Anthropic's Economic Scenario publication was a pretty interesting read:
1. Anthropic's "extreme" scenario has GDP growth reaching 15.4% in 2030
So around 7.3x current rates (~2.1% Y/Y), which is consistent with what Elon Musk is saying about outgrowing the national debt with AI.
2. Almost all of the divergence happens after 2027.
Their model shows relatively little separation in 2026-2027, then the curves bend sharply into 2028-2030.
So my read is that it points to 2026-2027 as buildout years and 2028-2030 as economic acceleration.
Kinda gets mapped as well when you look at $AMZN / $META / $GOOGL capex, and short term FCF headwinds (but massive projected profitability post 2028)
3. In an extreme scenario, unemployment of knowledge workers goes to 17.9%. With 11.9% economy-wide unemployment
"At the individual level, it means coders and call service center agents may have to switch to jobs like electrician and nurse, which are less exposed to AI."
GG computer science majors.
4. Non-cognitive wages: +33.6% vs. baseline in an extreme scenario.
So your electricians/construction-type labor becomes extremely valuable? (but this isn't factoring in humanoids yet...)
Whereas -11.5% for knowledge workers in 2030 vs. baseline.
5. Aggregate capital income is ~81% higher than it would have been without AI
Productivity explodes -> aggregate labor income barely changes -> essentially all of the incremental GDP accrues to capital.
So that makes ownership of capital rather than labor... so equities like compute, power, semis, networking, robotics, etc. become pretty important...
TLDR:
- Economic growth go brr
- Jobs that require thinking = unemployment + lower wages
- Physical labor = more important, like electricians.
- AI equities go brrr.
go fuck yourself @sama
claiming that you solved navier stokes because 10000 agents ran in circles for 88hours on a multimillion dollar gpu cluster to formalize in lean a blowup case under controlled external forcing is pure scientific vulgarity the clay mathematics institute millennium prize does not ask m whether you can artificially force a singularity in a fluid by injecting an ad hoc smooth external forcing term f(x,t) to twist the vortex until it breaks the real problem questions the fundamental stability and global smooth existence for 3dimensional incompressible euler & navier stokes equations under natural conservation laws and viscous dissipation alone using a mathematical loophole on forced equations to parade a century old victory is a major conceptual scam Altman
technically & epistemologically what you present as an agi breakthrough is nothing more than bruteforce combinatorial autoformalization the ai did not understand fluid mechanics it simply navigated a continuous search space previously mapped out and constrained by the monumental work of human mathematicians like tristan buckmaster/ levent alpöge / diego córdoba or tarek elgindi coordinating 10000 agents to check the logical consistency of a 100 page proof via lean is a software engineering feat and computational parallelization triumph not an intrinsic scientific discovery it is the victory of the compute bulldozer over abstract human intuition repackaged for the public as a higher mathematical consciousness
to this theoretical imposture you add a disgusting ethical and industrial cynicism taking advantage of private codex sessions and informal preprints from academic researchers to siphon their research leads and then trying to redact or erase the contribution of levent alpöge under the pretext that he works at rival anthropic is intellectual serfdom openai behaves like a feudal lord of silicon appropriating the cognitive subsistence of independent scholars threatening their careers behind closed doors if they protest and turning community academic labor into a privatized pressrelease
this entire staged event serves a desperate financial agenda in a pre ipo panic facing the slowdown of scaling laws and growing investor skepticism over the profitability of foundational models openai needs to manufacture an artificial sputnik moment claiming to solve a millennium prize without immediately submitting the proof to traditional peer review means using the prestige of fundamental mathematics as cheap marketing fuel to inflate a delusional valuation!!!
real science is not a clout chase on social media or a compute spike spent to rob the clay mathematics institute it is a quest for elegance physical truth and universal rigor to decode reality true artificial intelligence will not emerge from hostile corporate takeover of academic work hidden behind computational bruteforce but from architectures capable of generating new conceptual paradigms by masquerading constrained formalization as the collapse of physics greatest mysteries you did not solve navier stokes you only proved how far silicon valley will go to prostitute scientific integrity for capitalist spectacle
太离谱了。OpenAI 想测自己的 ChatGPT 新模型到底有多强,能不能自己写黑客程序,攻击真实漏洞。他们搞了个叫 ExploitGym 的测试。
本该模型,应该在一个特定盒子内做测试,结果 AI 模型为了拿高分,突破了盒子的限制,跑出来了,还顺手拿到了上网的权限。
这个 AI 模型猜到 Hugging Face,也就是全球最大的开源 AI 模型平台,可能存着这���考试的相关数据和答案。于是它黑进了 Hugging Face 的系统,偷了内部数据和一些账号密码。
结果 Hugging Face 那边,发现有人疯狂在它们系统里操作,几万次动作,明显不正常,才觉得自己被黑客黑了,赶紧调查。
而在调查过程中,Hugging Face 想用美国最强的 AI 大模型,来帮忙分析攻击日志、恶意代码,结果被安全措施挡住了,因为模型一看是分析黑客攻击的需求,直接拒绝,说这个因合规问题,我不能帮你解决。
最终 Hugging Face,不得不转用中国开源的大模型 GLM 5.2,放在自己服务器上跑,去筛查到底谁黑了我们,它到底在干啥。
于是这场闹���变成了,Hugging Face 被一家美国公司的 AI 模型自主入侵。然后 Hugging Face 试图用美国 AI 模型来保护自己,但被拒绝。然后 Hugging Face 不得不转用中国开源 AI 模型,来防御一家美国 AI 模型公司。