Tuomas Kanervala

Guru in sports betting, sports predictions and other sports related business...as well as some number crunching for elections.

[Tuomas Kanervala @kanervala]

@ToddFuhrman Our model has Pittsburgh Steelers at 65% to win, projected score 21.1-27.1.

[Tuomas Kanervala @kanervala]

65% is our model's number on the Steelers, market has them at 57% against the Browns. our model's projected score sits at 27-21. which number are you trusting more here?

[Tuomas Kanervala @kanervala]

@Dfs4Everyone 51% on Yankees per our model, projected total 3.5-3.6 runs for this matchup.

[Tuomas Kanervala @kanervala]

55% is our model's number for the Cubs, well above the market's 46% for the same side. Projected score sits at 4.4-3.8. Model favourite, market underdog.

[Tuomas Kanervala @kanervala]

@Covers @Covers_josh Our model gives Philadelphia Eagles a 52% edge over Chicago Bears, projecting a close 20.3-21.2 finish.

[Tuomas Kanervala @kanervala]

Our model has the Eagles at 52% against the market's 65%, with a projected 21-20 game. That's a real gap between us and the market on how close this actually is.

[Tuomas Kanervala @kanervala]

54% is our model's number on the Orioles here, against 45% in the market, with Baltimore projected 3.8-3.6 in New York. Model favourite, market underdog.

[Tuomas Kanervala @kanervala]

@PatrickE_Vegas @BetMGM @HardRockBet @DKSports 54% Packers, projected 20.7-18.8 from our model — line movement toward Green Bay lines up with a closer game than the wider number implied.

[Tuomas Kanervala @kanervala]

@SerpentinoAngel 52% on Milwaukee Brewers in our model, projected 3.5-3.9 runs.

[Tuomas Kanervala @kanervala]

66% for the Astros in our model, projected to win 4.8-3.1, against a market that has them at just 43%. That gap is the whole angle. Does the market catch up before first pitch?

[Tuomas Kanervala @kanervala]

59% for the Dodgers from our model, projected at 3.7-4.2 over the Padres, versus 53% priced into the market. Six points apart isn't nothing. Worth asking why the gap exists.

[Tuomas Kanervala @kanervala]

6.7 runs is our model's projected total for Jays-Orioles, well under the 8.5 line. Model gives just 29% for the over on 8.5. Where's the value if the number itself is that far off?

[Tuomas Kanervala @kanervala]

@teddy_covers @WagerTalk 71% on Chiefs from our model for that SNF matchup, projected 31.6-21.5.

[Tuomas Kanervala @kanervala]

Our model has the Eagles at 60% to beat the Titans, the market's up at 74% for Philadelphia. That's a real gap on the same game. Projected score sits at 22-18. Which number is closer to right?

[Tuomas Kanervala @kanervala]

62% for the Mets at home from our model, well clear of the market's 53% on the same side. Projected score sits at 4.0-4.9. Model or market number, which feels closer to right?

[Tuomas Kanervala @kanervala]

Our model gives the Red Sox 56% to win at Tampa Bay, projecting a 4.6-4.1 edge, well above the market's 47% for Boston. Market has this closer to a coin flip than our model does.

[Tuomas Kanervala @kanervala]

Our model has the Bills at 50% to beat the Lions, well off the market's 67%. Projected score sits at 27-28. That gap between our number and the market's is the whole disagreement here.

[Tuomas Kanervala @kanervala]

@Covers @PolymarketSport @Covers_josh 54% Angels per our model, projected 3.8-3.7 — closer than the "sweep" narrative suggests.

[Tuomas Kanervala @kanervala]

54% is our model's number for the Angels here, well above the market's 44%. Projected score sits at 3.7-3.8. Market favors Mariners, our model doesn't agree.

[Tuomas Kanervala @kanervala]

54% our model gives the White Sox, against 46% from the market, with Cleveland priced as favourite there. Our model's projected score has Chicago ahead, 4.8-4.1. Model favourite or market's?