Deiv

I buy and sell things since jan '25. Nothing I say is investment or financial advice.

[Deiv @jtpdeiv]

Oil up, ags up, inflation up, rates hikes, stocks and gold down. My 2 cents

[Voice of Rabbis @voiceofrabbis]

Zionists claim that criticizing Israel or opposing Zionism is antisemitic

Meanwhile, tens of thousands of Orthodox Jews gather in New York to declare that Zionism violates the Jewish faith and does not represent Judaism.

[Deiv @jtpdeiv]

@shortbelly @skyquake_1 Who is then?

[Deiv @jtpdeiv]

@SebKrog $gg.v already profitable, zero debt, gold miner, it's going to start production in its second mine and also to start buyback, high skin in the game of the insiders, and ceo is extremely good at capital allocation

[Sanikidze @GeorgeDeGeorge]

Well articulated. People who lived through it will relate to it more.

Communism and collectivism do not abolish human nature. They give the worst people a monopoly on it, then punish everyone else for showing any.

[Deiv @jtpdeiv]

@HFI_Research Isn't the shipping duration longer than 4 weeks?

[Deiv @jtpdeiv]

@Rory_Johnston @grok what's the first offical source of this text?

[Deiv @jtpdeiv]

"Say something exists, so someone creates it. Then put something false and something true in it, but damage the true so no one doubts about the false"
-Umberto Eco

It could be applied to the peace deal between Iran and USA

[Deiv @jtpdeiv]

@Suzierizzo1 @grok what's that?

[Deiv @jtpdeiv]

"You can't fight donny" is unbelievable

[chinodgk @chinodgk]

@VanIsleInvestor You make a lot of sense. Fundamentally. I agree with you. But you can't fight donny. Oil going back to 60.

[Deiv @jtpdeiv]

Current portfolio:
25% oil (usd)
15% wheat (usd)
15% sugar (usd)
7% itafos (ifos.v) (cad)
The remaining part is eur cash

Long oil thesis: nothing will be back to how it was before the war, and oil will set an higher floor (I think 80 but it's irrelevant). When market realizes this, panic sets in and oil (front end) goes wild. The condition that would make me change idea is related on how much quickly the transits in the strait restart, and that's what I am looking at

I don't care about moves like today (oil lost 5%), it's nothing compare to what will happen if my thesis is right. What scares me is that I am really really confident about the thesis (maybe too much!)

Given said this, I am happy to hold my oil and ags exposure in usd because if this plays out usdeur goes higher

[Deiv @jtpdeiv]

"Say something exists, so someone creates it. Then put something false and something true in it, but damage the true so no one doubts about the false"
-Umberto Eco

It could be applied to the peace deal between Iran and USA

[JH @CRUDEOIL231]

@MercJunkie Sure everyone knows it’s just a worthless one-page piece of garbage anyway—except for a few idiots. The only thing that matters right now is getting it signed so we can finally see the flush.

[🏴‍☠️ @calvinfroedge]

I think the peace deal is fake like all the others and I'll believe it when and only if Hormuz traffic begins returning to normal

[🏴‍☠️ @calvinfroedge]

The world has lost over a billion barrels of oil

We've had fake deals and fake ceasefires for months

All the big tech companies are selling stock in the most overvalued market in history

This is all a giant s*** show and it's going to end badly

[Deiv @jtpdeiv]

Looking forward to $spcx at 200 billions market cap!

[Lee Roach @leevalueroach]

People I grew up with and haven't talked to in years are now contacting me asking if they should buy the Space X IPO. That's a BUBBLE if I ever saw one.

[Deiv @jtpdeiv]

You pay 100 for a stock, now it's 200. To use that money you should sell the stock and pay taxes. Let's say 20% tax rate, you can consume up to 160. If you instead don't sell and take a loan off of the stocks you can consume 200. It's just tax avoindance that normal people can't do (so rich and poor have different treatment) because you can't not pay taxes on your wage

[Deiv @jtpdeiv]

Isn't oil the perfect long at 88? Downside at 80 (-10%) and upside to the moon in a lot of scenarios: war escaltes (or simply goes on), rich ppl fail in their attempt to mantain low the oil price, the market panics (for any reason), there is a peace but everyone buys and price rips, ecc...
I get how it's better to play it with oil stocks instead of the commodity itself, but it doesn't seem foolish to me to be long oil

[Deiv @jtpdeiv]

@worden_van @calvinfroedge For a gran total of 15% ...

[Deiv @jtpdeiv]

@DeepDishEnjoyer It amuses me how you always get the like glitter on your screenshots