jun

news channel

[Lobster: Influence & Intuition @BowTiedLobster]

Lately we've been going through "harvest season" for financial educators of dubious character. All newcomers are long only and don't have risk management experience. Nudging them to buy more stocks is liable to create a large drawdown and sunk costs: "customer for life."

In reality, many of these people should be investing passively, not paying attention to markets, and certainly not paying money to these people. Even the ones who will become elite traders are better off being more diversified at first and building skill.

Harvest season is when the high time frame forward returns of U.S. stocks are not good but you weirdly see "educators" or newsletter writers repetitively push casuals to increase their risk with plausible deniability. "I said short term of course." "I didn't *really* say to do it." "Wouldn't it be hilarious if..."

This is poverty mindset. Instead of damaging lives to acquire revenue, I'm going to become skilled at markets. My reputation will precede me. People who give, unexpectedly receive. Your credibility is important. The people who behave like this reveal to people like me that they have incentive misalignment with their readers' outcomes, which means to a meaningful degree you are better off purchasing information/education products from other people. Of course, you can do whatever you want.

The rest of this thread will quote into other examples of replies I made to content creators of dubious character reaping the harvest. Of all these guys the one I like most is Ryan Detrick, because he uses positive language (where much of finance noise tries to make people depressed). (Please don't unfollow me Sonu.) The Shrub is quoted in this opening post.

You notice none of them engage to acknowledge the validity of my point. The weird deflection makes me more confident they have some sense of what they're doing.

[Dark Crypto Lady @DarkCryptoLord]

It’s actually insanely hilarious that people were bullish because Jane Street or whatever got called out for their 10pm thingy.

Has to be the dumbest thesis I’ve heard even though I hear dumb shit everyday.

[jun @juny0x]

too tempting to long into this fear

[mytwogweis 🌳 @mytwogweis]

A stress test for the industry and for @TreehouseFi.

Today’s market was extremely challenging, and our thoughts are with everyone impacted 💚

Amid the volatility, $tETH's strategy and risk framework operated as designed, delivering 11.43% APY.

[jun @juny0x]

in the past week i have once again come to the conclusion that no one has alpha besides insiders

[Treehouse @TreehouseFi]

🌳 A Major Milestone in DOR Adoption

@FalconXGlobal has executed the first tradable Ethereum Staking Rate Forwards (FRAs) referencing TESR, the benchmark staking rate published by Treehouse.

Institutional participants include Edge Capital, Monarq, Mirana & more.

Read on. 🧵👇

[jun @juny0x]

@Hobi5648 downloading and playing this game immediately

[Treehouse @TreehouseFi]

🚨 New Listing: Upbit

$TREE is taking root in Korea, again! 🇰🇷

This time, it's landing on @Official_Upbit, one of the region’s most dominant platforms.

🌳 https://t.co/SC5srbfA6p

[SquirrelBBG | Treehouse Intern 🌳 @squirrelbbg]

based on our internal technical analysis, $TREE’s heading to $2 🌳🚀

[Treehouse @TreehouseFi]

🌳 The path to Gaia begins here.

Treehouse Airdrop Checker is now live!

If you participated in GoNuts Season 1, it’s time to verify your $TREE allocation ahead of our Token Generation Event (TGE), Gaia.

https://t.co/6cznCtTWnR

Full breakdown below. 🧵 👇

[Treehouse @TreehouseFi]

Gaia is Coming. 🌳

[CoinDesk Data & Indices @CoinDeskMarkets]

“Implementing reliable benchmarks could unlock the next evolution of DeFi — one that is not driven by speculation, but by structure, scalability, and institutional-grade infrastructure,” says @juny0x of @TreehouseFi

https://t.co/m85HChkVzX

[mytwogweis 🌳 @mytwogweis]

Wen Treehouse TGE?

I’ve been fortunate to experience both sides of a traditional IPO. First, as a junior on the Capital Markets team at HSBC - a stint that taught me one thing above all: timing is everything. Get it right, and your stock trades on narrative, momentum, and positioning. Get it wrong, and sometimes the story never recovers.

