Co-founder of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, a global macroeconomic research firm (@MI2Partners). | Creator of MacroCapture, a platform for savvy investors.
While some investors hailed Saylor as a visionary, my view was that he was a snake oil salesman. Well, price is proving to be the arbitrator. #MSTR has crashed through its trendline, and with #Bitcoin falling, it's tough to pick a target. My guess is $50. 1.2 x #XBT at $40k.
Strategy #MSTR used to trade at a 1.2x premium to #XBT but accelerated to an insane 5x late last year. It is now threatening the trendline that held that whole move. So if it breaks, it could threaten the entire post-election crypto euphoria.
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I smell a rat. Why does #SamAltman#openapi need the taxpayer to guarantee their debt if they are going to make hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars? Has he just done a cash analysis and realised he's cash flow short?
I smell a rat. Why does #SamAltman#openapi need the taxpayer to guarantee their debt if they are going to make hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars? Has he just done a cash analysis and realised he's cash flow short?
Strategy #MSTR used to trade at a 1.2x premium to #XBT but accelerated to an insane 5x late last year. It is now threatening the trendline that held that whole move. So if it breaks, it could threaten the entire post-election crypto euphoria.
I said in Dec that I don't believe in the strategy, but "in the mid to low $200s #Microstrategy#MSTR might be worth a punt". But it is too expensive vs #Bitcoin. At the current #XBT price, if the ratio returned to its long-run average, MSTR should be $100 not $260.
We are constantly bombarded by headlines like "S&P reaches its 28th record high". But it's all spin and cheerleading by a myopically focused US media and investment industry. As this Bloomberg story highlights, US stocks are underperforming, and Exceptionalism is over.
In the snippet below, a Bloomberg editorial builds on my original comment, highlighting how US "Exceptionalism Is Mediocre at Best". Bottom line: ignore the hype and focus on the importance of the dollar in driving the performance of your portfolio.
New Excess Returns with @JulianMI2
☑️ The case for the end of US dominance
☑️ Why inflation could spike again
☑️ The importance of price confirmation
☑️ What history tells us about soft landings
☑️ A lot more
https://t.co/1SOO51SDZA
In March, when we recommended buying GDX, the gold miner ETF, one reason was the possibility of capital rotation away from US tech. After a 75% rally, it has been a good trade. But, big picture, I think we can go to 2011 levels, so the capital reallocation has barely started.