Ideas get diffused quicker through the industry due to employee turnover.