NFL Week 2 Observations
- I hope Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels are not only back soon, but with no long-term ramifications. Brutal stuff
Patriots 20, Steelers 3
- Another fantastic game by Mike Vrabel’s defense, if Aaron Rodgers wasn’t a savvy all timer it would have actually been worse.
- Drake Maye didn’t play well against a high-performing Steelers front, but he did make a few impressive plays. One was an out of structure play he made on 3rdand 5, another was a play he made out of his own end. Again, I wouldn’t say Maye played well, I’d say the defense carried this victory as expected, but he at least had some legit flashes against a tough NFL defense, which is a step in the right direction.
- TreVeyon Henderson broke a 40ish yard run for a score, that was blocked perfectly, where he weaved those blocks as well as he could of, while accelerating at the right times. From that slant, that was as good of a team run as you’ll see.
- The Steelers defense was good enough to win, and I wouldn’t even say Rodgers outright played bad in this game given what he had to deal with, but this is still a volatile offense that I don’ think is going to age well.
Vikings 9. Bears 3
- I’m not going to go too far into the Chicago side of their game today given Williams injury, but rookie tight end Sam Rousch blew a block on a third down in Week 1, and he had three major negative plays in this contest. I would not be surprised if he saw the field less going forward.
- Chicago shot themselves in the foot with a pretty high volume in penalties, a fumble from the one, a blocked field goal on a block that Rousch fanned on (not to mention his drop), the Bears at least partially beat themselves today.
- I’ll also give a lot of credit to Brian Flores defense. He brought heat on third downs, and it was effective all day where they may have left with 8+ sacks against a quarterback without superhuman evasion abilities. The Vikings edge duo of Andrew Van Ginkel and Dallas Turner both had excellent games.
- It was a rainy, messy game all day, but Carson Wentz did not follow up his rock-solid Week 1 relief appearance with a good showing here. Making the Vikings 2-0 start given the division rivals they’ve already faced very advantageous for their future playoff prospects.
- I’ll reiterate that I think Dillon Thieneman looks like a real player, while adding that TJ Edwards had one of his better games over the last 12 months and rookie corner Malik Muhammad has had his moments in each of the last two weeks.
- Wentz missed Justin Jefferson for a TD on third down, where contact from Thieneman broke it up. Bears linebacker Devin Bush also dropped a gimmie interception on the first drive of this contest.
Bengals 20, Texans 6
- The Bengals offense vs the Texans defense was a very good game to watch for a football guy, as Joe Burrow and the Bengals play makers had their moments, including a circus catch for a TD from Ja’Marr Chase, while the Texans defense kept them contained and had an impactful pass rush. If you are anti field position mattering person, watching that game through that lens might make you rethink that some.
- Cincinnati’s pass rush had another good game, where C.J. Stroud accumulated yards in what was a very one-dimensional Texans offense, but the Bengals front got them off the field a number of times, including two fourth down attempts in the red zone in the first half that both failed.
- This game was ultimately closer than the score would indicate.
Browns 23, Buccaneers 19
- For the second week in a row, Baker Mayfield was the primary reason his team lost. This was a terrible loss to the Browns, with the oddity that the game was delayed for hours.
- Mayfield’s interception in this game could have conceivably been intercepted by two different players, at two different levels. I don’t see a lot of those, and I’m still a little beside myself how little Mayfield did in this game coming off a loss where he had three fumbles.
- Keep in mind Trevor Lawrence had four touchdowns last week against this same Cleveland defense.
- Deshaun Watson played well, where this may have genuinely been the best game he’s played since he left Houston.
- I’ll also give Cleveland’s defense credit for playing much better in their second road game in Florida in a row after getting shredded in Jacksonville next week.
Cowboys 37, Commanders 20
- The Cowboys offense was in a correction spot and their passing attack responded accordingly. Dak Prescott was excellent. CeeDee Lamb had a monster game. Lamb also saw a Texas route while lined up out of the backfield in this contest.
- Javonte Williams has been more line with what I was expecting last year, which is a player that hasn’t made much of a difference.
