Hard Money Kerati

Partner at Socotra Capital - I finance properties banks can't finance

[Hard Money Kerati @keratichop]

Just #Funded $2.18M purchase of a multi-tenant retail property in Antioch, CA:

- 81.23% #LTC
- $1.77M #loan amount
- Banks are hesitant on #retail properties right now
- Cross-collateralized 2 free and clear single family primary homes

I #fund #deals the #banks can't or won't💵

[IanMalcolm84 @IanMalcolm84]

A great development: The Senate voted AGAINST the NDAA 50-46, denying Israel a merger with the US.

Those 46 who voted in favor, should face charges for treason

[Ben Houselog @benlikessport]

Usually it’s called soccer

But tomorrow night in Seattle, for one day only against Belgium

It’s called Monday Night Football.

[New York Shitty @NyShittyNews]

#NYShitty🗽💩; Someone said “Trench Coat Karen got hands” 💀. Wonder how this even came to be.

[Mayor Zohran Kwame Mamdani @NYCMayor]

Today marks Nakba Day, an annual day of remembrance to commemorate the expulsion of more than 700,000 Palestinians between 1947 and 1949 during the creation of the State of Israel and the year that followed.

Inea is a New Yorker and a Nakba survivor. She shared her story with us — one of home, tradition and memory over generations.

[Glenn Diesen @Glenn_Diesen]

Jeffrey Sachs: We Are Now in the Early Days of World War III
https://t.co/GkzWPv6seU

[Patricia Marins @pati_marins64]

Day 2: Israel decimales Iranian Installations - Iran Retaliates Unprecedentedly Overnight

Israel and the US have been relentlessly bombing Iranian territory on the second day of the war, launching strikes primarily from Iraqi and Saudi airspace.

Approximately 1,000 targets have been hit in Iran, including air bases and bunkers.

The Iranian navy was also targeted, with 3 to 4 warships sunk. However, it's worth noting that only one of these vessels was modern; the others date back to the 1960s.

The hunt for Iranian missile launchers continues, with Israel striking several mobile launchers and anti-aircraft units daily. This is an extremely arduous task, as estimates from The Military Balance suggest Iran may possess up to 500 mobile launchers and hundreds of SHORAD systems.

On this second day, Iran decided to strike five bases/airports being used by US-Israel forces all at once.

The Saudi Prince Sultan Air Base was hit by multiple ballistic missiles, with several reports of smoke rising. Similarly, Iraq's Ain Al-Asad base was targeted.

But nothing compared to the intensity of the attacks on Erbil Air Base in northern Iraq and Ben Gurion Airport, which came under several ballistic missiles overnight.

And do you know what the biggest problem is? Iranian missiles are slipping through Israeli and American air defenses like a hot knife through butter.

Yesterday and today, I've shown videos where launchers fire up to 9 (or more) interceptors in attempts to down a single Iranian missile, often with little success.

Iran's retaliation against US bases in Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE continued on the second day, mainly using drones.

As I mentioned yesterday, Iran has proven that the war is only just beginning. It targeted Israeli cities with modern missiles that disperse submunitions during reentry, significantly expanding the affected areas. These missiles had never been used before in combat, showing that Iran is now deploying its most advanced systems, which are also far more resilient to interceptors.

At the current rate, interceptors will run out soon, and panic will grip both Israeli and American leadership. Both sides are failing in their primary objective: significantly reducing Iran's launch capacity, which remains high, with roughly 450 missiles and 850 drones ready in just two days.

If this pace holds, defensive munitions won't last more than 4-5 days. Based on what we've observed, Iran launches 200-220 missiles per day, while the coalition expends no fewer than 700-1,000 interceptors (or even more), with very limited success.

In the best-case scenario, this gives about 5 days of defensive ammo left; in the realistic (worst-case) scenario I've estimated from the interceptions I've seen, it's only 4 days.

This puts enormous pressure on the leaders of both countries to seek a ceasefire.

I believe that if Iran refuses a ceasefire, both Israel and the US will push for Gulf countries to enter the war, aiming to bolster defenses and deter further Iranian actions.

The entry of these countries would be paramount for the US and Israel due to their air support and, especially, their naval power.

These Gulf nations possess approximately 400 vessels, including frigates, corvettes, and patrol boats.

But until that happens, the war boils down to the same question: What runs out first, Iran's missile launch capability or the coalition's interceptors?

