Julianlxx

思考人生，重新出发

[Julianlxx @JunleiL]

Which is basically Capitalism. Good luck of going that rout and we know how it ends

[Julianlxx @JunleiL]

I came from China but I believe in Capitalism, Why? Look at our other socialism alliance Russia, Cuba, North Korea , they are broken as hell, China is the only outlier because we have Chinese Style Socialism = we embrace open trade, free market, brace foreign investment

[Julianlxx @JunleiL]

Lol

[Bryan Johnson @bryan_johnson]

never waste a good crisis

[Julianlxx @JunleiL]

@jimcramer Ironically as the core concept of Bitcoin is decentralization can be murderred by a signal man

[Julianlxx @JunleiL]

@Jason There are very few moments when Jcal can be in the same place as the other three people

[Chamath Palihapitiya @chamath]

Incredibly interesting take from @bgurley

[Julianlxx @JunleiL]

CEO of a company worth over 5 trillion is trying to sell each one of their product with their own earns my highest respect

[@jason @Jason]

Never stop selling

[Julianlxx @JunleiL]

Biggest beneficiary: China Open Source Community

[Global Insight Journal @GlobalIJournal]

🇨🇳 Professor Jiang — the man nicknamed “The Professor” because he is truly one of the most dangerous geopolitical minds in the world — revealed to Tucker Carlson words you will not hear anywhere else:

Iran’s war is an American quagmire with no bottom… China is the biggest long-term loser… and the UAE will be affected in a way no one expected.

This man is not an ordinary analyst. He predicted Trump’s victory years ago — and he won. He predicted America entering a war with Iran — and it did. And today, he speaks about the future with the same confidence.

1. Iran War = Second Ukraine
The war will be long and exhausting. No side will admit defeat.
America is stuck between two bad options: withdrawal = collapse of prestige… continuation = endless bleeding.
My view: this is exactly what happened in Ukraine. Americans have no exit strategy, only an entry strategy.

2. Why can’t America exit?
Iran will demand $1 trillion in compensation + complete US withdrawal from the region.
If America withdraws:

Gulf states will become clients of Iran.

Petrodollar will collapse.

America — with $39 trillion in debt — will face a real economic collapse.
The point no one talks about: America is not fighting for Iran… it is fighting so it does not collapse itself.

3. Iran’s smart plan — $800 billion per year
Iran plans to impose a 10% passage fee on every ship crossing the Strait of Hormuz.
Expected revenue: $800 billion per year.
This amount will rebuild Iran stronger than before.
If this is correct — and I see it as not far-fetched — Iran will emerge from the war richer than it entered.

4. The biggest loser is not America — but China
China imports 40% of its energy from the Gulf.
Its economy is entirely built on cheap energy.
Even artificial intelligence — which everyone talks about — requires cheap energy.
Any disruption in energy supplies will hit China more than any other country.
And what no one notices: the war in Iran is not just an American war — it is a war on China’s future as a great power.

5. The real beneficiaries? Israel and Russia
Israel:

Wants “Greater Israel” from the Nile to the Euphrates.

Draining America in a long war = pushing it out of the region.

Weakening the Gulf = removing any competitor.
Russia:

America lifted sanctions on Russian oil (130 million barrels).

Russia sells its oil at record prices.

And finances its war in Ukraine from America’s pocket.
In short: America is paying for others’ wars while thinking it is winning.

6. The religious factor — the hidden power no one talks about
There are religious factions in Israel and America that genuinely believe this war is a prelude to the return of Christ.
Blowing up Al-Aqsa Mosque and building the Third Temple is part of the plan.
Netanyahu and Trump — according to Professor Jiang — are just tools in a project far older than them.
This is one of the most dangerous statements in the episode, because when political decisions are driven by end-of-the-world ideology — there is no room for rationality.

7. The ground invasion is coming — a new Vietnam
America is considering sending 2,000 Marines to control Kharg Island (90% of Iranian oil exports).
But Professor Jiang said clearly: “You can take it, but you cannot hold it.”
What begins with 2,000 soldiers could end with half a million — just like in Vietnam.

8. Weakening the UAE — the bubble is about to burst
Dubai was built on the illusion of security.
Simple Iranian strikes revealed the model’s fragility entirely.
What was a “safe haven” became a target. And the confidence upon which all those towers were built is eroding.
The UAE will not “end” — but its economic model will be severely shaken, because everything is based on the assumption of regional security — and that assumption has collapsed.

9. Japan will recover — and China will decline
Professor Jiang literally said: “If I had a billion dollars — I would put it all in Japan.”
Japan has historically risen from anything: the Mongols, World War II, nuclear bombs.
China, however: agricultural, closed, and unable to adapt to the new era.

10. The West is collapsing from within
Europe, Canada, and Australia are experiencing deliberate demographic change.
The “democracy” that emerges looks more like the “organized demolition” of Western civilization.
And the question: who is driving this? No one has a clear answer.

Conclusion
What Professor Jiang said tonight:
America is stuck in a quagmire it cannot escape.
Iran will return stronger after the war.
Israel achieves its expansionist dream.
China will be the biggest loser.
And the West destroys itself.

The remaining question:
If Professor Jiang predicted Trump’s victory and the start of the war — and he was correct…
Will his predictions today come true?

[Julianlxx @JunleiL]

@SawyerMerritt Didn’t see the feature that I care the most about: More Lightweight

[Julianlxx @JunleiL]

@CryptoApprenti1 BTC 已经成了朝廷的一条狗

[Julianlxx @JunleiL]

今年在AI的冲击下，二级市场Saas 公司价格遭遇了大幅下跌，PE 从2/30 跌倒目前的十几，直接导致了软件行业的重新估价定价

其中黑石的portfolio中超过30%是投入在软件saas行业，导致了投资人恐慌而进而进行挤兑

查了gpt，Citrix、Zendesk、Coupa Software、Avalara、Anaplan 都是高杠杆的高危公司

[Julianlxx @JunleiL]

一句话说清为什么黑石遭挤兑

伏笔来自于08年金融危机以后，银行加强监管空出了一大片private credit的市场，让黑石这样的巨头成了新一代的影子银行，加上过去十几年的软件科技行业蓬勃发展，涌入了以黑石资管为代表的大量热钱，他们一手借钱给客户，一手替客户重组上市套现，吃得盆满钵满

[Julianlxx @JunleiL]

@ilex_ulmus @AnthropicAI @grok why the model would suggest elementary school as target

[Julianlxx @JunleiL]

@saylor It’s ironic that you’ve become the largest Bitcoin signal owner besides Satoshi. You’re becoming the central figure of a decentralized system

[Julianlxx @JunleiL]

@FuSheng_0306 报业应该私有化，做成个小而美的生意

[Julianlxx @JunleiL]

@BTCdayu @grok fact check

[Julianlxx @JunleiL]

@DrewPavlou Give me a break, did she kill anyone? I don’t care if her self identity is Chinese or American or cat, she is a great skier that’s it

[Julianlxx @JunleiL]

@Kenntnis22 一股臭孔孟味，两个二十多岁的小姑娘达到了大部分的人一辈子都达不到的高度，非要那扒人家裤衩，找一些道德优越感，每个人追求的东西不一样而已

[Julianlxx @JunleiL]

@heyibinance @silverfang88 虽然有几点观点还是挺有意思的，但是作为全世界最大交易所的员工公开说币圈无长期价值，BTC是由庄家控制的，不管真实与否都是低情商行为，一姐的澄清等于打脸了