John Treble (J3) 🇨🇦🇺🇦

Bus./Fin./Eco. account. Equities | Derivatives | Synthetics | Macro. Not financial advice. I tweet in a personal capacity.

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

Since 2022, Greece has: (i) successfully undermined the G7 oil price cap on Russia; (ii) blocked a ban of oil tanker sales to the shadow fleet; (iii) stopped a ban on Western tankers transporting Russian oil. This morning's live stream on all this is here:
https://t.co/KvqfjZ1MD4

[John Treble (J3) 🇨🇦🇺🇦 @jtreble_deriv]

@sopitas Leandro “Mental Health Issues” Paredes.

Surprise!

Lol, 😂.

[John Treble (J3) 🇨🇦🇺🇦 @jtreble_deriv]

@ChairmansLedger @jiahanjimliu Lol, 👍.

[John Treble (J3) 🇨🇦🇺🇦 @jtreble_deriv]

@Zlatko31311 @garyblack00 “Valuing SPCX is a silly exercise!”

🤡

[Michael Pettis @michaelxpettis]

FT: "German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron on Friday said that Beijing’s widening trade surplus with the EU — along with what they described as a deeply undervalued renminbi — posed an existential threat to European manufacturing."
https://t.co/EiWglGEjIr

[Seppo Ilvessalo 🇫🇮🏴‍☠️🇺🇦 @SeppoIlvessalo]

Hello Greeks. Are you proud of helping Russia to destroy Ukraine and to kill its citizens?

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

In the near term, oil is going back to $100. That's a modest rise and doesn't mean we're going to $150 or $200 despite the drawdown in inventories. That's because the price elasticity of demand puts the peak for oil around $125 if the SoH shuts entirely...
https://t.co/l1wL5ru8sf

[John Treble (J3) 🇨🇦🇺🇦 @jtreble_deriv]

@moinvests28 $ASTS my 2 cents

Ticker | Forward P/E (NTM) | Forward PEG (NTM) | EV / EBITDA | Price / Sales (P/S) | FCF Yield | Valuation Classification

ASTS | Negative (Overvalued) | Negative (Overvalued) | Negative (Overvalued) | 126.9x (Overvalued) | Negative (Overvalued) | Overvalued

👎

[Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en]

"It's not just a security issue - it's also a moral issue. While Ukrainians are dying, Russians are spending their holidays in Europe. " - Estonian Interior Minister Igor Taro called on EU countries to tighten their visa policy toward Russian citizens.

"A very troubling sign is that the number of visas issued to Russians in Europe is growing, which is ridiculous. Because it's not just a security issue - it's also a moral issue.

While Ukrainians are dying, Russians are spending their holidays in Europe. It's just not logical at all. The non-binding measures have produced non-binding results, and it just can't continue like this.

I think there should be a ban on tourist visas for Russians, at least for as long as this war continues, because Russians are traveling as if nothing has happened.

And that's exactly what the Kremlin wants Russians to believe: 'It's okay, it's just a small special operation, it's not a big deal, and we can carry on with business as usual.'

So we have to squeeze Russia really hard."

[Ryan Hass @ryanl_hass]

A decade ago, the US would have been convening countries to set up an international body for standard-setting around development of AI. Now, China is taking the initiative to fill that role and leaders are showing up to be part of it.

https://t.co/JRDHCvavqD via @NYTimes

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

I wrote a Q&A on the latest iteration of the US blockade on Iran. The widespread negativity on the blockade isn't justified. Iran's imports collapsed already in March and the blockade will have made this much worse. Acute shortages and hyperinflation...
https://t.co/Svv2kOC18k

[Jonathan Cheng @JChengWSJ]

Washington Post op-ed: “China aims to overtake the United States in biopharma by running the same playbook it has employed in other sectors: a coordinated, state-led strategy that combines subsidies with scale and speed.”
https://t.co/Aeook5bHEk

[Athanasios Grammenos, PhD @athagram]

Αυτός ο διασυρμός για την Ουκρανία 🇺🇦 είναι πρωτοφανής στη διπλωματική μας ιστορία. Η 🇬🇷 κυβέρνηση αυτοαναιρείται παρά τις προωθημένες αντί-ρωσικές 🇷🇺 θέσεις του παρελθόντος.
Το πολιτικό μας κεφάλαιο εξανεμίζεται και θα το πληρώσουμε (σύντομα;) στα ελληνοτουρκικά.

[John Treble (J3) 🇨🇦🇺🇦 @jtreble_deriv]

@michaelxpettis “The real drivers of this stagnation are deeply structural: weak income expectations, a rush to deleverage and an inadequate social safety net that forces households into defensive saving.”

👀

[Michael Pettis @michaelxpettis]

Shenwan Hongyuan's Zhao Wei: "Weak income expectations, deleveraging and poor social protections are not isolated phenomena. They all stem from a fragile employment market. The structural vulnerabilities in China’s labor market directly suppress wage growth and exacerbate the need for defensive savings."

We are seeing an increasing number of analysts arguing publicly that wage suppression has been the structural reason for China's weak consumption growth which, in turn, leads to the economic fragility that further pushes up household saving.
https://t.co/L2K9V8oZER

[Sander Tordoir @SanderTordoir]

Merz and Macron want an EU response to China's surging exports.

The EU can build a two stage trade defence rocket to respond to Chinas macro distortions.

Safeguards on whole product groups - as suggested by the German machine builders - followed by an EU 301 case.

1/

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

Greek-owned oil tankers export around 25% of oil out of all Russian ports. That's why the Greek government has consistently tried to undermine a tightening of the EU's maritime sanctions on Russia. This goes back to 2022 and unfortunately is nothing new...
https://t.co/VQ0Rc8JOFo

[John Treble (J3) 🇨🇦🇺🇦 @jtreble_deriv]

@SicilianoSum @jalle51 You’re losing Vladimir.

Cope.

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[Brad Setser @Brad_Setser]

The Economist's story about China's trade gap -- based on work by Adam Wolfe -- is in my view misleading. Import prices increased by more than export prices; the real trade surplus is still expanding (see the net export contribution in q1/q2)

1/

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🇬🇷🇪🇺 The entire EU wants to punish Russia and one Greek billionaire won't let them.

Greece is single-handedly freezing the new sanctions package, demanding a carve-out from the 2027 Russian LNG ban so its tankers can keep shipping Moscow's gas straight to China.

Why is Athens burning political capital over this? Follow the ships.

It all traces back to Dynagas, owned by billionaire George Prokopiou, whose fleet of Arctic icebreakers is locked into Russia's Yamal gas project. The day that ban hits, those specialized ships turn into floating scrap metal.

So Athens is quietly going to war for one man's fleet, and the rest of the bloc is fuming. One EU diplomat summed up the mood in a single word: "shameless."

And here's the part that stings the most. While Brussels sits stuck in this fight, the deadlock has also stalled the Russian oil price cap review, handing Putin the exact windfall these sanctions were built to choke off.

Source: Euronews / Writer: Daniyal