Samir

shrimp farmer

[Samir @kairos_32]

@i_am_chs @EgeErdil2 Both posts were after the election.

[Samir @kairos_32]

@EgeErdil2 Trump makes a million falsifiable statements a day. The fact that some of them happen to be truthful aren’t due to “a willingness to tell the truth” but rather pure chance.

The truth social post I attached is an example of that.

[Samir @kairos_32]

@EgeErdil2 The point of that screenshot is that he doesn't tell the truth but rather whatever makes him look the best.

When the market goes up he takes the credit, when the market goes down he points the blame at others.

saying that he has a "willingness to tell the truth" is something..

[Samir @kairos_32]

@dylanbowmanSF Ignoring object-level evidence aside, does Daniel Kokotajlo, Ryan Greenblat, and Ajeya Cotra all shorterning to lower timelines update you similarly?

[Samir @kairos_32]

@tszzl "racing into RSI is a folly" says the guy working for the racing to RSI company

[Samir @kairos_32]

@GeneSmi96946389 @NunoSempere I think probably in most possible futures this trade doesn't work.

But I also think it's insanely positive EV nonetheless.

Going All In

[Samir @kairos_32]

@GeneSmi96946389 @NunoSempere I had a similar idea back in December 2024. But was ultimately shaken out of it with the reasoning that the increase in interest rates may offset any SPY gain from huge economic growth.

If we really get "interest rates above 50%" and all hell is about to break, why do this?

[Samir @kairos_32]

@claudio_dgr @AcerFur @lyraxana

[Samir @kairos_32]

@AcerFur @lyraxana How do you feel about the benchmark for evaluating models that don't yet saturate it? Like Qwen and Deepseek

[Samir @kairos_32]

@sterlingcrispin @azala__ @alexriesart METR in 2028 stumbling upon a GPT-9 created message board.

[Samir @kairos_32]

@littmath https://t.co/1FCWk93nM7

[Theo Jaffee @theojaffee]

"I believe OpenAI resolved the Hodge conjecture."

"Actually, I've heard it was Birch-Swinnerton-Dyer."

"Do you even know what either of them are?"

"No. Do you?"

"No."

[Samir @kairos_32]

@AcerFur Told my friends this and when they asked for a source I said "the 22 year old savant furry OpenAI intern on twitter"

[Samir @kairos_32]

@TheZvi A Beautiful Mind

[Samir @kairos_32]

@levchizhov Speed running this, building a transducer from scratch to do so. I can’t wait