Jesus

engineering @ Stanford | prev @crossmint @morganstanley @mckinsey

[Jesus @jsantosaranda]

@nicogutis the one and only

[Jesus @jsantosaranda]

@GadiBorovich @cognition @vercel @krea_ai Lets go!! Reducing information asymmetry to ~0 - increible lo que estas haciendo por la comunidad Gadi

[Jesus @jsantosaranda]

Long Camilo

[Ethan Kho @ethanrkho]

Inside the Billionaire Backed Prediction Markets Hedge Fund. Run by a 24-Year-Old.

Camilo Saravia (@curiouscamilo), founder of BlueWalker Capital, a systematic prediction markets fund backed by Daniel Howard of Halo Capital.

"I don't want more capital. I'm extremely long our equity."

We cover:
- Why insider trading in prediction markets is terrible for liquidity and GOOD for society
- Prediction markets as cash-backed truth in a world of AI slop and disinformation
- Why he turned down the allocator question entirely, and the "Goldilocks zone" that makes a fund this size work
- His research team's actual mission statement: "collapse the entropy of the internet into signal"
- Trading Spotify streams and measuring how fast Mamdani viralizes vs Cuomo on TikTok
- Why beating earnings has almost no correlation with the stock going up, and why only testing reveals that
- Mention markets as literal next-word prediction, and how makers got sniped out
- Hiring missionaries with a mercenary work style, and why every hire takes a pay cut vs Citadel, Jane Street, Wintermute
- Daniel Howard's mandate: faster, more risk, more aggression. "They haven't backed me to print 7% APY"
- The abundance mindset, from a kid with immigrant parents sitting across from generational wealth
- A venture mindset applied to public equities: pulling the thread from free cash flow down to Glassdoor culture
- Why you never need to be binarily right: buy at 20, sell at 40, never wait for resolution

Highlights:
(00:00) Intro
(00:56) Taker vs maker, reflexive vs proactive: the strategy map
(03:08) What makes an event contract different from an equity
(04:53) Insider trading in prediction markets: bug or feature
(08:18) Cash-backed truth in a world of AI slop
(12:43) Where edge actually comes from
(14:19) The dataset: billions of records a day
(17:44) Building a money management business from an empty office
(21:34) Why asset management competes with software as a business model
(23:51) How to underwrite elite talent
(25:50) Missionaries vs mercenaries, and why the tension is the point
(30:54) Recruiting against Citadel money (and losing on salary every time)
(37:32) "We can't compromise speed": the Daniel Howard mandate
(44:45) The abundance mindset
(48:28) "Why should I invest?" / "I don't want more capital"
(50:12) Collapsing the entropy of the internet
(51:04) Spotify streams, TikTok virality, and mention markets
(53:17) The one data provider he'd long if he could
(55:49) There's a business behind everything
(01:00:07) How to find the real drivers in any market
(01:04:04) A venture mindset applied to public equities
(01:10:06) Prediction markets 101: where to actually start
(01:12:05) Why you don't need to be binarily right
(01:13:19) Final question: building personal edge against the models

[Jesus @jsantosaranda]

@pablorpalafox @eurazeo Vamos!!!

[Jesus @jsantosaranda]

@guilleflorvs 👀

[Jesus @jsantosaranda]

@albertorosasg @ycombinator Vamos!!! Menudas bestias

[Guli Moreno @GuliMoreno]

El miércoles que vienen a las 19:30 en las ofis de @shakersworks tendremos una historia brutal recién traída de Silicon Valley 🌉.

La next-gen viene pisando fuerte con @jsantosaranda y Luis.

Habrá cameo del gran @paulorf.

30 spots. Apúntate👇

[Jesus @jsantosaranda]

Overall good news to thr entertainment industry. The closer to monetizing IP / brand the better the business

Big brands always move within their supply chain to max. margins while getting rid of operational risk (SBUX, MCD)

[LindyMan @PaulSkallas]

All these clips people are making are just using old movies and movie stars.

As long as they own the IP. They'll be fine.

[Jesus @jsantosaranda]

@RufiEnLancha Cambiate ya el profile pic a Blessed

[Jesus @jsantosaranda]

A bit skeptical on whether the brands they have built are sustainable over time

Obviously Paul brothers brand is not going to last forever but is Prime brand going to hold a sustainable advantage over time just because of the marketing efforts of the early days driven by founders?

At the end of the day, social media influencers are investing their image (basically their assets) in their own brands assuming this has a greater return -or at least more durable- than selling marketing campaigns (their opp cost) and reinvesting these over time

Lets see how this ends

[Roy @im_roy_lee]

perhaps it just has not been done before.

social media and tech are usually non overlapping interests, so it makes sense why nobody has prioritized both before, but its certainly not the case that its impossible

mr beast, paul brothers, hormozi, gary vee have all built impressive companies off their media presence alone and certainly won’t be the last examples

[Jesus @jsantosaranda]

@GuliMoreno @mrloldev Cambia los labios tambien o me estoy volviendo loco

[Jesus @jsantosaranda]

@tonilopezmr Right 100%

[Jesus @jsantosaranda]

@toorobravo 🐸?

[Alex Acuña @toorobravo]

Proud PSD degree holder

[Jesus @jsantosaranda]

@elwatto Winning

[Jesus @jsantosaranda]

@curiouscamilo goat