[Policy Tensor @policytensor]

I may have been the only analyst to predict this in advance. Now pls listen to me carefully.

The US and Israel do not have a theory of victory. There was two very hard-to-solve problems with their war planning.

— US-Israeli war aims are, preferably, to permanently remove Iran from the ranks of the confrontation states by toppling the regime; failing that, to disarm Iran by destroying its missile arsenal.

— Regime change cannot be accomplished by aerial bombardment. It has never been done. Without ground-force partners, there is no way to control political developments on the ground. Air coercion is simply not up to the task.

— What can be accomplished, if one is prepared to expend much of one’s magazine, is crippling and fragmenting the state. But that expands rather than constrains the possibility space. This is not a path to a clear victory for the Western powers.

— The second problem is even more immediate. This is the issue that the Iranian arsenal is simply too large for the US to disarm it. And now that, as I predicted, they are going for counter-value strikes on soft targets, how do you protect the oil monarchies? And if you can’t do that, then how you contain this? How do you prevent Iran from wrecking financial markets, the world economy, the Trump presidency, and the GOP for a generation?

— There are considerable risks of escalation here. The White House needs to game plan the exit plan here. There is no clear path to victory. And the risks are multiplying by the hour. You are not going to like where this ends up.

[Hard Money Kerati @keratichop]

@shanaka86 🔥

[Eric Spracklen 🇺🇸 @EricSpracklen]

America: Please arrest the pedophiles

Kash Patel:

[Hard Money Kerati @keratichop]

@JacobAShell The mountains protect the capital

[Xavier @xavierjp__]

The hero was Muslim

The shooter was mossad

thank you for coming to my ted talk

[Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand]

It looks like Trump didn't understand the immensely consequential importance of his call with Xi. Or if he did, he's hiding it very well.

This was the first call EVER requested by Xi to a U.S. president. It never happened before, all previous calls had been made at the Americans' request.

In fact the only other instance in recent decades when a Chinese leader initiated contact with an American president was on Sept. 11, 2001, when then-President Jiang Zemin sent a telegram of condolence to then-President Bush (https://t.co/GmHN7PJp9u).

So already this, in and of itself, is extraordinarily unusual.

Secondly, according to the official Chinese readout (https://t.co/ZnQnCjkxRO), the main topics of the call were Taiwan and Japan.

Chinese official expressions - those used in readouts - are extremely codified. In this specific transcript they used an expression which had never been used before in the US-China context, writing that both countries should "jointly maintain the WWII victory fruits" ("共同维护好二战胜利成果") in the fight "against fascism and militarism", which is an obvious reference to Japan (especially given the current context).

"Jointly maintain the WWII victory fruits" or versions of it (like with "defend" - "捍卫" - instead of "maintain"), has been used before in Chinese official transcripts, but almost exclusively in the China-Russia context.

For instance in the famous China-Russia joint statement on international relations (https://t.co/6hgUUyZV7C) made when Putin visited China in early February 2022, both sides said they 'firmly defend WWII victory outcomes' ("坚定捍卫二战胜利成果").

It's rather extraordinary that China now uses this expression in a US-China context, which indicates that from China's standpoint the relation with the U.S. is entering a new phase where the U.S. can be part of the same "defenders of the post-WW2 order" framework that China has built with Russia.

On Taiwan, the framing used is also completely different from anything used in previous US-China leader communications, and also more similar to the China-Russia language on the matter.

It says that Xi emphasized to Trump that "Taiwan's return to China is an important component of the post-war international order" ("台湾回归中国是战后国际秩序重要组成部分"), which looks like a Japan-centric reorientation.

This framing puts China and America on the same side when it comes to Taiwan, as co-victors of WW2, with Japan as the defeated aggressor whose seizure of Taiwan was reversed, and that reversal needs to be upheld.

Usually, Chinese language on Taiwan in US-China discussions is all about the Three Joint Communiqués as the moment when the US finally acknowledged the PRC's position after backing the losing ROC side in the Chinese Civil War. They're essentially framing the US as a former adversary who came to accept reality.

Which means this is a very significant shift in China-US diplomatic language: China is proposing to reposition the foundational narrative of US-China relations from post-Nixon to post-WWII, which would changes the very nature of the relationship, from pragmatic accommodation between adversaries to historical allies with shared responsibility.

