Kevin Cole

🏈 @Unexpected_Pts newsletter/pod. Previously Data Scientist @PFF. Stats are numbers, numbers are nerds, nerds are losers. Therefore, stats are losers

[Kevin Cole @KevinCole___]

2026 NFL Offseason Improvement Index is up and running @Unexpected_Pts

Compares end-of-season roster point-differential projections to those reflecting offseason changes, including draft capital effects.

It doesn't project this well *every* offseason, but 2025 results were solid:

Top-3: Patriots, Bears & Panthers
Bottom-3: Chiefs, Jets, Eagles

[Michael Lopez @StatsbyLopez]

The Ravens are hiring a data scientist (https://t.co/mG6PPSlwya) and football systems developer (https://t.co/4mhajtDeeC)

[Matthew Coller @MatthewColler]

A ton of interesting stuff in this article about how the Panthers utilize the talents of former PFF’er @ericeager_ who is profiled in my book and was a frequent Purple Insider guest once upon a time

https://t.co/HH8G7IGJLu

[Wharton Moneyball @WMoneyball]

Today's show is available in Podcast Form NOW!

Richard Thaler, Nobel Laureate and Professor at the University of Chicago, and Benjamin Robinson, Founder of Grinding the Mocks discuss the impact of cognitive bias, valuation frameworks and data strategies on NFL draft selections.

Listen HERE: 👇👇👇
https://t.co/jxhhYx6i4Q

[Kevin Cole @KevinCole___]

@NickWinters006 Yeah team needs is a big issue. Outside of elite QB and maybe offensive tackle, it's hard to check boxes and assume you have any positions truly covered, and therefore know which other ones are needs

[Kevin Cole @KevinCole___]

"While I’m a strong advocate of process-based thinking and assessment, I have to admit #teamresults has a point. It’s not that their method of waiting years after the draft to have an opinion makes any sense - it doesn’t. It’s that nearly all of the draft grades you will see this week will do a poor job emphasizing the decisions that have real predictive power.

"Most draft grades will focus on the individual player selections, and whether their rank ordering aligns with the pre-draft opinions of the analyst. If media draft experts build their credibility on the hammer of player evaluation, then draft assessment becomes the nail of agreeing or disagreeing with the valuation of the players selected."
https://t.co/SicFoaxbZl

[Kevin Cole @KevinCole___]

So what is predictive? How can we measure NFL draft success?

- Trade value
- Positional value
- Selection value (reach/steal vs consensus)
https://t.co/aq31Q5Ycbd

[Kevin Cole @KevinCole___]

"It’s difficult for most people to understand that what’s ultimately the most impactful aspect of a decision (the specific prospect chosen) isn’t the best way to judge the decision. If you’re playing the lottery, the most impactful decision will be the number you choose, but we don’t give someone credit for great number-picking if they win.

"While the draft isn’t as inherently random at the lottery, the degree to which there can be relative advantage in prospect evaluation is mostly whittled away by 32 teams of experts who are all very good at their jobs."
https://t.co/SicFoaxbZl

[Kevin Cole @KevinCole___]

The Eagles gave up a lot of trade value to sign a veteran player to a market contract. But they more than made up for it in their draft pick positional value.

All my draft grades and surplus value calculations here
https://t.co/5UKd9y43tO

[Kevin Cole @KevinCole___]

Sure, if you know Stafford won't get injured, and the entire team will play at a Super Bowl level, and you'll make it deep into playoffs, and your other attempts to fill needed receiver positions will fail, then there's an obvious case that you need to draft a WR. But you don't know all those things

[Kevin Cole @KevinCole___]

See some commentary on the Orlovsky quote. He's right in saying the Rams likely "are" not one WR3 away from winning the Super Bowl, which is different than saying they "were" not one player away last season

[Get Up @GetUpESPN]

"This is a Sean McVay decision. Make no doubts about it." —@PSchrags

"If you think the Rams are 52 catches and 4 touchdowns away from a wide receiver from going to the Super Bowl and winning it, you're out of your mind." —@danorlovsky7

"I want guys that can help me right now win a Super Bowl." —@damienwoody

The crew reacts to the Rams drafting QB Ty Simpson 👀

[Kevin Cole @KevinCole___]

Here's the entire analysis for the AFC
https://t.co/vnZXmAg9zg

[Kevin Cole @KevinCole___]

Analytical AFC Draft Grade @Unexpected_Pts

The most objective analysis of draft value gained/lost, looking at trades, positional value and selection (reach/steal) effects, all through the lens of surplus value ($$)

[Sam Hoppen @SamHoppen]

We already have a pretty good framework (backed by data) about what constitutes bad and good process in the draft, making it easier to judge teams in this way. Plus, @KevinCole___ has done the research on why waiting is even worse. https://t.co/gvPIVIIVl1

[Kevin Cole @KevinCole___]

This plot represents what I base draft surplus value calculations on by position.

Surplus value = "NFL Value" or contract cost for an equivalent veteran player - rookie contract cost

Everything denominated in percentage of salary cap

[Kevin Cole @KevinCole___]

Biggest "reach" in the first round according to the consensus big board: Malachi Lawrence

By consensus mock drafts: Caleb Banks

Biggest "steal" by both metrics: Keldric Faulk

[Kevin Cole @KevinCole___]

My full analysis of the first round, including surplus value calculations for every pick and commentary
https://t.co/yca6AlyAhW

[Kevin Cole @KevinCole___]

Preview of what will be available on @Unexpected_Pts tomorrow morning: Analytical analysis of the first round by estimated surplus value for every pick.

Also reach/steal metrics using consensus data from big boards (@jacklich10) and mock drafts (@benj_robinson)

[Kevin Cole @KevinCole___]

@Clevta Good thing that NFL analysts have access to AWS, NextGen Stats and NFLIQ to tackle new and innovative draft questions

[Kevin Cole @KevinCole___]

The full article with tables for every player transaction valuation here, plus a link to the subscriber google sheet with all the downloadable site metrics
https://t.co/1SdarSMVHD

[Kevin Cole @KevinCole___]

Big update to the @Unexpected_Pts Offseason Improvement Index with the Dexter Lawrence trade. Bengals now in the top-10, Giants fall into the bottom-4.

160 player transactions built into the index, with individual player valuations for every transaction