- It looked like Jayden Daniels might run for 150 yards and throw for 250 given the negative game script Washington was in. That is before he injured his elbow, which is a tragedy.
- Even though Washington was trailing, this game was competitive and entertaining until that point. The Commanders seemed like they were drawing dead once Marcus Mariota took over.
Broncos 20, Jaguars 13
- Good game out of the Broncos’ defense, pass rush was impactful and timely, I also thought it showed where Trevor Lawrence’s supporting cast is truly at, which is average at best, overall.
- Good game out of Bo Nix, behind very good pass protection from Denver against a talented Jaguars front.
- Jaylen Waddle saw action early and often in this contest, finishing 8-138 on 10 targets.
- Even if Denver’s backfield was 100% healthy, I could see Jonah Coleman taking on a bigger role, similar to when I said this about Kyle Monangai early last year.
Packers 20, Jets 17 (OT)
- Maybe the weather was significantly worse 60 miles north of me, but the Packers’ offense is extremely lucky they walked away with a win today. The run game was nonexistent for the second week in a row, and I saw close to nothing out of Jordan Love in this game.
- Jayden Reed left this contest early and did not return.
- Kaleb Johnson out carried Marshawn Lloyd 8-6. Unless Lloyd left with an injury I didn’t notice, that strikes me as a bit of an indictment on how this staff views Lloyd (he has never done much for me, either)
- Green Bay’s defense had a solid outing, as the Jets have a sneaky good non-quarterback roster on offense but I’d also put some of that on Geno Smith and the coaching staff in New York.
49ers 35. Dolphins 13
- This game went pretty much how I expected.
- The 49ers passing attack was nearly perfect against Miami, where that game was never in doubt.
- Mike Evans didn’t have a big stat line but he made a very high difficulty catch to extend a drive on the sideline. He also appeared to suffer an injury.
- Malik Willis is not a player you realistically want to march out as a starter for a full season, but he does have talent and Miami did have two encouraging drives that ended in field goals in the first half of this contest.
- I feel for Devon Achane.
Raiders 26, Chargers 14
- The Chargers do not have a very good roster, they start 0-2 despite hosting two very beatable teams, and now they face an absolutely brutal schedule stretch of: at Buf, at Sea, vs. Den, at KC, Bye, at LAR, vs. Hou, at Bal (MNF). If the Chargers play at the level they have the past two weeks, they are going to start 0-9.
- Drops, bad quarterback play, a first round running back that isn’t really a difference maker, bad interior line play, a coaching staff that isn’t adding much currently. I’ve seen nothing from this offense over the past two weeks.
- Vegas is 2-0. Kirk Cousins is a professional quarterback, but one thing that stood out to me today is I liked that they sent Nakobe Dean as a blitzer multiple times given the issues LAC has in their interior offensive line.
Panthers 34, Falcons 3
- Bryce Young has played two very good games to start the season. They weren’t against juggernaut defenses, but he drove two 30-point scoring outputs while looking good doing it. To be clear, Devin Lloyd had a defensive score, so the Carolina offense didn’t score 30+ points themselves Sunday, but they played another strong game.
- Speaking of looking good, Darren Waller has already provided more than I was expecting and he looked good in this game.
- The Falcons offense has been hard to watch through the first two games, so hopefully they get Tua Tagovailoa or Michael Penix back next week so that everyone can get a better read on this team.
- I definitely saw why Jack Strand was not allowed to start either of these games.
Saints 24, Ravens 17
- Baltimore dropping these kinds of games early in the year, at home, is such a bizarre pattern.
- This passing attack definitely missed Zay Flowers, not just because he’s their best pass catcher, but because when he’s out everyone else is forced to play one role up, and that doesn’t work with this Ravens roster.
- Lamar Jackson threw a pick late on the potential game tying drive.
- This was the best game I’ve seen Tyler Shough play, very impressive efficiency against a tough opponent on the road
- Kellen Moore has done a great job with Shough, but I’ve been very impressed with New Orleans defense given their roster and the two opponents they’ve opened the season with.
