Johnny Yves

P. Eng., M.B.A., C-suite experience in 20 + years with TSX-listed companies. Investment interest in Tech, AI, cyber, spatial, semis & BTB,
and LT compounders.

[Johnny Yves @jybacle]

This is a G.S. chart scenario.
As usual, the media only presented and highlighted the worst-case scenario of oil jumping to $120.

They never bother to mention the G.S. base case of oil drifting lower and the best case of an oil price collapse by 2028 to below 50$

[Johnny Yves @jybacle]

Drill, baby, drill!
US export permits for oil and refined petroleum products, including gasoline and diesel, are setting up for a majestic go / no go showdown next September
MAGA

[Johnny Yves @jybacle]

@barometerca Trading commodities is like riding a wild mustang horse in the prairies! They're stubborn and unpredictable

[Johnny Yves @jybacle]

Momentum trading is similar to zombies
They never die easily!
There's always something and somewhere happening

[Johnny Yves @jybacle]

PS
Stop wasting our taxpayer money and your precious time by travelling continuously to the EU
Our future is rooted in the West Pacific, Asia, and the North American continent

[Johnny Yves @jybacle]

Canada-USA trade dates back to the 1854 Elgin-Elgin Reciprocity Treaty
Most Canadians want a decent living standard and a happy neighbourhood
As a Canadian citizen, message to Carney;
Either change your negotiating Team and get this deal done, or submit your resignation letter.

[Johnny Yves @jybacle]

@CTVNews Duty on overpriced hockey sticks
NHL's expanded salary cap can afford it
who cares
blabla

[Johnny Yves @jybacle]

@Reuters Canadian dairy and milk products are 30% higher priced than in the USA
The US has a point here !

[Johnny Yves @jybacle]

@BBCBreaking This country needs a referendum to fire Carney

[Johnny Yves @jybacle]

@CanadaForEurope @KobeissiLetter canada + eu= sinking boat

[Johnny Yves @jybacle]

Checklist for H2 2026
Mid-term year
New central bank Fed Chairman
Market anticipates a 25-basis-point rate raise for September
SPX vol seasonality starts in 10 days
Fasten your seatbelt and keep your powder dry

[Johnny Yves @jybacle]

@consequencerisk @MichaelAArouet immigrate to the USA, Canada, and Australia
Grab our opportunity
It's been working for 250 years +
My parents did the same back in 1952 and never looked back

[Johnny Yves @jybacle]

That's what higher inflation for longer does to retirees' vacation plans.
Maybe the EU and France should get the memo.
The overspending, debt accumulation, debasing of currencies, and rearming & war have a price, and it's called inflation

[Johnny Yves @jybacle]

The art of the degenerate trade
Korean style
with ETF 3 to 4X
vol all u want

[Johnny Yves @jybacle]

@consequencerisk @MichaelAArouet Why the EU is sinking in one chart
Its biggest economy, Germany, has seen private investment decline since 2020, while the government spending spigot is fully open for German rearmament 3.0 ! We've seen this movie before

[Johnny Yves @jybacle]

Barron's weekend article on SaaS Apocalypse:

Winners are: Cybersecurity, AI infrastructure monitors & ID & gatekeepers:
Data API PLTR

Questionable
MSFT with Azure cloud is a lifesaver.

Other SaaS software
Already on the deathrow greenline but still in denial mode

[Johnny Yves @jybacle]

@KobeissiLetter Premature judgment!
The only case here is that LLM AI models are an highly perishable products with a very short life cycle

[Johnny Yves @jybacle]

2026 global oil refinery destruction capacity of 7%;
The crack spreads are hitting ATH;
Both gasoline & diesel + jet fuel prices are at record highs
Petroleum products shortages are imminent
All of this global oil demand destruction is happening with sub-$100 Brent and WTI.

[Johnny Yves @jybacle]

@Giz3h @MichaelAArouet That's what the Roman said before the crumbling and the lions entering the Colosseum

[Johnny Yves @jybacle]

@consequencerisk @MichaelAArouet The good ones have already left the barn and are living in the USA because they are smart.
Arbitrage 101 !!!