Kalle

“Many think stock markets crash when the economy is bad…Most often, stocks crash when expectations of the future are already so good…they can't get any better”

[Kalle @kalle247]

@bt_chick Vad roligt! Bra jobbat 👍 Grattis!

[greg @greg16676935420]

This is the best content currently on the internet

[Yano 🟪 @JasonYanowitz]

Fantastic piece, Bitcoin has bottomed

[Kalle @kalle247]

@Micro2Macr0 I’m a potential subscriber. What can I expect? Investment opportunities? Macro analysis? Technical analysis? Portfolio updates?

[Kalle @kalle247]

@brushandcolor @sonofabonde Det var slut på namnen Anders, Daniel och Stefan

[Kalle @kalle247]

@ekonomigurun_ Oavsett pris på IPO, hög värdering eller ej. Om den är kraftigt övertecknad, lockup till första kvartalsrapporten, dvs den första delen av aktierna kan inte säljas, begränsad free float, indexfonder ska in (dock begränsad påverkan ibörjan), så borde det vara ett ok bet. 🤠

[Stephan Livera @stephanlivera]

Bitcoin power law year end price projections until 2035.

Of course actual price can end up higher or lower, but this helps me get a baseline idea for where things are going.

[Kalle @kalle247]

@Ingetval Här var Leif Loket Olsson 13år

[Anuj @anujcodes_21]

Claude FULL COURSE 1 HOUR (Build & Automate Anything)

[On-Chain Mind @OnChainMind]

Bitcoin spends 96% of its life below its all-time high.

Almost the entire return is made in the other 4%, in short violent bursts most holders never wait around for.

I explore every drawdown in Bitcoin’s history, and what the data says actually happens next👇🏼

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

🚨HOW TO OUTPERFORM BITCOIN BY 3X AND OUTPERFORM MSTR BY 2X🚨

I found the most deranged way to express the Bitcoin bull case without personally levering my house, my dog, and my remaining emotional stability.

The trade:

Buy the MSTR Dec 2028 $275 call for about $6,200.

Yes. A call option on Michael Saylor’s publicly traded Bitcoin refinery, funded by preferred stock, wrapped in CEBE math, floating through the fiat hospice ward like a radioactive orange hearse.

Here’s the setup.

Bitcoin is around $76,500.

Strategy owns 843,738 BTC.

MSTR trades around $165.

Strategy has roughly:

$8.25B of debt
$15.48B of preferreds
$2.25B of cash

Net senior claims:
$21.48B.

Using CEBE, you subtract the senior claims from the Bitcoin stack because common shareholders do not economically own the whole pile.

They own what is left after the capital structure’s velvet-rope vampire lounge gets paid.

At today’s BTC price, those senior claims equal about 280,824 BTC.

So Strategy’s common equity has claims-adjusted exposure to roughly:

562,914 BTC.

That is the real common equity Bitcoin base.

Now here’s where the trade goes full financial Chernobyl.

Assume Strategy issues $2B/month of STRC for 30 months.

Think that's a bullish assumption? Hardly. They issued MORE THAN THAT during both April AND May. This is BEARISH.

Correct... this is assuming STRC growth SLOWS DOWN.

Over the 30 months until your option expires, that is $60B of new preferred stock.

They use it to buy Bitcoin every month while Bitcoin moves linearly from $76,500 to $250,000 by Dec 2028.

By the way, that is $110,000 UNDER the Bitcoin power law fair value.

ANOTHER bearish input.

That $60B buys about 409,437 BTC.

So Strategy’s stack grows from:

843,738 BTC to 1,253,175 BTC. (they'll have close to that a year from now actually, LOL)

But the new $60B senior claim, at $250k BTC, equals only:

240,000 BTC.

That means the $60B STRC machine buys 409,437 BTC, while the claim against common is only 240,000 BTC by the end.

Net new common CEBE created: 169,437 BTC.

That is the whole game.

Saylor borrows in fiat-brained preferred stock, buys apex collateral, waits while the dollar claim shrinks in Bitcoin terms, and common shareholders get the spread.

It is like taking out a mortgage on a burning retirement home and using the proceeds to buy Manhattan before the zoning board discovers fire.

Now model the outcomes.

Bitcoin goes from $76,500 to $250,000.

BTC return: 3.27x (+227%)

MSTR, under the CEBE model with the same current claims-adjusted multiple, goes from about $165 to about $886.

That's correct... ZERO multiple expansion:

MSTR return: 5.38x (+438%)

Already disgusting.

Bitcoin buys you the orange ark.

MSTR buys you a seat in the engine room with a man in a suit converting preferred shareholders into escape velocity.

But the option?

The Dec 2028 $275 call costs about $62/share.

One contract costs $6,200.

Breakeven: $337.

If MSTR hits $886, that call is worth:

$886 minus $275 = $611/share.

Contract value: $61,100.

