Justin Satzman

Social Media Professional. That's right, I get paid to be on here.

[Justin Satzman @jsatz23]

Everyone told me to watch #WidowsBay. Let’s hope everyone was right.

[Justin Satzman @jsatz23]

Basketball is so much better when teams play defense

[Shaiel Ben-Ephraim @academic_la]

The reason the deal is because Trump removed upfront sanctions relief from the offer after it had been dangled. Iran can't sign without it. Nothing changed strategically in the past 24 hours to justify the hardening. The collapse is due to pressure from Israel and its supporters.

[Douglas Macgregor @DougAMacgregor]

BREAKING: Hopes of a US-Iran agreement crumble, Iran claims Washington has 'retreated' on key mutual understandings.

[Mehdi Hasan @mehdirhasan]

Re the claims circulating online about Iran having agreed to get rid of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium:

A well-placed Iranian source tells me there is “no agreement” on the “nuclear issue” and the two sides are focused on “ending the war and the crisis of Hormuz.”

[Brian Krassenstein @krassenstein]

HOLY CRAP Trump actually accomplished a miracle. Here is what he got out of Iran:

- Reduce its stockpile of enriched uranium by about 98%

- Limit uranium enrichment to 3.67% purity (far below weapons-grade)

- Cut the number of installed centrifuges by roughly two-thirds

- Only enrich uranium at one declared site (Natanz)

- Stop enrichment activities at Fordow and convert it into a research facility

- Redesign the Arak heavy-water reactor so it could not easily produce weapons-grade plutonium

- Ship out or dilute excess enriched uranium
Allow extensive inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Permit continuous monitoring of nuclear facilities and supply chains

- Accept “snap” inspections under expanded monitoring rules

- Avoid building new heavy-water reactors for years

- Stay within strict limits on uranium stockpile size and centrifuge development for set periods ranging from 10–25 years

Ooops, sorry!

That was the JCPOA that Obama signed with Iran, only to have him tear it up, kill 140 kids, get hundreds of Americans injured, 13 killed, and gas prices to surge 50%.

[Justin Satzman @jsatz23]

#ImperfectWomen was like Succession in that not one character had any redeeming qualities. Unlike Succession, there was not a single character who I rooted for, or even tolerated.

[Jesse Livermore @Jesse_Livermore]

Shaping up to be the biggest and most embarrassing geopolitical defeat in U.S. history. By a large margin.

[MeidasTouch @MeidasTouch]

Here’s what Trump did today instead of attending his son’s wedding:

[Tim Miller @Timodc]

Not enough ink spilled on how fucking stupid MBS and MBZ were to encourage Trump/Kushner bc they thought this would turn out well for them.

[Justin Satzman @jsatz23]

@yashar So… the nuclear issue, the main reason Trump said he was attacking Iran, is not even a consideration for ending the war? But to be discussed at a later date? Meanwhile Iran gets sanctions relief and the ability to sell their oil on the global market?

What a complete mess.

[Justin Satzman @jsatz23]

So… the nuclear issue, the main reason Trump said he was attacking Iran, is not even a consideration for ending the war? But to be discussed at a later date? Meanwhile Iran gets sanctions relief and the ability to sell their oil on the global market?

What a complete mess.

[Yashar Ali 🐘 @yashar]

NEWS

Axios is reporting that the U.S. and the Islamic Republic of Iran are close to signing a 60-day memorandum of understanding that could extend the ceasefire, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, ease pressure on global oil supplies, and open a new round of nuclear negotiations.

The deal is not final and could still fall apart.

But according to Axios, here is what is currently in it:

The agreement would last 60 days and could be extended by mutual consent.

During that period, the Strait of Hormuz would reopen with no tolls. Iran would agree to clear the mines it deployed in the strait so ships can pass freely again.

In exchange, the U.S. would lift its blockade on Iranian ports and issue some sanctions waivers allowing Iran to freely sell oil. A U.S. official acknowledged this would be a major economic benefit for Iran, but argued it would also bring significant relief to the global oil market.

The nuclear issues would not be resolved in this 60-day agreement. Instead, the MOU would create a negotiating period.

Iran would commit to never pursuing nuclear weapons, and the two sides would negotiate over suspending Iran’s uranium enrichment program and removing its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.

The U.S. would also negotiate over lifting sanctions and unfreezing Iranian funds during the 60-day period, but those steps would only be implemented as part of a final agreement that is verifiably carried out.

The draft MOU also reportedly says the Israel-Hezbollah war in Lebanon would end. Netanyahu raised concerns about that provision and other parts of the deal in a call with Trump.

Trump is reportedly willing to go much further in resetting relations with Iran if his nuclear demands are met.