Circle is one of the few that recently got it right, but only after delaying their IPO three times over four years. They finally pulled the trigger right after the stablecoin bill cleared Congress, and that patience has made them the face of crypto in public markets today. Most companies aren’t as fortunate; many flop, and some never even make it to the opening bell.

I spent time on the other side too – as an Equity Research monkey for buy-side funds. That role taught me a few things: that an IPO is just the beginning; that managing investors is a full-time job; and that transparency and accountability walk a very fine line. Part of the role meant grilling CEOs, CFOs, and IR teams during earnings season, alongside institutions holding 5–10% of the company.

Interestingly, crypto isn’t that different; except instead of BlackRock or the JP Analyst next to you, it’s a keyboard warrior with a penguin PFP yelling in Discord. And he’s heard. This is the only industry where anyone - user, investor, community member - can show up and sound like Bill Ackman on earnings day. And that’s beautiful.

My point is this: a project’s TGE should be treated with the same seriousness as an IPO. To be clear, I’m not saying a TGE is an IPO (our lawyers are twitching as I write this). Tokens are a different beast. But having sat on both sides - Web2 and Web3 - I’ve come to respect what it means to get a launch right. But why write this?

Accountability vs Transparency

Crypto’s unique because the accountability spectrum is massive. Some projects have zero. Others, ironically, are more accountable than their Web2 counterparts. In Web2, accountability is often gated: top shareholders get the board seats and private updates, while everyone else waits for quarterly earnings calls. In Web3, anyone with skin in the game could potentially be in the same Telegram group.

But accountability and transparency are not the same thing. You can be accountable without being fully transparent, and you can be transparent without being truly accountable. That might sound contradictory, but it’s how most robust systems are designed. Accountability isn’t about flooding people with information too. It’s about being responsible for outcomes. It’s about building systems where actions have consequences, and where incentives are aligned across stakeholders.

That’s why transparency alone isn’t enough. Some teams overshare to appear honest, but never follow through. Meanwhile, some of the most responsible protocols rarely tweet, but consistently ship. The opposite is also true: a lack of constant transparency doesn’t mean you’re hiding something. Some of the best systems in the world, like blockchains, are trustless by design. They don’t care who’s the validator in your transaction. They work because incentives are aligned and rules are clear.

The same logic applies to us at @TreehouseFi. Don’t just look at what we’re tweeting. Look at how we’re behaving, and look at the variables that naturally make us accountable. For starters: I’m doxxed (hi). We’ve been around for over four years. We’re 40+ full-time employees deep. And growing.

And when it comes to transparency, we’re deliberate - because it’s a double-edged sword. Share too little, and people think you’re hiding something. Share too much, and you dilute the focus. The art is in the balance: knowing when to speak, what to show, and who needs to see it. And above all, making sure the people who actually have a stake in the outcome can trust that you’ll do what you say.

That’s why we’re doing this now. Because this is one of those moments where transparency helps. Not performatively and not out of pressure. But because our community deserves to know what’s behind the curtain.

So… Wen TGE?

It’s the #1 question our socials team has been fielding for months. So here goes: We’re ready - but we’re watching.

But… why wait when we’re ready? Because timing is a function of many things: market mood, liquidity conditions, capital flows, and thematics. It’s the same stuff IPO and DCM desks obsess over - especially if we want the token to perform, and not just spike on day one.

Crypto equities may be hot right now, but if you zoom out, the token side looks murky. Liquidity is patchy at best, and any MM or exchange would tell you that weekday volumes in this market feel like weekend flow. Part of this is driven by $TRUMP, https://t.co/2miqEt6VLz, and this cycle’s meme rotations, which have collectively sucked out short-term energy. Outside of $BTC, capital hasn’t really rotated back in, yet.

Therefore, we ask for your patience because this process is delicate. At the end of the day, we only get one shot - and we owe it to everyone who’s built with us, supported us, and waited for this moment, to get it right.

@TreehouseFi has been around for four years. We’ve weathered Luna, 3AC, and FTX. And we’re still here. That says a lot. We’re not here to play the short game. And when we launch, it’ll be because we believe the environment is right for our token, our product, and our community.

