🧠 Margaret Hermann Award. Best Use of Text Analysis in Leadership Studies Winner: Andrew Kenealy, Duke University and Brown University.
Paper: “The Voice of Congress on War and Diplomacy, 1965 to 2022.��
1/ Excited to announce a new paper on credibility in IR in @The_JOP with @Trent_Oll and @sojinlee123!
The intuition here is that observers might be able to suss out what seem like 'mistaken' signals of resolve. A thread...
https://t.co/1ygFLBmkyE
6/ We think our findings have a few implications—one is that the 'folk' version of deterrence theory to which citizens on average subscribe may be surprisingly urbane. A second is that leaders seeking credibility might take care to convey deliberation as well as determination.
"Taken together, these three accessible and politically viable messaging approaches—strength in numbers; policy, not president; and move first and persist—might help legislators amplify their influence over public opinion and, in turn, over U.S. foreign policy," writes @KenealyAM.
A bit belated to post this (is anyone still on here?), but I defended last month. I'm grateful to my mentors and friends @DukePoliSci and in Durham, whom I will miss. Very excited (and, again, grateful) for the next step: a postdoc at @Watson_School.
Trump has overridden a remarkable range of political norms. Yet Patrick and I show that, at least when it comes to bombing Iran, Trump largely did what Congress wanted. For better or for worse, there’s been overwhelming R and even some limited D support.
Check out @KenealyAM and my new Lawfare piece using AI to measure lawmaker sentiment toward the Iran strikes last month. Punchline: more support than you might have imagined, both before and after.
Questions about how the “war powers” work in practice? Check out my piece in @apsrjournal. TL;DR President is far more constrained by Congress that usually realized.
Kenealy’s research examines connections between domestic politics and international relations, with a focus on U.S. foreign policy. His dissertation explains patterns of polarization in congressional expression and public opinion on foreign relations from 1945 to 2022. https://t.co/0PJl4yVTTa
I'm also excited that a paper I wrote on the connections between domestic politics & IR is now published in @JPR_journal! It presents the 'democratic patience', and finds that democracies are slower to resort to violence during interstate crises.
https://t.co/D8JPGmGW4p
The article theoretically specifies why we might observe such a phenomenon, tests the association between democratic political institutions and crisis response timing, and illustrates the mechanisms that it proposes drive the association with two brief case studies.