- Chase Young had a good enough game that I may go back and watch all his snaps specifically, to see if he might have found himself Sunday.
Eagles 24, Titans 20
- The Eagles are lucky they escaped Tennessee with a win today. Just a messy game that they basically handed to the Titans on a silver platter.
- That said DeVonta Smith had a monster game, where it looked like Saquon Barkley left and did not return.
- Even though the Titans hung tough here and had their chances to win, I don’t have many positive things to say about their offense, with the caveat I wasn’t looked in on this game.
Seahawks 31, Cardinals 7
- I didn’t see enough of this game to have any real takeaways apart from the defense has not regressed at all through two games after winning it all last year.
Chiefs 33, Colts 30 (OT)
- Brutal way for this contest to finish for the Colts, but they did take a contender to overtime.
- Really good offensive output from the Colts, driven by Jonathan Taylor and their run game. If Indianapolis stumbles this season the organization is out of their mind if they move on from Shane Steichen.
- Daniel Jones had a solid game manager type of showing, which is what he is. The pick he had I wouldn’t put on him, just a great play by Kristen Fulton on a contested slant.
- I was bullish on the Colts defense entering the season, and with how I had that mapped out, next week is the first test to see if I was too high on them.
- I would not have gone for it on 4th and 8 with Daniel Jones as my quarterback.
- The throw Xavier Worthy dropped from Patrick Mahomes that Cris Collinsworth gushed about, was gush worthy. I actually said out loud “you have to catch that for him” and my days of saying things to the TV have been over for years.
- Mahomes has been great through the first two weeks, and I’ve been pleasantly surprised with how much Travis Kelce has contributed.
I’ve watched every NFL game for roughly a decade (not this week’s Seahawks game, yet). I have done that for sports speculation purposes.
I run a reality-based program here.
If you want me to continue putting in the time to put this out as Sunday Night Football ends, comments and shares at the best way to show that. If the engagement continues to warrant the effort, I’ll continue putting this out consistently.
What an amazing turnaround by the Broncos offense from the first half to second half yesterdays went from -0.16 EPA/play in 1H to +0.32 EPA/play in 2H
Schematically they changed their pass protection plan with 13 of their 15 dropbacks in 2H having six or more in protection (only did that on 5 dropbacks in 1H)
They also ditched the behind LOS passes to attack the short and intermediate areas of the field
Most of their value was gained in third-and-short situations where Nix hit Waddle for 16 on third-and-two and 29 on third-and-three
Bo Nix, Jaylen Waddle and Nate Adkins were all great
My Waiver Wire Column ahead of week 3 just dropped over on @MBFantasyLife!
Total offensive scoring was down quite a bit in week 2 after major fireworks to open the season…but that doesn’t mean there aren’t some great pickups here.
Go check it out🫡⤵️
https://t.co/9imj4ummeu
The 5 offenses under 33% RB success rate:
Browns (20%), Eagles (30%), Broncos (32%), Texans (33%), Packers (33%)
This type of stat becomes predictive quickest.
#NFL Injury Updates
#Bears Caleb Williams - Reports = mild hamstring. Avg 2-3 wks. Rushing attempts do dip. MRI Mon. Suspect he avoids IR
#Commanders Jayden Daniels - Can treat with or w/o surgery. If no surgery, ~4 wks + HIGH re-injury risk. Surgery = season over
1/8
I wrote about Puka Nacua and the other top-50 WRs in fantasy this week. I just scanned the injury reports across the league and made some changes.
https://t.co/oFBIGFyIdd
🏈☔️ Football Weather - All FREE
- I updated my forecasts for all NFL games with the latest: https://t.co/vHgbmLSP44
- CFB Weather has the latest NWS data and is *always* updating. I don’t manually forecast for those as 77 games is too many damn games: https://t.co/JQjdtWRkMU
NFL Week 2 Preview
The second week of the season is among my favorites, because it’s correction week. Here’s what I’m looking at on this slate:
- Ben Johnson vs. Brian Flores is the best interdivision coaching matchup in the league currently. The Bears offense has the raw talent edge in said matchup.