In the meantime, here’s what we’ve been focused on: how we’re thinking about product, positioning, and strategy. Because while TGE timing matters, it’s the fundamentals that do the heavy lifting after Day 1.

1. The Road for tETH
Not all TVL is created equal: if the underlying assets aren’t being put to work, it’s a vanity metric. And if it’s propped up by private deals, it’s not sustainable. That’s why our vaults are capped. I’m proud to say that every unit of TVL in tETH today is fully deployed for its intended purpose, and not a single cent comes from backdoor deals today.

Our growth strategy is long-term and measured. We don’t believe in short-term theatrics: that’s why you won’t see massive, sudden, unrealistic spikes on our charts. We want users who are here for the right reasons. Not mercenary capital, but real holders who see tETH as a way to earn $ETH staking yield, MEY arbitrage, and power the fixed income layer, DOR.

We take inspiration from the best, knowing that Lido didn’t get here overnight, but through years of reliability and steady growth. That's the trust we are building for tETH. Over the weekend, $tETH became the 4th ETH asset to go live on AAVE Prime, and many more use cases are coming with the largest protocols in DeFi.

2. The Treehouse Token
Everything we’ve done so far has been with long-term alignment in mind, and that’s why we’re confident heading into TGE.

The majority of tETH’s TVL is unlevered, which means our points system isn't artificially diluted. We’ve been intentional from the start: filtering out sybils, adjusting for participation, and calibrating the system to reward consistency, not short-term spikes.

The result is a distribution and payout that reflects actual contribution. More importantly, our token is not just a wrapper for points, but one with real utility, starting with DOR. We’re one of the first protocols to not only build a full fixed income pricing layer for crypto, but to publish a full book (“One Rate to Rule Them All”) on how it works, not for marketing, but because the mechanism matters. DOR is already being integrated by TradFi firms, RWA protocols, and even off-chain applications. And the entire system will be powered by our token.

3. Building an Ecosystem
We’re not waiting around. We’re building an ecosystem around DOR.

DOR is already seeing real-world traction. We’re working with RWA protocols to integrate DOR as their pricing layer. These aren’t pilots or grants: they’re commercial contracts we’ve signed. Two new chains are onboarding DOR to power their fixed income infrastructure, and one of the world’s largest prime brokers is using our data to price structured derivatives.

These are serious institutions looking for trusted benchmarks, and they’re choosing us.

We’ve been deliberate in how we support the ecosystem. We’re not just handing out grants and hoping something sticks. We’re focused on use cases that reinforce the DOR flywheel: protocols that deepen utility, increase data usage, and create recurring flows back to the token.

Internally, we’re also building on top of the DOR stack. From yield products to index vaults, our team is developing native protocols from scratch to demonstrate what’s possible and create the initial surface area for DOR growth. These in-house efforts aren’t stopgaps; they’re designed to bring real value back to Treehouse and the Treehouse token over time.

The goal is simple: make DOR the standard, and build the rails around it that let the ecosystem compound.

Gaia is Coming

We’re a 40-strong team, fully focused, building relentlessly, and playing the long game. No shortcuts, no smoke and mirrors: just real work and real progress. The fixed income and RWA revolution is coming fast, and @TreehouseFi will be at the center of it all.
While others talk, we’re shipping - hitting vault caps, onboarding major partners, expanding to new chains, delivering new tAssets and use cases.

This is only the beginning.

Gaia is coming.

[Treehouse @TreehouseFi]

🌳 What grows faster than DeFi? Project Bamboo.🎋

In this episode with @CamiRusso, @DefiantNews Founder, Chief Squirrel @mytwogweis introduces Project Bamboo—Treehouse’s latest push to unlock the ETH staking forwards market.

[ftlsid @ftlsid]

I think good counterculture doesn't come from hating the system, it comes from really loving something else

[jun @juny0x]

singapore is for sure becoming a lot more affectively polarized as a society. don't i like this trend going into ge2025

[jun @juny0x]

don't really understand the catalysts for the upside for alts rn - happy sidelining here

[mytwogweis 🌳 @mytwogweis]

The State of Trump, Simplified

A few side pings asking what I meant by “The State of Trump, Summarized,” so figured I’d write a longer one for the ETH jeets on X.