Why do this? The instinctive interpretation would be to understand it as immediate Japan crisis management, in reaction to Japan PM's declaration that it could act militarily in a Taiwan war, as a way to delegitimize any Japanese role in Taiwan affairs as inherently revisionist.

But I think that would be the wrong read.

First of all, it seems hard to believe that China would reframe the foundational narrative of China-US relations opportunistically, just for crisis management purposes. It's far too consequential to be merely tactical.

Secondly, the fact that Xi initiated the call - again the first China-initiated call to a US president in decades - is also a tell. They wouldn't do this to deliver mere tactical crisis management language. This signals something more fundamental

Thirdly, and perhaps most importantly, there are clear signs that this reframing has been prepared long before the recent Japan crisis. Back in October, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress approved the designation of October 25th as "Taiwan Retrocession Day", a national holiday to celebrate the retrocession of Taiwan from Japan at the end of WW2. There was a big media push around this in China, which I'm familiar with because I was interviewed about it in the Global Times (https://t.co/lS5cX4ALDB).

So this is clearly part of a long-planned strategic narrative shift as opposed to something they improvised in response to recent Japan tensions.

The question remains: why? I think the most likely explanation is because China is repositioning for the post-hegemonic order, a multipolar world where China and the U.S. have a relationship as peers instead of rivals. And to anchor a peer relationship, you need a moment when the two countries actually WERE allies - which points directly to 1945, not 1972. The Nixon framework memorializes American hegemony - Washington acknowledging Beijing's position as a tactical Cold War concession; the WWII framework memorializes joint victory and shared responsibility.

When you understand this context, Trump's post about the call is genuinely hilarious. While China was attempting the most significant reframing of US-China foundational narrative in fifty years, Trump came away thinking the highlight was agricultural trade 🤣

I also wrote about this in article form on my Substack https://t.co/Q6rit0jRTW

[Candace Owens @RealCandaceO]

🚨 URGENT
Two days ago I was contacted by a high-ranking employee of the French Government. After determining this person’s position and proximity to the French couple, I have deemed the information they gave me to be credible enough to share publicly in the event that something happens.
In short, this person claims that the Macrons have executed upon and paid for my assassination. Yes, you read that correctly. More specifically, that the green light was given to a small team in National Gendamarie Intervention Group. I am told there is one Israeli that is on this assasination squad and the plans were formalized.
Again, this person provided concrete proof that they are well placed within the French government apparatus.
Further to this point, this person claims that Charlie Kirk’s assassin trained with the French legion 13th brigade with multi-state involvement.
Journalist Xavier Poussard’s life is also at risk. This is deadly serious. The head of state of France apparently wants us both dead and has authorized professional units to carry this out.
I ask that every person RETWEET and share this.
I do not know who in the American government can be trusted, since this source claims our leaders are aware. But I have more specific information which is definitively verifiable, should they care to reach out to me.
To the brave official in France who did this because they were so moved by the evil of Charlie’s public execution to risk their own life— May God bless you. Truly.

Let all be revealed.

[Jewish Voice @jewishvoicelive]

We need to support Zohran Mamdani. If Mamdani loses, Zionism will win.

If all New Yorkers want to fight against Zionism and avoid losing their city to Israel, they should vote for Mamdani.

[Jewish Voice @jewishvoicelive]

Heartiest congratulations and Mazel Tov to New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani. We are proud to endorse you and look forward to your leadership, vision, and collaboration for the betterment of our community and all New Yorkers

@ZohranKMamdani

[Adam Kinzinger (Slava Ukraini) 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @AdamKinzinger]

You’ve gotta be joking

[J.K. Rowling @jk_rowling]

If you believe free speech is for you but not your political opponents, you're illiberal.

If no contrary evidence could change your beliefs, you're a fundamentalist.

If you believe the state should punish those with contrary views, you're a totalitarian.

If you believe political opponents should be punished with violence or death, you're a terrorist.

[MLFootball @MLFootball]

ELECTRIC: #Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox running around the stadium and signing the team's song, “Mr Brightside.”

The building was literally shaking as the fans sang-along.

One of the most special wins in team history.

[Balaji @balajis]

When fiat is inflated it slowly goes to zero.
When it is frozen it temporarily goes to zero.
And when it is seized it instantly goes to zero.
But hard money cannot be inflated, frozen, or seized.

[Former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene🇺🇸 @FmrRepMTG]

Good morning to all Americans who agree that our country should not be controlled by foreign lobbyists.

I hope you have a wonderful day!