- If Bill Belichick was calling a game against Caleb Williams, I think he’d try to make him play from the pocket while selectively blitzing, and when he did I think he’d send heat at Caleb’s throwing side, and he’d probably dial up more pressure with speed. Flores is not Belichick, but he’s scaled back his blitz rate against Johnson in the past and he’s on the short list of defensive coordinators that I could see really coloring outside the lines against Johnson/ Caleb.
- Kevin O’Connell vs. Dennis Allen is another excellent coaching matchup, where in this phase the Vikings have the more talented roster.
- Kyler Murray being out reduces the ceiling of Minnesota’s offense, but I’ll also say that Carson Wentz’s relief appearance against Green Bay last week is the best I’ve seen him play in years. That said, I need to see Dennis Allen limit Carson Wentz at home after what I saw in Carolina last week, where short to intermediate in breakers were basically free for the whole game.
- If Minnesota loses with Wentz at the controls, that’s not a big deal to me, the pressure is more on Chicago to put this one away against a division rival, and no one in the NFC North is an easy out.
- Broncos vs. Jaguars is the most interesting game on the slate for me because I have these two teams in the same relative bucket, where I went with Denver having a more successful 2026 and winning this game when I mapped things out this offseason.
- Denver’s pass rush has a trench advantage in this contest, and their offensive line should be able to mitigate the strength of Jacksonville’s defense, which is their front. In fact, I could see Denver having a sneaky good game on the ground in this matchup. I’m very curious to see if Davis Webb leans into that after bombing last Monday night.
- Trevor Lawrence is the X-Factor in this contest, where I am a week away from outright saying that I’d rather have him than Drake Maye long-term, which is one of the reasons I’m really looking forward to this contest.
- Speaking of Maye, he draws another quality front and a Steelers’ defense that he struggled against/ lost to last season. One that added talent this offseason, but it looks like it will be without Joey Porter Jr. Maye is a nice young player, but he has not played very well against real NFL defenses. I’ll be curious to see how he bounces back coming off what might have been his worst game as a Patriot to date last week.
- The other side of the ball is where I see New England having an edge, as you get Mike Vrabel’s defense, coming off a loss they had very little to do with, against a Steelers offense that quite simply let Cooper Rush’s Falcons hang around all day last week. Keep in mind that Pittsburgh also scored defensively on an outlier play by T.J. Watt in their 20-13 win over the Falcons last week.
- I have defended Aaron Rodgers over the past two years, as he’s had plenty of good to impressive games for a quarterback over the age of 40 during that span. He has not been at the peak of his powers, nor should anyone have expected him to be given his age, but he’s been solid or better more often than not. I did not want him to return this season because I thought that might change, and I’m concerned that I’m right after Week 1.
- Houston’s defense is coming off a shootout that they lost, where they’ll now get a second high-powered offense manned by another elite quarterback in Joe Burrow, who is a bit banged up but is playing. The Texans pass rush/ secondary combo against Burrow/ Ja’Marr Chase/ Tee Higgins is as good of a heavyweight matchup as there is.
- Nico Collins is out, which gives C.J. Stroud a very thin group of pass catchers against an otherwise beatable Bengals secondary. What’s interesting for me here is Cincinnati’s front had a pretty good game against Tampa last week, and the Bucs have a significantly better offensive line than Houston does. I could see the Bengals front being impactful in Houston, if not the difference in this contest.
- Cowboys vs. Commanders isn’t quite a loser leaves town matchup, but it’s close. Dak Prescott is coming off a pretty middling game, where I could see the Cowboys offense bouncing back against a well-coached, but mediocre at best Commanders defensive roster.
- On the other side of things, we just saw Jaxson Dart play ultra efficient football against the Cowboys’ defense. Jayden Daniels could carry this game, giving this contest some very high scoring potential if both quarterbacks are on.
- The Rams are in the most obvious correction spot on the slate, especially Matthew Stafford who is coming off one of the worst games I’ve ever seen him play.
