Julien

Prop Trader. Orca Traders. Mainly cryptocurrencies; we make markets on BTC and ETH options. Twitter advice: The struggle is where greatness comes from.

[Mike van Rossum @mikevanrossum]

A move that will have many long term consequences, and it will shape AI models and AI access going forward

[Julien @JSterz]

@AnthropicAI Damn.

[Julien @JSterz]

Next round number for ETH is 1000.

[Julien @JSterz]

Afaik SpaceX attempts to raise $ 75bn with their IPO. Then at just a couple of days ago Google announced a $ 84bn capital raise which is even bigger. The latter is expected to hit the tape in Q3-2026. Then there is OpenAI and Anthropic.

Just feels like there is a lot of liquidity needed for the rest of the year.

[Julien @JSterz]

@OddStockTrader Man. I will just say: What the F. $HPE

[Julien @JSterz]

@TheShortBear @JSeyff They even launch a 0DTE covered call fund. What the actual fuck.

[Julien @JSterz]

Mostly payoff plays, mostly very short term (<25 days). Mostly short puts or straddles (on some names delta long on others short), hedging and/or cutting aggressively if it doesn’t work. Active in different groups AI/physical AI and SaaS/Software. Basically what’s trending + Software.

[Julien @JSterz]

@Rewkang Looking forward to this.

[Julien @JSterz]

The fundamentals for $ETH are strong, no doubt about it. The question is whether that necessarily translates into bullish price action.

[1] If crypto was ever used universally as collateral, I’d expect much lower volatility (<10% or so). It would trade more like a stable macro asset.

[2] Historically though, crypto has been an extremely reflexive asset class with extreme boom and bust cycles. If that pattern repeats, we could see huge price moves again.

[3] Right now, the AI narrative in equities is sucking in all liquidity and attention from slower-moving assets. I think as long as this dynamic persists, crypto probably struggles to sustain major moves.

My base case is mostly rangebound price action with thin liquidity, until a decisive move forces capital and positioning to reprice again. Vols have been crushed recently, but are mainly following price action (see [3]).

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

SPACEX will be the biggest and most expensive IPO I have seen.

Retail, Pension funds and alike will be forced to buy it via the ETF inclusion which was only possible by fully changing multiple rules to create exit liquidity for an overpriced IPO.

Very sad to see this type of rule changing at the expense of all investors.

[Julien @JSterz]

@DeribitInsights That’s a great visualization. Where is that from?

[Julien @JSterz]

Not gonna lie, crypto looks terrible here. Feels like there’s barely any real bid left outside of the DATs stepping in every now and then. Capital still rotating out of crypto.

At a high level, it still seems like the market is still structurally oversupplied, i.e. too much existing market cap, consistent unlocks/emissions.

[Julien @JSterz]

Wild

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The 3x leveraged long semiconductor ETF, $SOXL, attracted a record +$1.03 billion in inflows on Tuesday.

At the same time, the 3x leveraged short semiconductor ETF, $SOXS, posted -$230 million in outflows, the largest daily outflow since late March.

Furthermore, the 3x leveraged long Nasdaq 100 ETF, $TQQQ, saw +$161 million in inflows, the highest daily intake since March 31.

In other words, $SOXL inflows were more than 6 times larger than $TQQQ inflows, as investors concentrated their bullish bets in semiconductors.

$SOXL is now up +354% since the March 30th bottom, the largest 31-day increase since the fund launched in 2010.

This comes as the semiconductor sector, $SOX, is up +68% over the same period, the 3rd-best 31-day performance on record.

The run in semiconductor stocks is truly historic.

[Ariel Hernandez @RealSimpleAriel]

If you thought Quantum was insane wait until you tell your kids about the time a 30mil revenue company which operates at a loss was up 11,353% in 13 months. $AXTI has been nothing short of wild and today sits at a fun 380% above it's 200sma.

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

Buy more bitcoin than you sell.

[Julien @JSterz]

Unironically I think this would be a healthy sign for the crypto market as a whole:

"Will likely sell some BTC specifically to fund a dividend — framed as an "inoculation" move to prove the company doesn't need to sell equity to cover obligations, killing the short thesis"

[Mason @MasonFoard]

https://t.co/rThBMPM0z3

[Julien @JSterz]

This was a good read.

[Julien @JSterz]

$AMZN, $GOOG, $META and $MSFT on the same day Wednesday certainly is one to watch.

[Flood @ThinkingUSD]

This is the biggest week.

[Julien @JSterz]

@WhiteHouse Looks like market is ripe for a pullback.