Tom Keogh

decision science | risk quant | live music fan | sailboat racing - not always in that order

[Tom Keogh @keoght]

@GrammarGirl
https://t.co/1OkeHutI4k

[RC deWinter @RCdeWinter]

A grammar book walks into a bar

* An Oxford comma walks into a bar, where it spends the evening watching the television, getting drunk, and smoking cigars.

* A dangling participle walks into a bar. Enjoying a cocktail and chatting with the bartender, the evening passes pleasantly.

* A bar was walked into by the passive voice.

* An oxymoron walked into a bar, and the silence was deafening.

* Two quotation marks walk into a “bar.”

* A malapropism walks into a bar, looking for all intents and purposes like a wolf in cheap clothing, muttering epitaphs and casting dispersions on his magnificent other, who takes him for granite.

* Hyperbole totally rips into this insane bar and absolutely destroys everything.

* A question mark walks into a bar?

* A non sequitur walks into a bar.
In a strong wind, even turkeys can fly.

* Papyrus and Comic Sans walk into a bar. The bartender says, "Get out -- we don't serve your type."

* A mixed metaphor walks into a bar, seeing the handwriting on the wall but hoping to nip it in the bud.

* A comma splice walks into a bar, it has a drink and then leaves.

* Three intransitive verbs walk into a bar. They sit. They converse. They depart.

* A synonym strolls into a tavern.

* At the end of the day, a cliché walks into a bar -- fresh as a daisy, cute as a button, and sharp as a tack.

* A run-on sentence walks into a bar it starts flirting. With a cute little sentence fragment.

* Falling slowly, softly falling, the chiasmus collapses to the bar floor.

* A figure of speech literally walks into a bar and ends up getting figuratively hammered.

* An allusion walks into a bar, despite the fact that alcohol is its Achilles heel.

* The subjunctive would have walked into a bar, had it only known.

* A misplaced modifier walks into a bar owned by a man with a glass eye named Ralph.

* The past, present, and future walked into a bar. It was tense.

* A dyslexic walks into a bra.

* A verb walks into a bar, sees a beautiful noun, and suggests they conjugate. The noun declines.

* A simile walks into a bar, as parched as a desert.

* A gerund and an infinitive walk into a bar, drinking to forget.

* A hyphenated word and a non-hyphenated word walk into a bar and the bartender nearly chokes on the irony .

– Jill Thomas Doyle

[Tom Keogh @keoght]

@baharkarakrt ~ 5.04

[Tom Keogh @keoght]

@mitpress @Harvard_Law @intisarrabb @CassSunstein @ANatapoff @ProfGuyCharles @broademily @agordonreed @lessig @YBenkler @CohenProf I'd rather entrust the government of the United States to the first 400 people listed in the Boston telephone directory than to the faculty of Harvard University.

William F. Buckley, Jr.

https://t.co/QLmRFljz03

[Tom Keogh @keoght]

@brivael Risk is good, and more risk is better - right up until you have too much.

[Tom Keogh @keoght]

@Gentleman_Ways Washington won the Revolutionary War.
Jefferson wrote The Declaration of Independence.
Madison got the Bill of Rights into The Constitution.
All three were essential.

[Tom Keogh @keoght]

@Gentleman_Ways The Who

[Tom Keogh @keoght]

I just asked my son - young professional, recent graduate - what he thinks about @ScottPelley being fired. His answer: “Who is Scott Pelley?” Proud father moment.

[Tom Keogh @keoght]

@KevinWilkizmag @VigilantFox Why only one or the other?

[Tom Keogh @keoght]

@DylanByers https://t.co/ghDKIT4Fhp

[Tom Keogh @keoght]

@charlesmurray https://t.co/s7s54nkRk8

[Brivael Le Pogam @brivael]

Gilles, je vais démonter ta prémisse de départ, parce que tout le reste de ton argument s'effondre avec elle.

Tu pars du principe qu'il faut une « sensibilité de gauche » pour ne pas laisser créver les gens de faim. C'est l'inverse total de ce que dit l'histoire économique des 50 dernières années.