Return: 9.86x (+886%)

So in this model with BEARISH ASSUMPTIONS:

Bitcoin goes 3.27x.

MSTR goes 5.38x.

The call goes 9.86x.

That means the option outperforms Bitcoin by roughly 3x.

And outperforms MSTR common by roughly 2x.

This is the financial equivalent of discovering the casino built a second casino inside the first casino and the fire exit is priced as a long-dated derivative.

STRC is basically Saylor saying:

“Give me your fixed income money, I will buy Bitcoin with it, and if the monetary system continues behaving like a raccoon trapped in a Federal Reserve air duct, my common shareholders keep the upside.”

The option is the most violent version of that thesis.

You are not buying Bitcoin.

You are not even buying MSTR.

You are buying a long-dated claim on the possibility that:

Bitcoin goes to $250k (under power law fair value)

Strategy keeps issuing preferred stock (slower than they already are)

The market keeps valuing MSTR at a premium to claims-adjusted BTC exposure

The fiat system continues speedrunning late-stage empire cosplay

Risks? Obviously.

If BTC underperforms, the preferred stack becomes a fat guy sitting on the common equity’s chest.

If MSTR premium compresses, the option gets its teeth kicked in.

If volatility collapses or timing fails, the Greeks drag you into the alley behind Robinhood and harvest your organs.

This is not a safe trade.

This is not a retirement plan.

This is not financial advice.

This is financial entertainment.

This is a leveraged bet on Saylor turning the preferred stock market into a Bitcoin particle accelerator before the fiat priesthood realizes the altar is on fire.

But if the model is right?

BTC: +227%
MSTR: +438%
MSTR $275 Dec 2028 call: +886%

That is how you potentially outperform Bitcoin by 3x and MSTR by 2x.

Welcome to the preferred era.

Please keep your arms and legs inside the capital structure at all times.

[𝗰𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗼𝗽 @nobrainflip]

"If $BTC cycles work, everyone would trade them"

The gym works, but look around you.

[Kalle @kalle247]

@HankSweden Günter Mårder?

[Kalle @kalle247]

@maryeolsson Jo, men det finns ju hiss.

[Kalle @kalle247]

@bnbchen 67

[Kalle @kalle247]

@dise_tv 57982 💪

[Kalle @kalle247]

@ekonomigurun_ Bananssons frestelse, bananer har blivit för dyra.

[Kalle @kalle247]

@nderchris Kul, kör hårt. 👍

[Anthony Pompliano 🌪 @APompliano]

I built an AI tool to predict what happens in financial markets after the US bombed Iran.

This is what @cfosilvia told me will likely occur:

- Crude oil will go sharply higher
- US equities will go sharply lower
- Gold sharply higher
- US Treasuries get higher prices, lower yields
- US dollar will go higher
- Bitcoin & crypto will go lower
- International equities go lower but divergent
- Real estate has negative pressure
- Industrial commodities have mixed reaction

(you can ask her to analyze the impact on your portfolio: https://t.co/bMI7hLeciU)

Silvia also outlined the critical variables to watch over the next few weeks.

👉 The next 72 hours will determine whether this is a 2-week event or a multi-month regime change in markets.

👉 Strait of Hormuz — If Iran attempts to close or mine it, every commodity in the world reprices violently upward. This is the single most important variable.

👉 Escalation vs. Containment — Does Iran's retaliation remain proportional (missiles at bases), or does it attack oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, UAE, or Kuwait? The Iran-backed Houthis have already threatened renewed Red Sea strikes.

👉 Russia and China's response — Russia has called Trump's actions hypocritical. China is Iran's largest oil buyer. Any coordinated response would escalate this beyond a regional conflict.

👉 Speed of resolution — In June 2025, the Israel-Iran exchange resulted in a ceasefire within 11 days. Markets recovered quickly. If this follows that playbook, the selloff is a buying opportunity. If Trump's "regime change" rhetoric means a sustained campaign, we are in a fundamentally different macro environment.

👉 Fed reaction function — The Fed cannot cut rates into an oil shock. If inflation expectations reprice higher, the "higher for longer" narrative returns with a vengeance.

Try Silvia for free: https://t.co/bMI7hLeciU

[Anthony Pompliano 🌪 @APompliano]

Bitcoin is a volatile asset.

It went from $0.01 to $126,000 in about 15 years. There were many 50-85% drawdowns along the way.

Bitcoin has averaged a Global Financial Crisis every 18 months for the last decade.

Yet bitcoiners continue to hold through all the noise. The blockchain produces block-after-block of transactions.

And the critics take their “victory laps” during the drawdowns, only to get their faces ripped off a few months later in a bull market by the best performing asset since 2010.

It is a story as old as time.

Let the critics celebrate today. They will predict the death of bitcoin for the thousandth time. They will point and laugh at those who hold the asset.

But secretly they know the truth.

Their dollars will continue to devalue and bitcoin will appreciate over the long run.

Scarcity never goes out of style.