@BarakRavid reports

Full Story: https://t.co/LSGiXSpCUD

[Justin Satzman @jsatz23]

The latest episode of #YourFriendsAndNeighbors jumped the shark. If you watch it, you’ll know exactly what I’m talking about.

[David Shuster @DavidShuster]

According to Al Jazeera, the Iran deals includes unfreezing billions in Iranian funds, lifting U.S. blockade, pulling U.S. forces away, reopening strait of Hormuz though with tolls to Iran, and allowing Iran to keep its enriched uranium. This would be a total U.S. surrender.

[Justin Satzman @jsatz23]

@nickschifrin So… a much weaker version of the JCPOA?

[Justin Satzman @jsatz23]

So… a much weaker version of the JCPOA?

[Nick Schifrin @nickschifrin]

The emerging US-Iran framework, according to a senior official from a mediating country, although the official says the exact mechanisms haven't been defined, and the unfreezing of funds and sanctions relief haven't been agreed:
-US, Israel ceasefire in Iran, Lebanon
-US lifts blockade (no stipulation on US removing any assets from CENTCOM)
-US unfreezes Iranian money, lifts sanctions
-Iran gradual reopening of the Strait
-Iran uranium enrichment freeze. 10-20 years. (Number not yet agreed. No stipulation on what Iran is or is not allowed to do after the timeframe)
-Export HEU. No final decision yet, but Iran has suggested to the IAEA.
-IAEA access to nuclear sites
-Iran pledges not to operate underground nuclear facilities

[Dan Shapiro @DanielBShapiro]

With all due caveats about a deal that has not been announced yet, some thoughts:

The US-Iran deal being described in the news is a weak deal, and the net result of this war is significant damage to US strategic interests. That said, since the war was a mistake from the beginning, we can at least be thankful it appears President Trump is moving, belatedly, to end it.

This war was ill-conceived in every respect. There were no clear strategic objectives, and no way to achieve most of the objectives mentioned at an acceptable cost.

After the Strait of Hormuz was closed, and the global economic crisis started to spread, reopening it became the most important objective.

That meant Iran had far greater leverage than we did.

So President Trump faced only terrible options, of his own making. The deal being reported is among the less terrible options he could have chosen. At least he is not choosing to escalate the war, which would cause an even greater global economic crisis.

The least terrible deal would have been a verified opening of the Strait -- and nothing else. Keep full sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program, maintain watchfulness and deterrence established in the 12-Day War last June, and try to negotiate a significant rollback of the program and intrusive inspections.

This deal is weaker than that. It reportedly provides $25 billion in unfrozen assets without receiving any concessions on the nuclear program. That money will give the regime a lifeline and help it begin restoring funding to its proxies. And there are no guarantees that Iran will make meaningful concessions on enrichment or HEU once those talks do start.

Those talks, which will likely drag on, may well take place without a credible US military threat backing them up, as the United States labors to recover from all it expended and lost in this campaign and shore up other strategic priorities (IndoPacific) that have been set back, and as US midterm elections approach.

Meanwhile, the deal says nothing about Iran's ballistic missile program or its support for proxies. Yes, US and Israeli strikes degraded, but did not eliminate, many Iranian attack capabilities. But overall, Iran has gained significant leverage for the future by demonstrating it can control the strait, by attacking its neighbors and US bases in the region and causing significant damage, and by taking the United States' and Israel's best punch and surviving with enough ability to project aggression in tact.

It's a bleak day for US strategic interests. But it's better than continuing the war and making it even worse.

Once the dust clears, one thing must not be forgotten. The Iranian people continue to live under a vicious regime. Trump has barely spoken of them in weeks. They deserve help, support, and appropriate non-military external pressures on the regime to give THEM the best chance to change it.

The Administration, which put so much faith in military power to do what it could not, should invest in Iran experts, communicators, Persian language broadcasting, transition planning, diplomacy, and more aimed at supporting the Iranian people in their quest for freedom from tyranny.

That was true in January when the Iranian people were demonstrating for their freedom. And it is still true today, despite this stupid war.

[Maine @TheMaineWonk]

Imagine starting a regime change war to end Iran’s nuclear & missile threat only to:

- Keep IRGC in power
- Give Iran control of Strait
- Unfreeze $20 BILLION in assets
- Allow Iran to keep ballistic missiles
- Allow Iran to keep uranium

It’s not a peace deal.
It’s surrender.

[Justin Satzman @jsatz23]

@mikepompeo https://t.co/a3RjoETWVH

[Michael McFaul @McFaul]

The Trump deal being floated is not even close to being as comprehensive as the JCPOA. It doesn’t include ANY restrictions on Irans nuclear program but gives the Iranian dictatorship billions.

But let’s wait and see the actual details before making final judgements.

[Justin Satzman @jsatz23]

@news_jul He also completely lied but ok