- I’m throwing out the Australia game for the purposes of evaluating the Rams, but Stafford did look a little old in that matchup, so the primary thing I’m looking for here is was that just a veteran quarterback coming off an outrageously long flight, or did father time catch up to the future Hall of Famer a bit this offseason? I expect Stafford to be fine, but I have my eyes on that.
- The Giants pass rush has an abnormal amount of talent at edge, but that group did not have much of an impact against Dallas. Is that a group that feasts on bad offenses/ bad tackles, or can they be a factor against a contender? If you’re a Giants fan, I’d have my eye on that.
- The other thing you’re looking for is what Jaxson Dart does in this spot. So far, Dart has been pretty good when he’s not facing what I’m going to start calling chaos pressure. The great ones succeed despite it, the good but not great guys do not. Myles Garrett is out, which obviously reduces the chances of the Rams front four derailing this game, even though Aaron Donald returns to the NFL for Monday Night Football.
- For me, Dart can’t really do anything that I’d flag as a real long-term negative in this matchup, apart from taking another front side hit on the chops that he doesn’t see. That’s a pattern I’d like to see him break. But if the Rams defense plays well, and Stafford returns to form, if Dart keeps New York in this game, that’s very encouraging.
- The 49ers are better at every single position group than Miami, where running back is the only one that’s close. San Francisco also has the far better, more accomplished coach, creating an environment that would require a catastrophe for them to lose given how many advantages they have.
- I saw very little out of Miami in Week 1, which is what I expected, but my biggest concern in this matchup is if Malik Willis has to play from behind for much of this game, he takes a lot of bad sacks. Further, San Francisco, arguably, has the best linebacker group in the league, which will limit his rushing upside. Like I said, I think it will require a catastrophe for the 49ers to lose here.
- Last week was the best I’ve ever seen Zay Flowers look, where I wondered aloud on two separate occasions last Sunday if he might be a top 5 receiver. I’ve always liked him, but that blew my top off a little last week. Flowers being doubtful is generally unfortunate, but he had a potential smash spot against New Orleans.
- That makes Lamar Jackson’s job tougher. If any quarterback in the league doesn’t need a difference making wide receiver to have a plus game, it’s Jackson. That said, given that Flowers absence makes Jackson’s legs his far and away biggest asset in this game, paired with the presence of the immortal Derrick Henry coming off one of his signature monster games, I wonder if New Orleans, who has been well coached since Kellen Moore took over last year, goes into the archives and tries to do their best to duplicate Brian Flores’ blitz-heavy approach that has shut down Jackson in the past. That’s easier said than done, but I’d put New Orleans on the short list of teams that might try it.
- Tyler Shough had one of the oddest games you’ll ever see last week, where he was genuinely bad for 40 minutes, but finished with over 400 yards passing after the overtime period. Jessie Minter’s Ravens are a significantly tougher out than the current Detroit Lions defense, that we just saw get annihilated by Josh Allen Thursday night.
- One thing on my radar is Baltimore has lost a few improbable games in September over the years.
- I’ve been pretty enthusiastic about the Jets long term prospects for a while, with the concern that they’d be just good enough to not be able to get a true future at quarterback in this year’s draft, as you can’t really trade up with teams that need a quarterback themselves. That said, I think Green Bay wins here and Jordan Love has a pretty high ceiling in this matchup.
- If the Packers get beat up a bit by Geno Smith, who actually has a pretty good supporting cast, I’ll be concerned about Green Bay’s defense given some of the changes they’ve endured this offseason.
- I also wonder if this sets up for a Breece Hall game, as Green Bay has been a run sieve in previous seasons in the recent past.
- You could say Baker Mayfield single handedly lost a winnable game in Cincinnati last week with his three fumbles. If he does not play significantly better in his revenge game against the Browns, who were atrocious last week, I will have many questions.
- Deshuan Watson is the only NFL player I’ll point blank say I don’t like, not only because of his off-field stuff, because he’s been a moron both before and after about it. He’s also had the strangest career drop off imaginable, as he looked like a future Hall of Famer in Houston, yet throughout his career in Cleveland he has been a guy that is a fringe NFL quarterback. I don’t recall any other instance that’s similar to this. He’s playing behind a bad line against a solid Bucs front, but this is also the kind of matchup where if he has anything left, he has to show some of it here.
