jtronnes

CDN in USA. Go Oilers!

[jtronnes @jtronnes]

@shadihamid Facts.

[jtronnes @jtronnes]

Made it home from Ottawa just prior to the flight stoppage.
Stay safe, everyone.

[The FAA ✈️ @FAANews]

There has been a temporary telecommunications outage - out of an abundance of caution all flights have been halted. Every flight has been accounted for and international flights will be handled on a case by case basis.

[jtronnes @jtronnes]

Reminder that some Republicans, are in fact, Republican.

[Rep. Don Bacon 🇺🇸✈️🏍️⭐️🎖️ @RepDonBacon]

GOP has opposed global tariffs since WW2. It’s a tax on American consumers and it’s bad economics. It is one thing to target a country with unfair trade practices, but global tariffs are another. Congress must reclaim 100% of its Article One trade authorities.

https://t.co/mRyHKTHwtI

[Dublin Airport @DublinAirport]

We’re not saying we have a favourite plane. But if we did…

This Royal Canadian Air Force CC-330 Husky drew a lot of admiring glances on our airfield this week! 😍 ✈️ 🇨🇦

[jtronnes @jtronnes]

Karen woke up today and chose violence, and I’m here for it.

A banger of an op-ed indeed.

[Heather Exner-Pirot @ExnerPirot]

A banger from my colleague @karenrestoule: AFN chief doesn’t speak for us. Indigenous Canadians support resource development

A new Postmedia/Leger poll shows that 63% of Indigenous individuals polled support Prime Minister Mark Carney’s plan to significantly increase the development of Canada’s natural resources. Further, 51 per cent of those surveyed are confident that Indigenous perspectives will be considered when major projects listed as part of the new Building Canada Strong Act are undertaken.

https://t.co/W39EfMKTMN

[jtronnes @jtronnes]

A good reminder that things can always get worse before they get better…

[Peter Harrell @petereharrell]

While Washington focuses on the incoming Democratic Congress, the Trump Administration has *many* pending trade actions, and the next few months could prove quite active for Trump trade policy. Let’s unpack:

1. Background: Trump, despite tough rhetoric, clearly moderated his tariff policy in advance of the midterms. The average statutory tariff rate fell from about 16% in fall 2025 to about 11% today, largely because Trump did not fully re-create the former IEEPA tariffs and quietly delayed various threatened actions. The question now is which pending actions will he advance now that the elections are over....

2. Industrial overcapacity Section 301: USTR reportedly has a near-final report for the “industrial overcapacity” Section 301 it launched in March against 16 major trade partners. We should see the report—and proposed tariffs—within 1-3 months (the statutory deadline is March 11). Key questions: (a) does USTR fully “top up” the current July 24 301 rates (10% or 12.5%) to the old IEEPA rates (generally 15%-20%), or keep total rates lower; (b) can countries that pledge to cooperate with the US on overcapacity get delayed/reduced rates; and (c) does USTR modify the report in any way in light of ongoing lawsuits against the current 301 tariffs?

3. Other pending/possible 301s: There are pending 301s on Vietnam’s (lack of) IP protections and on Germany’s (too low) drug pricing, with the Germany 301 a potential model to press other countries to raise drug prices next year. If USTR’s talks break down, I expect USTR will propose tariffs; the product mix will be interesting. USTR and Trump have also threatened 301s investigations on DSTs ad tech regulations, which I expect USTR to follow-thru on if the EU, Canada, etc. in fact move forward with digital measures next year.

4. Proposed/planned Section 232 actions: Pending actions including Jan. 1 tariff hikes on upholstered furniture and kitchen cabinets/vanities; proposed new “steel derivatives” (incl. brass instruments); and Trump’s threat to hike tariffs on Canadian cars/parts to 50% on Jan. 1, absent a deal. Polysilicon tariffs take effect Dec. 4, and 232 investigations on PPE/medical products and coal remain open. Key questions include whether any deadlines get pushed, and whether corporate onshoring deals yield exemptions.

5. Semiconductor 232: Economically, the long-threatened tariffs on semiconductors/electronics are the largest outstanding Section 232 action. But after more than a year of talk, I no longer predict timing…

6. China: Several China-focused actions are pending, including a 301 on mature node semiconductors (tariffs slated to start in June 2027) and suspended port fees on Chinese-owned/built ships. All appear to be on the table in US-China talks (the “truce” runs to Jan. 10, and Trump and Xi will meet at APEC next week). My bet is that we’ll see a deal that largely restores China tariffs to the former IEEPA rates (about 20%), with open questions on product coverage.

[jtronnes @jtronnes]

The same goes for Canadian businesses.
A trade deal on the 232s is badly needed.

[Governor Gretchen Whitmer @GovWhitmer]

Michigan businesses don’t need another vague promise that a Canada trade deal is “close.” They need certainty.

With tariffs still hanging over autos, steel, and manufacturing, our $80 billion relationship with Canada—and Michigan jobs—can’t be left in limbo.

[Ron Nehring @RonNehring]

I just bought a $1999 refrigerator.

It would have been about $1649 if not for the federal tariffs tax which I (not “South Korea”) paid.

I also paid $155 in sales tax.

Total cost $2154. Of which 25% is tariff tax and sales tax.

To pay for it, I had to earn $3,420 in gross salary, of which $1266 went to fed and state taxes.

So for $3,420 in labor I got a refrigerator worth $1,649 (48%).

52% went to the government in taxes.

[jtronnes @jtronnes]

Canada and the US will always need to work together on issues of shared security. Great work to everyone involved in keeping North America safe.