Long story short: the world is ending again. Jim Cramer’s calling for a Black Monday. Japan and Taiwan both hit circuit breakers. Hang Seng’s down 13%—the worst DoD move since the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997.

Beyond the spectacle, the golden-haired man is still his usual self, fiercely reposting on Truth Social: “Trump is Purposely CRASHING The Market,” and a more eloquent message about how “It’s going very well.” “It” referring to the market.

Normally, those two statements should be mutually exclusive. But because it’s Trump—a man who’s somehow managed to push almost every campaign promise since he was elected—two things can be true. Just like how he’s definitely lining his pockets (hi, $TRUMP), and also sincerely trying to Make America Great Again.

You don’t have to like Trump. But like Lincoln said: the more you dislike a man, the more you must get to know him.

So what’s he really doing?

Ignoring social issues, Trump’s economic game plan boils down to two things:

1. Weaken the USD
2. Narrow the Current Account Deficit

Why? Because the world’s been on a dollar bender for the past 50 years—ever since Nixon took the USD off gold in ’71. That move forced the world into a dollar-based system, which let the U.S. overconsume and overborrow without blowing up. But now that fragile structure is creaking. Trump sees the endgame—and instead of playing defense, he’s forcing it.

Let’s break this down in simpler terms:

The current account deficit is basically how much more the U.S. buys from the world than it sells to it. It’s like spending $5,000 every month while only making $2,000. The rest? Borrowed. Every year. For decades.

The United States’ debt-to-spending dynamic is like a middle-income family spending $20,000 more than its $70,000 annual income—while already being $470,000 in debt.

There are really only two ways to fix it: spend less, or earn more. But when you’re the United States, and you control the currency your debt is denominated in, there’s a third way: debase your currency.

Weaken the dollar to:
(1) make your assets cheaper and more attractive,
(2) make repaying debt easier and cheaper.

So how’s Trump going to do it?

He’s already told us. A sitting U.S. President only has three levers—and Trump’s pulling all of them.

Fiscally – government spending and taxes
Monetarily – the Fed
Externally – foreign policy and influence

*FISCALLY*
- Launching DOGE (Dept. of Gov. Efficiency) → forcing the government to spend less, which directly narrows the current account deficit.

- Boost domestic demand → not something he’s done yet, but he’s hinted at it. Easiest way? Stimulus checks. You can bet they’re coming.

*EXTERNALLY*
- Impose tariffs → aimed at localizing production and pushing manufacturing back to the U.S. Hard to do in 3 years, imo—most won’t uproot factories overnight. But maybe that’s not the point. More likely, he’s just trying to hurt China (the world’s #2 economy) and shift the balance of power.

- Solve geopolitical issues → net good for the U.S. and the world. While he’s at it, why not secure a few juicy deals (hi, Ukraine mineral play)? That’s why he’s pushing for NATO’s pullback and trying to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine. Peace saves money���and right now, supplying Ukraine is a massive cost center.

*MONETARILY*
- Pressure the Fed to cut rates → doesn’t directly print money, but makes borrowing cheaper, encourages credit growth, and usually weakens the dollar. The U.S. needs to roll over a chunk of that $30T+ in debt—lower rates = lower interest payments.

- Pressure the Fed to restart QE → this does print money. The Fed buys bonds, pumps liquidity into the system, inflates asset prices. It’s what they did post-2008 and post-COVID. QE weakens the USD, stimulates demand, and makes Treasuries easier to refinance.

It’s as simple as this: Trump is doing everything he can to weaken the dollar and close the current account deficit. His intentions aren’t hard to figure out. But what does this mean for us peasants?

Well, it’s all about timing. If stimulus hits tomorrow, markets will rip. If it takes 3 more months to bend China to its knees, we’re probably heading lower first. Can the devs from $TRUMP do something pls?

[jun @juny0x]

meow meow meow

[jun @juny0x]

@0xYpsono @NarwhalTan @hypurr_co where can i get one ser