- I would hope this is a KC Concepcion week, but it’s also a good spot for Jerry Jeudy.
- I thought the Jets were going to score some points on the Titans, but I could not believe that Tennessee did not keep up at all. I also cannot believe how little progress their offensive line has made, given the draft capital and financial investments they’ve made in that group. I also, as I’ve said many times, had zero enthusiasm for the Saleh/ Daboll hires. Facing this Eagles defense looks like a bad situation for this offense unless they can completely transform within a week.
- I have had good experiences over the years with Falcons fans, which is part of the reason I genuinely feel bad for them that they are opening the season with two games from third string quarterback Cooper Rush. I will say this though, if Atlanta ended up being the worst team in the league this season, where they could get a No. 1 overall pick quarterback, that may actually be the best thing for this franchise because they do have some pieces. I don’t think that’s going to happen, but if they end up being bad in the league’s worst division, I hope it’s that level bad.
- I could see this matchup with Carolina this week leading the slate in total running back touches between both teams.
- The Chargers interior offensive line was unbelievably bad late against Arizona last week. Off the charts bad. I would think the powers that be in LA go into this game trying to help that group out, and keep Justin Herbert alive, which would start with a run centric game plan, get those interior players playing down hill early, move Justin Herbert outside of the pocket on one of the first plays, pair all that with a few short throws on first down. If this coaching staff basically ignores the problems they are having in the interior, I will be genuinely concerned.
- Right now, that group gives me no confidence in the Chargers.
- I like the Raiders long term outlook, but I’d put last week’s output more on Miami than anything that impressed me with Vegas, apart from Ashton Jeanty being a player and Maxx Crosby still looking like Maxx Crosby.
- I’ve never been a Drew Lock guy, he’s not a bad backup because he’s capable of a spike game, but he’s also capable of three turnovers on 20 attempts. That’s why I view this game in Arizona as close to a coin flip.
- I kind of like Arizona’s non-quarterback roster on offense and Jacoby Brissett has been better than anyone could have expected since taking over last year, but Seattle’s defense is an enormous problem to solve.
- I pretty confidently picked the Chiefs to win the West before the season and they certainly looked back in Week 1. Kenneth Walker already looks like a difference maker, Patrick Mahomes is still himself coming off a major knee injury and the defense is still a pretty high-performing group. They should take care of business against the Colts, the question for me is can Indianapolis hang after getting their doors blown off by Baltimore at home last week?
- When mapping out the season I had the Colts surging in the second half, but I’d like to see a more competitive game out of them Sunday Night, especially on defense.
I’ve watched every NFL game for roughly a decade now, which I do for sports speculation purposes.
I run a reality-based program here.
If you want me to keep doing this every week, comment or share this. As long as engagement justifies the time, I’ll keep putting stuff like this out consistently.
Dalton Kincaid: High-end TE1 for the rest of the way.
Routes (70%) are up significantly versus the last two years. Still not in the elite range (80-90%), but a clear focal point when on the field, with 29% targets per route (TPRR).
No FB + healthy = good times for Kincaid.
🏈☔️ You can get an automated forecast anywhere, but a written forecast note from an actual meteorologist? https://t.co/bTu5IqC0ZU FREE
I’ve got this week’s NFL weather outlook up, will adjust as we get closer to Sunday
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My Week 2 Fantasy Football Rankings (Updated)
-Removed Nico Collins and Ladd McConkey. Will add them back if we get any positive news. Several injury situations still up in the air.
https://t.co/tAe7ml4aZO
#NFL Injury Updates
#Texans Nico Collins - Rare to sustain hamstring Wed and play Sun. Avg ~2 wks but severity TBD pending MRI. Also has significant hamstring history which raises re-injury concerns
#Bengals Joe Burrow - Low short-term concern. Likely playing w/o limit
1/5