Les chiffres bruts.

1990 : 2,3 milliards de personnes en pauvreté extrême. 38% de l'humanité.
2025 : 831 millions. Environ 10%.

1,5 milliard d'êtres humains sortis de la misère absolue en 35 ans. La plus grande réduction de souffrance humaine de toute l'histoire de l'espèce.

Qui a fait ça ?

Pas l'aide internationale. Pas les ONG. Pas les programmes de redistribution. Pas la « sensibilité de gauche ».

Le marché. L'ouverture commerciale. La Chine de Deng en 1978 qui abandonne le maoisme. L'Inde en 1991 qui libéralise. Le Vietnam, l'Indonésie, le Bangladesh qui s'ouvrent au capitalisme.

Les seuls endroits où l'extrême pauvreté a EXPLOSÉ sur la même période ? Le Vénézuela socialiste : de 27% de pauvres en 2008 à plus de 80% en 2018, avec une inflation de 130 000% et un Vénézuélien moyen qui a perdu 11 kilos par dénutrition. La Corée du Nord. Cuba. Le Zimbabwe de Mugabe.

La gauche ne nourrit pas les pauvres. Elle les fabrique.

Le capitalisme produit tellement de richesse que même ses « perdants » américains vivent mieux que la classe moyenne soviétique. Un pauvre US a un frigo, une voiture, un téléphone, l'air conditionné, internet. Un pauvre cubain attend du riz.

Ton argument selon lequel « le social aux USA est un désastre » repète une légende française. La réalité : le PIB par habitant américain est de 80 000$. Français : 45 000$. Un Mississippien — l'État US le plus pauvre — a un revenu médian supérieur au Français moyen.

La vérité que la gauche française refuse de regarder : dans un système libéral, il y a plus de richesse créée, plus largement distribuée, et beaucoup moins de pauvres. Partout. Sans exception. Sur toutes les périodes mesurées.

ÊTRE de gauche en 2026 face à ces données, ce n'est pas avoir de la « sensibilité ». C'est ignorer 35 ans de preuves accablantes. C'est préférer la posture morale au résultat.

La compassion sans résultats, ça s'appelle de la vanité.

[Tom Keogh @keoght]

@charlesmurray Reminds me of the story of the dean at the elite school, welcoming the new freshman class. He praised them for their admission and superior achievements - grades, test scores, class rank, etc. then he said “As of this morning, half of you are below average.”

[Tom Keogh @keoght]

@hhuntzinger @LCook63712837 @KurtSupeCPA We see this differently. If my time/risk profile is always different than the pool, why would I prefer the pool? Variance exists. Winners outweigh losers consistently over the medium to long term. It is not symmetrical. That works for me. I hope your approach works for you.

[Tom Keogh @keoght]

@nut_history Ten rings

[Tom Keogh @keoght]

@hhuntzinger @LCook63712837 @KurtSupeCPA The latter, invested in index funds and fixed income over a few decades, beats the former pretty much every time. Neither is a sure thing but the odds favor the defined contribution approach by a wide margin.

[Tom Keogh @keoght]

@hhuntzinger @LCook63712837 @KurtSupeCPA Of course there is risk in any investment plan. The relevant question is “compared to what?” One choice would be to rely on a pension manager for a defined benefit that has a finite upside. Another would be regular defined contributions, maybe supplemented by an employer match.

[Tom Keogh @keoght]

@LCook63712837 @KurtSupeCPA Yes, and the administration of it was complex and expensive too. Look up the difference between defined benefit and defined contribution plans. The latter put more responsibility on the employee but offer much better outcomes if managed responsibly.

[Tom Keogh @keoght]

@wadestotts Are you ascribing her ignorance and stupidity to her race? That sounds like a racist position you're taking @wadestotts

[Tom Keogh @keoght]

@ishapiro "Congress is like Instagram for middle aged, not fully attractive folks."

[Tom Keogh @keoght]

@OrevaZSN One more child who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.