[U.S. Embassy Ottawa @usembassyottawa]

The United States coordinated this action closely with Canada, including Canada’s financial intelligence unit, FINTRAC. It reflects our shared commitment to protecting the North American financial system from abuse. Several of the designated businesses also laundered proceeds from drug trafficking, which shows how the same illicit networks serve both Iran and criminal organizations that threaten the safety of our communities. We will keep working with Canada and other international partners to expose these networks, shut them down, and make sure no country becomes a refuge for people who finance terrorism and evade sanctions.

https://t.co/7F0dPIFA9S

[jtronnes @jtronnes]

Voters: just be normal.
Republicans: The new Chief of Staff is Stephen Miller.
Voters: 🙄

[Akash Chougule @AkashJC]

NEW POLLING from Narrative Strategies: a HUGE “narrative violation” for the MAGA/national conservative/“new right” crowd:

Republican voters overwhelmingly prefer the future of the GOP focus on “lowering costs and strengthening the economy” (49%). Way ahead of:

Stronger immigration enforcement/border security (17%)
America first trade agenda incl. tariffs (13%)
Taking on political cultural institutions (6%)
Taking a more confrontational approach to the national news media (3%)

In short, Republican voters want Republican leaders to be normal. When the party’s perception driven from the top is the opposite, the result looks like Tuesday.

[jtronnes @jtronnes]

@Alex_Panetta I’m going out on a limb here, but I think they will find the numbers.

[The Wall Street Journal @WSJ]

Exclusive: Democrats want to repeal President Trump’s tariffs on Canada as a first step in a rollback of his administration’s tariff agenda https://t.co/giiVaoU7Ba

[jtronnes @jtronnes]

“Throughout the election cycle, Democrats spent more than $58 million on ads criticizing tariffs. Republicans, by contrast, spent zero money on ads mentioning the policy”

[Dan McLaughlin @baseballcrank]

The @NRO Editorial: Repeal the Tariffs https://t.co/sIWs69hySj

[Pat Toomey (US Sen. ret.) @SenToomey]

Vice President Vance is mistaken.  The reason we Republicans lost yesterday is not just the war in Iran.  Yes, the resulting higher fuel prices contributed to the inflation that infuriated Americans who were promised lower prices by this administration.  But the war is not the only cause.  Arbitrary and capricious tariffs directly raised costs for all American consumers.  Lower income Americans can least afford them. Many voted for Democrats yesterday.

Tariffs should be a central part, but only part, of the “honest conversation” VP Vance wants Republicans to have about the future of our party.  For instance, we all seem to oppose government-owned grocery stores.  But are we ok with government ownership of semiconductors companies and rare earth miners?  We oppose rent controls.  But do we support price controls on medicines and credit cards?

The bigger question is does the Republican party now agree with the left that we need a large, powerful central government to run the economy, allocate capital and control prices? Or, do we believe that free men and women should be able to engage in commerce as they see fit and that a free enterprise system will create a higher standard of living and the greatest opportunities for the most people as it always has?
Let’s have an “honest conversation.”

[jtronnes @jtronnes]

Democrats campaigned - and won - on getting rid of tariffs.
The shellacking from the midterms means we may see bipartisan support to repeal Presidential tariff authorities.
A girl can dream.

[𝙱𝚛𝚢𝚊𝚗 𝚁𝚒𝚕𝚎𝚢 🗽🇺🇸 @FreeTradeBryan]

A summary of Democrats' winning messages on tariffs.

[Kimberley Strassel @KimStrassel]

This is a total hoot.
About the only thing it gets correct is that 2024 Trump voters were "pissed." As the polls spell out, very clearly, they were angry about tariffs--a word weirdly not found in this post, but which exit polls showed 65% of voters dislike. There's a straight line between those punishing costs and Senate losses in Kansas, Iowa, Ohio (farm areas) and beyond.
Angry the WH instead spent this past year talking about ballrooms and the Kennedy center. Frustrated by the complete absence of a next-two-year agenda (85% are concerned by healthcare costs. Where is the GOP plan?)
They are also unhappy about the war, though the numbers might be different if the president been clear about an exit strategy. And not sure where the "smartest" (and most anonymous) pollster in the world got the Israel argument. Exit polls show that of the 51% of voters who said our support for Israel was "too strong," only 19% of even that subset of respondents were Republican. The vast majority of GOP voters said our support for Israel was "just right" or "not strong enough."
Amusing to claim the problem here was traditional conservatives, as they were sidelined. Tillis was run out of the party, dooming NC. As was Cornyn. The WH had a pure expression of its second-term Trump/Vance agenda and loyalty in its chosen candidate of Ken Paxton. That would be the smoking carcass sitting on a 12-point loss in. . . Texas of all places. Meanwhile, who exactly is even talking about "asylum"? That's just a smear-y effort to preemptively shut down valid criticism.
The GOP strength has always been in its coalition--free-marketers, defense hawks, cultural conservatives. Trump's first-term success came from largely following that Reagan playbook. The second-term leaned into me-too progressive populism--at the veep's urging--and it ain't working.
The weird thing is that the veep remains more obsessed with remaking the party than with winning. Winning will require a lot better understanding of what happened yesterday than what is on offer in this alternate-universe view.

[Scott Lincicome @scottlincicome]

American voters' top issues were affordability, corruption, Iran, and Trump.

Tariffs are connected to 1, 2, and 4.

This ain't difficult, folks.

[jtronnes @jtronnes]

This 👇

[Kate Andrews @KateAndrs]

Whisper it...

@PostOpinions

[Scott Lincicome @scottlincicome]

Just wait'll next week.

[Stephen Taylor @stephen_taylor]

End the Trade War. Let’s get back to business.