🚨 Japan’s 30-year bond yield has now surpassed Germany’s-
Even though Japan’s policy rate remains far lower.
Long-term yields are driven by more than central bank rates.
Inflation expectations, fiscal concerns, debt supply, and term premium matter more than most realize.
🇯🇵 JAPAN IS PLAYING A VERY DANGEROUS GAME HERE.
Currently, Japan is exploring ways to encourage its state pension funds to increase investments in domestic assets, which includes shifting capital into government bonds and even Japanese yen.
This is why Japanese bond yields are dropping hard while yen is strengthening a bit.
But this is all just a short-term thing.
Poland and Argentina have already tried this before, and they failed miserably in the long term.
Not only that, this move pushed the government debt onto their citizens.
Japan is thinking of doing the same, and it won't change anything in the long term.
Bond yields will rise again, the yen will continue to devalue, and economic growth will slow down.
And in the end, there'll be a recession or even a depression in Japan.
The biggest lesson of the AI era: never get comfortable.
On June 2nd, IBM, $IBM, was up +13% for the year and trading at its highest level on record.
Today, just 42 days later, $IBM fell -25% posting its biggest daily decline since 1968.
The stock is now down -35% in 42 days erasing over -$100 billion in market cap.
AI is rapidly transforming the global economy.
Adapt or be left behind.